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Your chance of winning a T-22 from crates


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HugGigolo #1 Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:34 PM

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Made this for the subreddit, thought I'd post it here also.

 

 

In table form:
 

No. of crates (USD) Chance of win Chance of No Tank
2 crates ($9.99) 9.75% 90.25%
6 crates ($50) 26.49% 73.51%
12 crates ($100) 45.96% 54.04%
18 crates ($150) 60.28% 39.72%
24 crates ($200) 70.80% 29.20%
30 crates ($250)

78.54%

21.46%

 

Some thoughts:

  • Unlike some crate offers, there is no secondary mechanism which secures the tank with X number of crates. Conceivably, you can spend forever and still never win.
  • Your chance of winning the tank doesn’t get above 50% until 14 crates.
  • Therefore the 2-crate deal plus two 6-crate bundles will give you a 51.23% chance of winning the T-22 for the bargain price of $109.97 USD.
  • You can spend $250 on 30 crates and still have a greater than 1 in 5 chance of winning no tank at all. This is a mug’s game.

My recommendation: NEVER BUY CRATES!
But, if you absolutely must have a go, the one-time 2 crate deal for $9.99 offers the best value. And you won’t feel sick if you lose.

 


 

Every time there's a post like this, there's someone who pops up and says "This is wrong, percentage chance is always the same no matter how many you buy!" This is both true and not true.

To explain I'm going to shamelessly steal an analogy from someone else.

  • If you have 1 covered basket with 1 red ball and 9 white balls and you put your hand under the cover to blindly grab a ball, you have a 10% chance of getting a red ball.
  • If you have 100 such baskets, you still have only a 10% chance of getting a red ball .... true, but only on a per-basket basis.

Remember your objective is to own the tank once leave with a red ball.

Imagine you go to a Fair with your girlfriend and for some reason, she really wants a red ball. You really want to get one for her but there's only a 10% chance, right? But it turns out that you get to choose between two tents.

  • Tent A has 1 basket.
  • Tent B has 100 baskets. You get to try them all!

Do both tents offer an equal chance of leaving with a happy girlfriend? At this point it should be intuitively obvious that Tent B, with 100 * 10% chances, offers a vastly better chance of leaving the Fair with a red ball (probably more than one, but not what we need) than Tent A. Binomial probability is a way to put a number on that chance. You can read more about that here.

Attached Files

  • Attached File   T-22 Chart.png   45.38K

Edited by HugGigolo, 16 August 2019 - 07:07 PM.


Fu_Manchu_ #2 Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:36 PM

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Thanks for doing the math and presenting the results in a nice, easy to use visual. I'm shocked that anyone would spend money on these crates.

 

P.S. Cue the folks who don't understand the math.


AKA HanYolo_.


cheesehead247365 #3 Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:46 PM

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I'll take Business Ethics



Absolute_Sniper #4 Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:49 PM

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This chart is all wrong. I have a zero percent chance because I don’t waste money on crates. Just sell the dang tank WG....

I used to have a picture here but tiny pic took an arrow to the knee....

 

https://discord.gg/twdc4Dq

 


_Cletus #5 Posted 16 August 2019 - 07:03 PM

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Boris5's has 100% chance of winning.

https://www.blitzstars.com/api/sigs/com/1019725659.png   Avatar and sig by crpl_hicks

 

sFkBFSc.jpg

 

Fu_Manchu_ #6 Posted 16 August 2019 - 07:11 PM

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View PostAbsolute_Sniper, on 16 August 2019 - 11:49 AM, said:

This chart is all wrong. I have a zero percent chance because I don’t waste money on crates. Just sell the dang tank WG....

 

The chart is correct. I also have a zero percent change and the chart does in fact show that.


AKA HanYolo_.


DestructSean #7 Posted 16 August 2019 - 07:18 PM

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View PostHugGigolo, on 16 August 2019 - 06:34 PM, said:

Made this for the subreddit, thought I'd post it here also.

 

 

In table form:
 

No. of crates (USD) Chance of win Chance of No Tank
2 crates ($9.99) 9.75% 90.25%
6 crates ($50) 26.49% 73.51%
12 crates ($100) 45.96% 54.04%
18 crates ($150) 60.28% 39.72%
24 crates ($200) 70.80% 29.20%
30 crates ($250)

78.54%

21.46%

 

Some thoughts:

  • Unlike some crate offers, there is no secondary mechanism which secures the tank with X number of crates. Conceivably, you can spend forever and still never win.
  • Your chance of winning the tank doesn’t get above 50% until 14 crates.
  • Therefore the 2-crate deal plus two 6-crate bundles will give you a 51.23% chance of winning the T-22 for the bargain price of $109.97 USD.
  • You can spend $250 on 30 crates and still have a greater than 1 in 5 chance of winning no tank at all. This is a mug’s game.

My recommendation: NEVER BUY CRATES!
But, if you absolutely must have a go, the one-time 2 crate deal for $9.99 offers the best value. And you won’t feel sick if you lose.

 


 

Every time there's a post like this, there's someone who pops up and says "This is wrong, percentage chance is always the same no matter how many you buy!" This is both true and not true.

To explain I'm going to shamelessly steal an analogy from someone else.

  • If you have 1 covered basket with 1 red ball and 9 white balls and you put your hand under the cover to blindly grab a ball, you have a 10% chance of getting a red ball.
  • If you have 100 such baskets, you still have only a 10% chance of getting a red ball .... true, but only on a per-basket basis.

Remember your objective is to own the tank once leave with a red ball.

Imagine you go to a Fair with your girlfriend and for some reason, she really wants a red ball. You really want to get one for her but there's only a 10% chance, right? But it turns out that you get to choose between two tents.

  • Tent A has 1 basket.
  • Tent B has 100 baskets. You get to try them all!

Do both tents offer an equal chance of leaving with a happy girlfriend? At this point it should be intuitively obvious that Tent B, with 100 * 10% chances, offers a vastly better chance of leaving the Fair with a red ball (probably more than one, but not what we need) than Tent A. Binomial probability is a way to put a number on that chance. You can read more about that here.


This is correct. 



boris55555 #8 Posted 16 August 2019 - 08:09 PM

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View Post_Cletus, on 16 August 2019 - 02:03 PM, said:

Boris5's has 100% chance of winning.


yep. True. As undeserving a mortal as there ever was. I have never been a proponent of the gambling crates.

 

but I have come around on this a little bit. It’s the extra crate that op mentions. I looked at the prizes. It looked to me that I could get $10 worth of pixel value out of the crates if I didn’t get tank.  So I bought the crates assuming that I would not get the tank but instead $10 ($5 per crate given the “free” extra crate)worth of gold, free xp and boosters. And that’s what happened: 1500 gold, various xp and boosters. That’s when I noticed you could do it 2x. I thought: welp, I got $10 of value, I’m willing to go one more time. 3rd crate was the charm, and 4th crate gave up another approximately $5 in value.

 

ive disliked the crates before but I’m good to go if I get the value either way. 


Positive Vibes: The only way I got to keep them Tigers busy is to LET THEM SHOOT HOLES IN ME!  To a New Yorker like (me), a hero is some type of weird sandwich, not some nut who takes on three Tigers.

Absolute_Sniper #9 Posted 16 August 2019 - 10:41 PM

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View PostFu_Manchu_, on 16 August 2019 - 07:11 PM, said:

 

The chart is correct. I also have a zero percent change and the chart does in fact show that.

Indeed it does. I stand corrected 


I used to have a picture here but tiny pic took an arrow to the knee....

 

https://discord.gg/twdc4Dq

 


Dark_Magician_Girl #10 Posted 16 August 2019 - 10:58 PM

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Crates is a pointless waste of money.  If I wanted to gamble, I'd go to the casino.

STAR1 NA top 10 all-time ranked player - Blitzstars NA top 10 most winning all-time ranked player - Blitzstars NA top 10 highest career WN8 all-time ranked player - #1 ranked driver E75 STAR1 - Blitzstars 48 different vehicles with top 10 all-time NA WN8 - 35+ unique career 3000+ damage averages at high tiers - Captain of 3 top 8 NA tournament appearances - Content creator of map meta defining Blitz YT content - 1 of 3 Bushka masterclass candidates.

 

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twirlingtowardsfreedom #11 Posted 16 August 2019 - 11:09 PM

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At least this all but guarantees that we will have a chance to use gold on this at the winter fair.

Absolute_Sniper #12 Posted 16 August 2019 - 11:34 PM

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View Posttwirlingtowardsfreedom, on 16 August 2019 - 11:09 PM, said:

At least this all but guarantees that we will have a chance to use gold on this at the winter fair.

That would be nice but I wouldn’t hold my breath. WG knows how coveted this tank is and I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets the crate treatment multiple times....


I used to have a picture here but tiny pic took an arrow to the knee....

 

https://discord.gg/twdc4Dq

 


_LOONA #13 Posted 16 August 2019 - 11:51 PM

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You dont need to do math to know that crate gambling never works.

 

 


VonMiller58 #14 Posted 17 August 2019 - 01:39 AM

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that sucks

 

probably get a nerf or something anyways

 

bought chieftain and I hear it got a turret armor nerf...Lame


o...:...:I:...:...o

    ..58..58..


ZebraUp #15 Posted 17 August 2019 - 03:39 AM

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I decided to take a chance and bought the two crates for $9.99 today and got the T-22... TWICE!! 

You gotta be Lucky or a Lion to kill a Zebra!

"In the absence of orders, go find something and kill it."
- Field Marshal Erwin Rommel

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Absolute_Sniper #16 Posted 17 August 2019 - 04:15 AM

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Y’all do realize that if people continue to buy them, they will never stop selling tanks in crates. Free market and all that.....

I used to have a picture here but tiny pic took an arrow to the knee....

 

https://discord.gg/twdc4Dq

 


boris55555 #17 Posted 17 August 2019 - 04:15 AM

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View PostZebraUp, on 16 August 2019 - 10:39 PM, said:

I decided to take a chance and bought the two crates for $9.99 today and got the T-22... TWICE!! 

Well, you summoned it with the dark arts...so you deserved it. Congrats. 


Positive Vibes: The only way I got to keep them Tigers busy is to LET THEM SHOOT HOLES IN ME!  To a New Yorker like (me), a hero is some type of weird sandwich, not some nut who takes on three Tigers.

andyllinger #18 Posted 17 August 2019 - 05:51 AM

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View PostZebraUp, on 16 August 2019 - 10:39 PM, said:

I decided to take a chance and bought the two crates for $9.99 today and got the T-22... TWICE!! 

I hate you...

 

 

 

 

I bought 4 and got nothing...


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Ronin_23 #19 Posted 17 August 2019 - 05:56 AM

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View Postandyllinger, on 17 August 2019 - 05:51 AM, said:

I hate you...

 

 

 

 

I bought 4 and got nothing...

 

Just think about how I blew $70+ on the Badger crates and didn't even get a paltry sum of gold to soften the blow. Might help you feel better.



9_V0LT #20 Posted 17 August 2019 - 07:37 AM

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My brother carnage and I both bought the 2 crates for $9 deal.

I got gold and boosters

He got a T-22

 

I play all the time.

He plays a couple of battles a month.

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 


Yeah, I'm back. Let's not make a big deal about this.





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