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Statistical Analysis and Observations from my last 100 Battles

Matchmaking MM Rigged Random Average Stats

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G0ClimbAR0ck #1 Posted 27 February 2019 - 09:47 PM

    Snoopy's Sopwith Camel

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Hello everyone. Due to the influx of rigged mm threads and blowout games threads popping up on the forum, I decided to do some statistical analysis of my last 100 games. Feel free to draw whatever conclusions from this as you would like. I will offer my thoughts at the end, as I am somewhat surprised by a few things.

 

First thing to take note of - my win rate is 66.12%

I will break down the stats for both solo play and platooned play in two posts.

 

Overall Win Rate - 78%     Average tier - 9.43    Average damage - 2563.69

 

Games played solo - 54 

Win Rate solo - 75.93% (41 wins, 13 losses)

22 Games played not in tier 10, 14 of which were low tier. Out of those 14, I won 12 and lost 2.

Breakdown of stats for Green and Red team:

Green WR > Red WR (41)      Green WR < Red WR (13)

33 wins, 8 Losses                    8 wins, 5 losses

*Special note about two of the losses when the Green team WR was less than the Red team WR - one game, I received a FaceTime call right when the battle started and was unable to play, resulting in my team playing 6v7 and me getting a 0 damage game. My green team win rate (including me) was 51.39%. Red had an average win rate of 52.78%

For the second game, I bounced a kill shot off the front of an IS7 in my FV215b when it was a 1v2, resulting in me losing 500 HP and then the game. I scored 5187 damage, had 4 kills, and received the consolation prize of a mastery. My green team had an average win rate of 49.96%, whereas red had an average win rate of 54.18%.

Win with the biggest difference between Green WR% > Red WR%

Green - 56.27%

Red - 50.29%

Loss with the biggest difference between Green WR% > Red WR%

Green - 56.41%

Red - 51.27%

Win with the biggest difference between Green WR% < Red WR%

Green - 50.9%

Red - 57.47%

Loss with the biggest difference between Green WR% < Red WR%

Green - 50.37%

Red - 55.28%

 

As low tier, both of my losses were when Green WR% > Red WR%

 

Average Green WR% SOLO - 53.28%

Average Green WR% SOLO EXCLUDING ME - 51.14%

Average Red WR% SOLO - 51.59%

 

There was only one game played solo when my teams win rate (including me) was under 50%.

14 out of 54 times red had a team average win rate less than 50%.



G0ClimbAR0ck #2 Posted 27 February 2019 - 09:57 PM

    Snoopy's Sopwith Camel

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  • Member since:
    10-31-2014

Stats for games played in a platoon

46 games played, 80.4% win rate. My platoon mate for all games was at 66.4%

Games where Green WR% > Red WR% - 79.54% (35 wins, 9 losses)

Win with biggest difference between Green WR% > Red WR %

Green - 57.24%

Red - 46.28%

Loss with biggest difference between Green WR% > Red WR%

Green - 58.09%

Red - 53.38%

Win with biggest difference between Green WR% < Red WR%

Green - 52.57%

Red - 54.99%

Loss with biggest difference between Green WR% < Red WR%

Not applicable

 

I player 22 games platooned not in tier 10, 14 of which were low tier. I won 12 and lost 2. Both losses were when Green WR% > Red WR%.

 

Average Green WR% PLATOONED - 55.66%

Average Green WR% PLATOONED EXCLUDING ME AND MY PLATOON MATE - 51.43%

Average Red WR% PLATOONED - 52.58%

 

Total average Green WR% for 100 games - 54.38%

Total Average Red WR% for 100 games - 52.05%

Total losses when Green WR > Red WR - 17. Total wins when Green WR > Red WR - 68

Total losses when Green WR < Red WR - 5. Total wins when Green WR < Red WR - 8



G0ClimbAR0ck #3 Posted 27 February 2019 - 10:05 PM

    Snoopy's Sopwith Camel

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    10-31-2014

Conclusions -

#1. I am honestly surprised that the average strength of my allies (excluding me and my platoon mate) as well as the average strength of the red team were all above 50%. 

#2. Having a team where your average win rate is less than that of the red team does not decide your fate. It is up to you to step up and play well.

The biggest obstacle many people are facing is the level of their own play. People simply do not have what it takes to carry a game. That is not the fault of the match maker or your allies. That is all on you.

#3. Platooning increases your chance of winning, but it is not a guarantee of success. Your team will be better (depending on who you platoon with), but so will the red team. The stats above show that - increased average win rate for the red team while platooned.

#4. The total average win rate for Green (including me and my platoon mate) was 54.38%. The total average win rate for Red was 52.05%. This is my biggest surprise. I would have expected red win rate to be less than 50%, but that was not the case. Out of the 46 games played in a platoon, there were only 4 games when red had a team average win rate less than 50%. While solo, there were only 13 out of the 54 games where red team had an average less than 50%.



_Cletus #4 Posted 27 February 2019 - 10:17 PM

    Voodoo Wizard

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Thanks for doing this.  Real world data sure does tell a story.  The fact that you bothered to keep track of your data is pretty cool, and disseminating that data to us is even cooler.

 

I do have a question.  I noticed a change a couple of months ago, I started losing a lot.  A couple of weeks ago things turned back around and seem normal to me now.  How long ago did you start recording your data?


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Conan, what is best in lifeTo crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women.


TigerBrewed #5 Posted 27 February 2019 - 10:36 PM

    Lance-corporal

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I appreciate all this data you've collected, we will put it to good use.

I checked your stats and holy cow you're a mean af tanker.  You're a text book unicum and I'm thoroughly envious lol

You played 50% of your matches in tier 9, and you recorded your stats from tier 9, and you flourished, even raising your WR through these difficult times.

Makes me wonder if this means you've been carrying your team, or player skills balance out in higher tiers and didn't see a flux of inexperienced and hard-headed players.

 

I'm curious to see more people record the statistics of games they played, from all ranges of skill levels. 

Some 40%ers, some average players and some above-average players, all players of different shapes and sizes, and also recording the individual stats of your teammates after games to see their true stats (Are they seal clubbers?  How many games do they have on record?  Most played tier in their career?  Is their periodic WR stable?).  



wannabeunicum #6 Posted 27 February 2019 - 10:57 PM

    First Sergeant

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View PostTigerBrewed, on 27 February 2019 - 10:36 PM, said:

I appreciate all this data you've collected, we will put it to good use.

I checked your stats and holy cow you're a mean af tanker.  You're a text book unicum and I'm thoroughly envious lol

You played 50% of your matches in tier 9, and you recorded your stats from tier 9, and you flourished, even raising your WR through these difficult times.

Makes me wonder if this means you've been carrying your team, or player skills balance out in higher tiers and didn't see a flux of inexperienced and hard-headed players.

 

I'm curious to see more people record the statistics of games they played, from all ranges of skill levels. 

Some 40%ers, some average players and some above-average players, all players of different shapes and sizes, and also recording the individual stats of your teammates after games to see their true stats (Are they seal clubbers?  How many games do they have on record?  Most played tier in their career?  Is their periodic WR stable?).  

its easier to carry with bad players.

This 100 battles prove that the distribution of the two teams were basically the same so if everyones skill level but urs went down you would win more.


Edited by wannabeunicum, 27 February 2019 - 10:58 PM.


G0ClimbAR0ck #7 Posted 27 February 2019 - 11:28 PM

    Snoopy's Sopwith Camel

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View Post_Cletus, on 27 February 2019 - 10:17 PM, said:

Thanks for doing this.  Real world data sure does tell a story.  The fact that you bothered to keep track of your data is pretty cool, and disseminating that data to us is even cooler.

 

I do have a question.  I noticed a change a couple of months ago, I started losing a lot.  A couple of weeks ago things turned back around and seem normal to me now.  How long ago did you start recording your data?

 

You’re welcome. The data only goes back 100 games; I went through every recorded replay in the app to pull the data. Time consuming and it would have been way easier and faster had I recorded stats after each battle. 

 

Honestly, I have not noticed anything changing in the game in the past few months or recently regarding cycles of winning/losing. Last year, I reached 66.11%, but then nose dived down to 66.05 due to me playing tier 9 and 10 more. Even with 50k+ battles, tier 10 is a learning curve and tier 9 is a good place to learn. From my stats above, I was low tier 28 out of 44 games. Learning how to deal with tier 10 tanks while driving a tier 9 is greatly beneficial, since tier 10 tanks outperform tier 9 tanks across the board.

 

Yes, the game comes goes in cycles, as my win graph on blitzstars looks like an EKG.

Spoiler

 

I have a problem driving mediums and lights, as I tend to get too aggressive at times and just yolo. Playing the waffle has helped with that, as you really cant get shot. As I’ve said in other threads, your stats are influenced by what tanks and tiers you play. To address why you are winning more now compared to before, look at the tanks you’re playing now in the last 30 compared to what you played in the last 90 days. Compare the stats. People who are losing more now compared to 90 days or lifetime need to self reflect on that as well, instead of blaming rigged matches and the matchmaker.

 

A lot of times I check the people who are complaining and notice that they are indeed losing more now compared to their lifetime, but their 30 day stats are better for the higher tiers compared to their lifetime higher tier stats, but still not above their lifetime win rate. If you’re a career 58%er with 48% career in tier 8+, but for the last 30 days you’re just playing tier 8+ and winning 51% of the games - you are playing better than ever before in the respective tiers; but because you are only winning 51% of the time, your overall win rate will be going down. This player then comes to the forums to rage about the game and how it’s unfair. Well... look at the stats. The game isn’t out to get you.


Edited by G0ClimbAR0ck, 27 February 2019 - 11:31 PM.


_Duncan_Idaho_ #8 Posted 27 February 2019 - 11:57 PM

    Senior Sergeant

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I think I would challenge your conclusion on #3. You see, I rarely platoon but often have toons on my team. The toon can generally control the fate of the team and unicums love to toon, but so do those in the sub 45% range. If you are in the latter cattegory, or even if you are an average 50%, you have a higher likelyhood of facing a unitoon than you do a randomly paired group of unicums on a red team without a toon. Therefore, your conclusion that tooning improves your chances of winning is highly dependent on the relative skill of others tooning at the same time, so it wouldn't hold true for those working up from the bottom.

 

I would state this conclusion instead: If you are tooning and your toon WR is well above average, it will help to preserve that high WR. If your toon WR is low, tooning may help but is likely to guarantee pairing against a unitoon and should be avoided. This could be mitigated somewhat if you are adding the benefit of voice communication with your toonmate.

 

If I have a low WR toon like that on my team, I try like hell to carry them, but since I am typically facing unitoons on red, it often doesn't work out for me. One thing that seems clear to me in these situations is that the unicum toon quickly realizes that I am the threat, not cause I am that great and not cause I have a recognizable clan, but simply because I engage and use basic tactics and demonstrate an understanding of the map. They ignore my teammates, eliminate me, and then proceed to cleanup the rest of my team with general ease. Sometimes, their focused fire and crossfire on me is so effective that I am barely able to contribute - likely because I am not yet an expert at using my team as a meat shield.


 

 


wannabeunicum #9 Posted 28 February 2019 - 12:16 AM

    First Sergeant

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Obviously this would have been way been way too much work but it would be interesting to see the players winrate in tier ten tanks.  I figure that should drop down to the standard 48%

G0ClimbAR0ck #10 Posted 28 February 2019 - 12:17 AM

    Snoopy's Sopwith Camel

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    10-31-2014

View Post_Duncan_Idaho_, on 27 February 2019 - 11:57 PM, said:

I think I would challenge your conclusion on #3. You see, I rarely platoon but often have toons on my team. The toon can generally control the fate of the team and unicums love to toon, but so do those in the sub 45% range. If you are in the latter cattegory, or even if you are an average 50%, you have a higher likelyhood of facing a unitoon than you do a randomly paired group of unicums on a red team without a toon. Therefore, your conclusion that tooning improves your chances of winning is highly dependent on the relative skill of others tooning at the same time, so it wouldn't hold true for those working up from the bottom.

 

I would state this conclusion instead: If you are tooning and your toon WR is well above average, it will help to preserve that high WR. If your toon WR is low, tooning may help but is likely to guarantee pairing against a unitoon and should be avoided. This could be mitigated somewhat if you are adding the benefit of voice communication with your toonmate.

 

Yes, I would agree. The point about platooning was not what I was trying to emphasize. Point of what I presented is that platooning will increase the average win rate of the red team; so yes, you will be seeing better reds when you platoon. And to be fair, I did say “depending on who you platoon with”.

 

The main conclusion I was trying to draw is that your team’s average win rate is highly reliant on you and your platoon mate, if you were to have one. As I mentioned above, green’s win rate with me was 53.2%, with me and my platoon mate it was 55.6%; however, taking me and my platoon mate out of the equation, green’s win rate is 51.1%. And red’s average win rate was 51% as well overall. So you are the deciding factor in your team’s skill.



TigerBrewed #11 Posted 28 February 2019 - 12:23 AM

    Lance-corporal

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How do your games usually end up?  Are most of your matches blow-out wins?  Or are you often coming in clutch facing multiple tanks alone or with just your toonmate?

 

View PostG0ClimbAR0ck, on 28 February 2019 - 12:17 AM, said:

So you are the deciding factor in your team’s skill.

In a nutshell git gud and carry xD



ZebraUp #12 Posted 28 February 2019 - 12:57 AM

    I want to be on the RED team!

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I wonder what the average winrate of the opposing platoons you faced were? I am guessing they were nowhere near 66% lol

 

When i see you (and a select handful of other forumers) as red i just say, "fml" Now i know if i see you in a 'toon i am truly screwed...


You gotta be Lucky or a Lion to kill a Zebra!

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G0ClimbAR0ck #13 Posted 28 February 2019 - 01:55 AM

    Snoopy's Sopwith Camel

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  • Member since:
    10-31-2014

View PostTigerBrewed, on 28 February 2019 - 12:23 AM, said:

How do your games usually end up?  Are most of your matches blow-out wins?  Or are you often coming in clutch facing multiple tanks alone or with just your toonmate?

 

In a nutshell git gud and carry xD

;)

To answer your question, the games ended how games always end. 7-0/7-1/7-2 games for wins and losses, closer games where every teammate had a kill, games where my platoonmate and I were the only ones to break 2000 when no one else crossed 900, me being carried by my platoonmate or my team, me dieing and watching a win turn in to a loss, some carries, etc.

 

View PostZebraUp, on 28 February 2019 - 12:57 AM, said:

I wonder what the average winrate of the opposing platoons you faced were? I am guessing they were nowhere near 66% lol

 

When i see you (and a select handful of other forumers) as red i just say, "fml" Now i know if i see you in a 'toon i am truly screwed...

 

When platooned, I actually came across a bunch of 60%+ platoons. Some from hated, some from krono, some from random clans.

 

I used to be adamantly opposed to playing with pc players in the combined queue due to the auto-aim from pc, but then I got sick of seeing pramo/rgn/void/pncr/grim/srt on red every other battle. The player population in the mobile queue got smaller it seemed within the past year. So I turned on the combined queue to play with both mobile and pc players. I enjoy being a shark in a sea of minnows and not seeing good players on red every other battle. 



_Cletus #14 Posted 28 February 2019 - 02:03 AM

    Voodoo Wizard

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View PostG0ClimbAR0ck, on 27 February 2019 - 05:28 PM, said:

 

You’re welcome. The data only goes back 100 games; I went through every recorded replay in the app to pull the data. Time consuming and it would have been way easier and faster had I recorded stats after each battle. 

 

Honestly, I have not noticed anything changing in the game in the past few months or recently regarding cycles of winning/losing. Last year, I reached 66.11%, but then nose dived down to 66.05 due to me playing tier 9 and 10 more. Even with 50k+ battles, tier 10 is a learning curve and tier 9 is a good place to learn. From my stats above, I was low tier 28 out of 44 games. Learning how to deal with tier 10 tanks while driving a tier 9 is greatly beneficial, since tier 10 tanks outperform tier 9 tanks across the board.

 

Yes, the game comes goes in cycles, as my win graph on blitzstars looks like an EKG.

Spoiler

 

I have a problem driving mediums and lights, as I tend to get too aggressive at times and just yolo. Playing the waffle has helped with that, as you really cant get shot. As I’ve said in other threads, your stats are influenced by what tanks and tiers you play. To address why you are winning more now compared to before, look at the tanks you’re playing now in the last 30 compared to what you played in the last 90 days. Compare the stats. People who are losing more now compared to 90 days or lifetime need to self reflect on that as well, instead of blaming rigged matches and the matchmaker.

 

A lot of times I check the people who are complaining and notice that they are indeed losing more now compared to their lifetime, but their 30 day stats are better for the higher tiers compared to their lifetime higher tier stats, but still not above their lifetime win rate. If you’re a career 58%er with 48% career in tier 8+, but for the last 30 days you’re just playing tier 8+ and winning 51% of the games - you are playing better than ever before in the respective tiers; but because you are only winning 51% of the time, your overall win rate will be going down. This player then comes to the forums to rage about the game and how it’s unfair. Well... look at the stats. The game isn’t out to get you.

 

Yessir, I've been resisting the tinfoil theories.  What makes me think something changed was the Jackson.  I was getting close to the top of the board in it (30 days NA) running about 70% winrate, which for me was spectacular.  I started playing in higher tiers at the same time and then my winrate turned into a poop party.  So I went back down and started playing my old favorite op tanks and still lost.  I dunno, it probably was all in my head (probably subconsciously brainwashed by certain forumers) and I never really thought it was mm, I just didn't and still do not know what happened.  Was it my biggest slump?  I just felt like I was hearing the same from other people at the same time.  What's making me think it was possibly just my biggest slump is that mine is turning around and nobody else is saying theirs is.


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Conan, what is best in lifeTo crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women.


__V_O_P__ #15 Posted 28 February 2019 - 02:09 AM

    Sergeant

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View PostG0ClimbAR0ck, on 27 February 2019 - 10:05 PM, said:

Conclusions -

#1. I am honestly surprised that the average strength of my allies (excluding me and my platoon mate) as well as the average strength of the red team were all above 50%. 

#2. Having a team where your average win rate is less than that of the red team does not decide your fate. It is up to you to step up and play well.

The biggest obstacle many people are facing is the level of their own play. People simply do not have what it takes to carry a game. That is not the fault of the match maker or your allies. That is all on you.

#3. Platooning increases your chance of winning, but it is not a guarantee of success. Your team will be better (depending on who you platoon with), but so will the red team. The stats above show that - increased average win rate for the red team while platooned.

#4. The total average win rate for Green (including me and my platoon mate) was 54.38%. The total average win rate for Red was 52.05%. This is my biggest surprise. I would have expected red win rate to be less than 50%, but that was not the case. Out of the 46 games played in a platoon, there were only 4 games when red had a team average win rate less than 50%. While solo, there were only 13 out of the 54 games where red team had an average less than 50%.

 

Likewise thanks for doing the work. I would say that both you as an individual and especially double you in that toon are not really the experience of a majority of the player base. These data are not going to resonate with normal people - it’s kinda like following the advice of elite athletes or successful stoke brokers - it doesn’t apply to most folks. 

 

That said kudos to you both for the stats but also for the message - that people should play like it matters. 


Edited by __V_O_P__, 28 February 2019 - 02:10 AM.


CA_vampire #16 Posted 28 February 2019 - 02:16 AM

    First Sergeant

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Statistics from a single player show absolutely nothing. If the MM+RNG has any bias (win rate, number of games played, spending, etc etc etc) ... then the single player carries all that bias with him. So there is no way to get any conclusions about MM+RNG from a single player, or even from a few players. It is like me collecting statistical data about the mpg of my car for a particular trip, and then  generalizing about the mpg of all the cars in North America... ... ... while my car might be a Tesla! 

 

 



Morphman11 #17 Posted 28 February 2019 - 02:50 AM

    Senior Sergeant

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MM is rigged. I can yolo like a moron and still win 7/10 times.

Spoiler

 



Gavidoc01 #18 Posted 28 February 2019 - 03:29 PM

    Platinum Card Wallet Warrior

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View PostG0ClimbAR0ck, on 27 February 2019 - 05:05 PM, said:

Conclusions -

#1. I am honestly surprised that the average strength of my allies (excluding me and my platoon mate) as well as the average strength of the red team were all above 50%. 

#2. Having a team where your average win rate is less than that of the red team does not decide your fate. It is up to you to step up and play well.

The biggest obstacle many people are facing is the level of their own play. People simply do not have what it takes to carry a game. That is not the fault of the match maker or your allies. That is all on you.

#3. Platooning increases your chance of winning, but it is not a guarantee of success. Your team will be better (depending on who you platoon with), but so will the red team. The stats above show that - increased average win rate for the red team while platooned.

#4. The total average win rate for Green (including me and my platoon mate) was 54.38%. The total average win rate for Red was 52.05%. This is my biggest surprise. I would have expected red win rate to be less than 50%, but that was not the case. Out of the 46 games played in a platoon, there were only 4 games when red had a team average win rate less than 50%. While solo, there were only 13 out of the 54 games where red team had an average less than 50%.

 

Your assessment in #2 is essentially it. Many of us who have tracked battles to show that MM isn't rigged the way players says have all come to similar conclusions. 

 

Impact to WR is directly proportional to your own individual skill. 

 

Here is what I said just the other day.

Block Quote

 Your third point is correct. I made the same comment a few months ago. Those who are really good at the game are still able to carry and perform at a level where they see a smaller impact vs those who aren’t. A 60% plus player will have a smaller curve to overcome vs a 50-59% player. When you add in the fact that some of those 60% plus players attained that in the old +/-2 mm, the gap is even greater.

 

 

Well done and thanks for doing the tracking to continually reinforce the MM rigged counterpoint.

 


Edited by Gavidoc01, 28 February 2019 - 03:30 PM.

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I'm a Platinum Card Wallet Warrior.

You’re welcome for supporting the game. 


__Crusader6__ #19 Posted 28 February 2019 - 03:38 PM

    Annoying Mod

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GoClimb - best way to do this that I’ve found is to dump your replays into discord on a server with wotbot. - it will do all of the stats for you, including battle counts and avg damage as well as WR.  

 

I started doing this as it was significantly easier than by previous screen shot and Blitzstars Manual Entry method.  

   Now I dump Screenshots of the WOTBOT printout into excel and just take that data.  

 

Data I have from my last 500 games has a distinct trend - avg dmg from both green and red are significantly lower than previous.  

   I’ll do a data dump tomorrow as long as it’s not a snow day for my kids (argh Winter Warning for end of Feb in Virginia WTF) 


 
Tank Hoarder: 365 tanks in Garage:  366/368 aced (AMX 30B, Mk1 and T49A repo),    wallet warrior.  Loyal M60 owner
I think 5.5 was good for the game - But I also want my Kenny OP nerfed. 
Sorry I haven’t aced the Smasher yet - So I’m still ruining tier 6-8 

 


G0ClimbAR0ck #20 Posted 28 February 2019 - 03:57 PM

    Snoopy's Sopwith Camel

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View Post__Crusader6__, on 28 February 2019 - 03:38 PM, said:

GoClimb - best way to do this that I’ve found is to dump your replays into discord on a server with wotbot. - it will do all of the stats for you, including battle counts and avg damage as well as WR.  

 

I started doing this as it was significantly easier than by previous screen shot and Blitzstars Manual Entry method.  

   Now I dump Screenshots of the WOTBOT printout into excel and just take that data.  

 

Data I have from my last 500 games has a distinct trend - avg dmg from both green and red are significantly lower than previous.  

   I’ll do a data dump tomorrow as long as it’s not a snow day for my kids (argh Winter Warning for end of Feb in Virginia wth) 

 

Thanks for the tip, I’ll have to check this bot out. Had no idea.





Also tagged with Matchmaking, MM, Rigged, Random, Average, Stats

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