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Maverick's Minute Pt. 4: Making Predictions

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__Frostbite #1 Posted 12 March 2019 - 05:49 PM

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Hey all,

 

Thought I'd go into more detail today about one of the necessary habits for all unicums. 

Here is Part 4 of my Forum-exclusive series called "Maverick's Minute". If you know what this is, just skip this little intro. If you're just clicking on this for the first time and don't know what this is, let me explain. In these short but percise threads, I attempt to give my take on an opinion or give some advice about WoT Blitz. They are structured to give a main arguing point and leave room for discussion below. They should be short enough to be read in only a few minutes. Fair warning, however: this one should take quite more than just a few minutes to read.

 

Again, if you missed the previous 2 episodes, they can be found here: 

Part 1: http://forum.wotblitz.com/index.php?/topic/99555-mavericks-minute-pt-1-why-medium-tanks-are-still-relevant-at-tier-10/page__fromsearch__1 
Part 2: http://forum.wotblitz.com/index.php?/topic/99857-mavericks-minute-pt-2-situational-awareness-impact/page__p__1564712#entry1564712

Part 3: http://forum.wotblitz.com/index.php?/topic/100332-mavericks-minute-pt-3-how-can-i-git-gud-in-5-minutes/

 


 

Making predictions? "All I'm predicting in this game is the [edited]RNG and MM that I'm predicting I'll get." says hopefully no one but unfortunately droves of people. Well if you're in that mindset, I'd certainly understand why you're resorting to blaming RNG and MM. Making predictions is an essential piece of winning games, and without them, you might as well drive around blind. 

So how do I make predictions, if they're so useful? Well, let's take a look at what a prediction is first. 
Google defines the verb "to predict" as "say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something." Well, in order to make a prediction on such an event in the future, one should use prior knowledge and/or logic in order to develop a proper prediction. Making a prediction without using prior knowledge or logic is called "being ignorant."

So, let's talk about how that relates to World of Tanks Blitz. There is really a vast amount of information available in order to make these predictions, so let's talk about the different types of information. 

 

Prior knowledge is the first one. 

Best way to learn this: battle experience. People that have hit the "Battle!" button more have an advantage over people with less battles. They've seen more scenarios happen on the battlefield, they've played the maps more and have learned specific spots on the map for various tanks in order to help them carry out their role, they've played their tank more and are more comfortable with it, they have the game mechanics memorized, and they even recognize specific clans or players in battle.This is all why someone that sits down for the first time and plays Blitz HAS to do poorly in the beginning. Everyone starts as a noob. If you make a mistake in a game, hopefully you won't be making that mistake anymore. When you've played thousands of battles, you start to gain a sense of how something is going to play out. Even though there's no possible way to account for every single last scenario, by playing a lot, one will gain a sense of what is most likely going to happen, and will be able to set themselves (and hopefully their team as well) into a position where they can gain the upper hand. 
How to account for this without having the luxury of playing thousands of battles (i want to git gud RIGHT NOW): watch YouTube videos, read forum threads like this one, platoon with players with more game experience. Play tournaments! Honestly, having to call for a tournament team for a few months taught me more about strategy than I could have learned from playing public matches for a year. By participating on a tournament team, you're forced to learn specific map positions that are essential in carrying out the battle plan. Having to call forces you to make up a strategy which should be utilizing specific map positions. The more you built your team into playing more regularly, the better you'll carry out the strategy. 

 

Logic is the other part of this information.  
Best way to have logic: be smart. Seriously, you need to be able to rationalize situations quickly and get in the mindset of the enemy player. I realize that you can't just simulate an entire battle in your head while in battle, and why should anyone. I mean, you need some prior knowledge first (oh, a Comet platoon is capable of massive DPM) but then logic steps in later, when you see an enemy Comet platoon, the map is Middleburg, and the enemy team also has 2 others mediums and 1 extra light. You should realize that the Comets will be begging the team to go hills, because they can better utilize their turret armor and gun depression, and because they'll already have 5 tanks up on the hills already. That's a relatively simple logical prediction. 

How about a harder one? There's 2 minutes left on the game clock and its a 1v1 situation. You're in an ISU-152, not particularly the best tank to be in at this moment, because the enemy tank remaining is an STA-1. Your health is at 432 HP, and the enemy STA is at 857 HP. The map is Canal, and its Encounter Mode. You're currently at the South Spawn, driving to A. You were last spotted driving away from C to the South Spawn. The STA was last spotted in the canal, right in the middle of the map. We know that if the ISU is caught out in the open, it's going to tracked and circled. Honestly, the best move would be to camp behind a bush. I'd go up to A and drive up the slope in the corner of the map, it's probably the closest safe area where you can watch both lanes from A, hide behind a tree, and most likely even outspot the STA-1. Then, the waiting game starts. 

Let's take the situation and reverse it. Same thing, except you're the STA-1. Having thought all of this out, it's going to be the natural assumption that the ISU is going to camp. I know that I'm a one shot if the ISU gets my side, and that he's a 2 shot for my gun. What I would do is wait for the ISU to find its position (id probably wait about 45 seconds-1 minute. Then, I would cautiously make my way to the cap circle. What I'm trying to do is merely draw the ISU out. I don't plan on actually capping, the ISU will have plenty of time to find a bush and kill me while I'm in the cap. No, I intend to get the cap to about 30 or so, and then run back into the Canal. Hopefully, the ISU will have left its position to go reset the cap, and will be vulnerable. I'd turn left facing where D cap would be, and try to spot the ISU, and hopefully get some shots in.

There's no guarantee that this exact scenario would turn out to be a win. I mean, RNG could easily just mess up the shots, or the ISU does something completely unexpected. There is really no guaranteed chance with making predictions. That said, there's no point about griping about things that you can't affect, and by learning how to make predictions, you're doing your teammates and yourself a favor.

Thanks,
Maverick


Find me on the official Blitz discord server or send me a PM on the forums if you want to contact me. I quit playing. Yeah.

__Frostbite #2 Posted 12 March 2019 - 09:55 PM

    Ribble4Prez2020

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quiet today, isn't it :(
Find me on the official Blitz discord server or send me a PM on the forums if you want to contact me. I quit playing. Yeah.

tanker070 #3 Posted 13 March 2019 - 01:39 AM

    The Nitwit

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multimedia approach will do great for this topic.
(ya i want this in video)

Commentary tanking →_→ #tankerTalks

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pro tip: Take Deep Breaths Often.


zulton55 #4 Posted 13 March 2019 - 02:24 AM

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Looks good Maverick.

 

I checked your TD location map and agree with them.  I have either been there, or shot tanks there.



FlammeumDraco333 #5 Posted 13 March 2019 - 03:06 AM

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These are some really well put together guides! Looking forward to seeing more!

View PostSystemrename, on 03 February 2015 - 04:06 PM, said:

Whatever, since people seem content with the plain oleophobic coating and dragging their meaty, calloused workman's thumbs around like proto-lizards sliding up out of the primordial ooze onto dry land, it's just more for me.  I'm happy to float on fiber and run circles around you filthy casuals. Eat my dust, snail thumbs.

 Sauce

If þou hæst ane anime līcnesse, þīne opinīoun mēneþ no-þing.

 


AntoineDodson #6 Posted 08 May 2019 - 05:40 PM

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View Postzulton55, on 12 March 2019 - 08:24 PM, said:

Looks good Maverick.

 

I checked your TD location map and agree with them.  I have either been there, or shot tanks there.

 

Anyone have a link to this?
Hide your kids, hide your wife
And hide your husband
Cuz they’re derpin errbody out here

TengenToppaPotatoLagann #7 Posted 08 May 2019 - 09:34 PM

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View PostAntoineDodson, on 08 May 2019 - 12:40 PM, said:

 

Anyone have a link to this?

 

probably a typo, rather than a td location map with mapped out camping spots : map location - as in the A-cap corner on canal that was talked about.
 

though if there was such a guide, with every map and every critical choke point and where to cover it from... well yeah, link plz op


>>>canine prints have claw marks, yet "mans best friend" camo does not; it would seem then that mans best friend is a cat... probably a leopard.

View Postminitel_NA, on 13 January 2018 - 03:06 AM, said:

when I’m tired I think I’m good.


__Frostbite #8 Posted 09 May 2019 - 07:42 AM

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View PostTengenToppaPotatoLagann, on 08 May 2019 - 01:34 PM, said:

 

probably a typo, rather than a td location map with mapped out camping spots : map location - as in the A-cap corner on canal that was talked about.
 

though if there was such a guide, with every map and every critical choke point and where to cover it from... well yeah, link plz op

 

there are heatmaps, but i don't really have map guides like that. perhaps something i'll do in the future. honestly, that'd be like cheating...
Find me on the official Blitz discord server or send me a PM on the forums if you want to contact me. I quit playing. Yeah.





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