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Your chance of winning a T-22 from crates


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EricOtown #21 Posted 17 August 2019 - 10:25 AM

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I understand the odds. It's gambling. I got spoiled when the first crate I ever bought, I won tank with 5% drop chance. I realize I got super lucky, but it irrational made me think that could happen again. So I told myself that I would just buy one of the 2 crates deals for $9.99. If I won the T-22 great, but if not no big deal only out $10 bucks. But regardless win or lose, I told myself that I definitely wasn't gonna buy any more crates trying to win the T-22. 

 

Of course I didn't win the tank in those first 2 crates. So then I justified that surely if just bought one of the 6 crates packages I would win if the tank. Even though I clearly knew the odds would still only be about 35% for a total of 8 crates. Still didn't win. So like a bad gambler I bought another because then I knew that I was get over 50% odds with another 6 crates package. Finally I won the tank, but it costs me way too much money. 

 

Anyway thanks for sharing these odds. I had just read s post on the EU former from some guy who was claims that no matter how many crates you buy your chance of winning the tank will never be more than 5%. Clearly that guy didn't take statistics in school. Yes the odds for each crate is only 5% but when u buy multiple crates your odds increase.  Just like every individual  flip of a coin has a 50% chance of head but your odds of getting at least 1 heads in 100 flips is basically 100%. 



DestructSean #22 Posted 17 August 2019 - 11:05 AM

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Did anyone else get two opportunities to buy the 2 crates for $9.99 deal? Total of 4 crates for $20. Still not biting, but curious if anyone else had this offer.

DestructSean #23 Posted 17 August 2019 - 11:30 AM

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Here’s a great article that explains OP’s rationale and math: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.engadget.com/amp/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/

 

also, look up drop chance calculators and you can find one that allows you to plugin numbers to seefor yourself. 45 crates is almost guaranteed win based on these statistics, but that approximately $375. Worth it? Not a chance!

 

I’d like to hear some feedback from good players with the Object 140 and T22. The armor appears to be better on the T22, but more workable on the Object 140. I imagine you get more lucky bounces in the T22, but can force more bounces in the Object 140. Like I said, I’d love to get some actual feedback from Russian med maestros.



boris55555 #24 Posted 17 August 2019 - 11:48 AM

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View PostDestructSean, on 17 August 2019 - 06:05 AM, said:

Did anyone else get two opportunities to buy the 2 crates for $9.99 deal? Total of 4 crates for $20. Still not biting, but curious if anyone else had this offer.


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dport02 #25 Posted 17 August 2019 - 03:39 PM

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I’m gonna buy the one time deal of 2 crates for $10. Only because I wanna get 1,000 gold or the 28,000 xp certificate.

dport02 #26 Posted 17 August 2019 - 03:41 PM

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View PostDestructSean, on 17 August 2019 - 11:30 AM, said:

Here’s a great article that explains OP’s rationale and math: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.engadget.com/amp/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/

 

also, look up drop chance calculators and you can find one that allows you to plugin numbers to seefor yourself. 45 crates is almost guaranteed win based on these statistics, but that approximately $375. Worth it? Not a chance!

 

I’d like to hear some feedback from good players with the Object 140 and T22. The armor appears to be better on the T22, but more workable on the Object 140. I imagine you get more lucky bounces in the T22, but can force more bounces in the Object 140. Like I said, I’d love to get some actual feedback from Russian med maestros.

The Object 140 is one of my favorite tanks, and it’s my most successful tier 10 stat wise, so I think the T22 is a solid medium if you like enjoy the high tier Russian mediums. 



dport02 #27 Posted 17 August 2019 - 03:42 PM

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View PostDestructSean, on 17 August 2019 - 11:30 AM, said:

Here’s a great article that explains OP’s rationale and math: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.engadget.com/amp/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/

 

also, look up drop chance calculators and you can find one that allows you to plugin numbers to seefor yourself. 45 crates is almost guaranteed win based on these statistics, but that approximately $375. Worth it? Not a chance!

 

I’d like to hear some feedback from good players with the Object 140 and T22. The armor appears to be better on the T22, but more workable on the Object 140. I imagine you get more lucky bounces in the T22, but can force more bounces in the Object 140. Like I said, I’d love to get some actual feedback from Russian med maestros.

The Object 140 is one of my favorite tanks, and it’s my most successful tier 10 stat wise, so I think the T22 is a solid medium if you like enjoy the high tier Russian mediums. 



VelociTanker #28 Posted 17 August 2019 - 07:02 PM

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View PostFu_Manchu_, on 16 August 2019 - 06:36 PM, said:

Thanks for doing the math and presenting the results in a nice, easy to use visual. I'm shocked that anyone would spend money on these crates.

 

P.S. Cue the folks who don't understand the math.

 

Can we get a line in there for Stupid Index and how it rises the more money you spend without winning?
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acrisis #29 Posted 17 August 2019 - 07:57 PM

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12 crates $100 50% chance

24 crates $200 75% chance 

 

Loot boxes can’t be outlawed soon enough. I don’t care about the technicalities that it is using an in game currency, which you can only accumulate at a substantial enough rate to participate and win if you spend $$-$$$ ... or that it is a “ sale “ because you always get an in game item ... here’s your useless booster or avatar reward valued at $0.01.


 

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Fu_Manchu_ #30 Posted 19 August 2019 - 03:53 PM

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View PostEricOtown, on 17 August 2019 - 03:25 AM, said:

 

Anyway thanks for sharing these odds. I had just read s post on the EU former from some guy who was claims that no matter how many crates you buy your chance of winning the tank will never be more than 5%. Clearly that guy didn't take statistics in school. Yes the odds for each crate is only 5% but when u buy multiple crates your odds increase.  Just like every individual  flip of a coin has a 50% chance of head but your odds of getting at least 1 heads in 100 flips is basically 100%. 

 

This argument has happened on these forums multiple times. No amount of explaining the math can help the people who can't see the difference between odds of the next crate winning and odds of at least one of a number of crates winning.

 

 

View PostVelociTanker, on 17 August 2019 - 12:02 PM, said:

 

Can we get a line in there for Stupid Index and how it rises the more money you spend without winning?
If I spend $300 on something it better have a booklet of tear-out coupons for Oral.

 

I might spend $300 just for that booklet.


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Ronin_23 #31 Posted 19 August 2019 - 03:57 PM

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View PostDestructSean, on 17 August 2019 - 11:05 AM, said:

Did anyone else get two opportunities to buy the 2 crates for $9.99 deal? Total of 4 crates for $20. Still not biting, but curious if anyone else had this offer.

 

Yep I did too. I thought it was only once. The first two crates I got were not lucky. Then I realized the offer was there again about 20 minutes later. I thought WG had made a mistake offering it twice so I snapped it up. Won the T-22 on the 3rd overall crate.



_Cletus #32 Posted 19 August 2019 - 04:37 PM

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I bought both sets, didn't win the tank but I ended up with 3500 gold as well as the ubiquitous boosters and stuff.  Although I didn't win the tank I don't feel like the money was completely wasted, I like to have a little bit of gold on hand for crew training and the like.

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Fu_Manchu_ #33 Posted 19 August 2019 - 04:40 PM

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View PostRonin_23, on 19 August 2019 - 08:57 AM, said:

 

Yep I did too. I thought it was only once. The first two crates I got were not lucky. Then I realized the offer was there again about 20 minutes later. I thought WG had made a mistake offering it twice so I snapped it up. Won the T-22 on the 3rd overall crate.

 

Mine says very clearly that the 2 crate offer is available twice. Still not buying it though. If it gave a little more gold, I might consider it.


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_Cletus #34 Posted 19 August 2019 - 06:08 PM

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View PostFu_Manchu_, on 19 August 2019 - 10:40 AM, said:

 

Mine says very clearly that the 2 crate offer is available twice. Still not buying it though. If it gave a little more gold, I might consider it.

 

I got a fair amount of gold from my 4 crates.


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AntoineDodson #35 Posted 19 August 2019 - 08:08 PM

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Well, my stupidity payed off. I bought the $50, here's what I got:

 

T-22

2.5k golf

60 some thousand of free xp

100 and some boosters

 

I'd say it was well worth the money. I'm curious how much the free xp is worth, seems like a ton.

 

 

HOWEVER, after I had such great luck I purchased $50 for my son. Struck out. No tank and even less free xp. I was really hoping to get it for him and surprise him. Rats.


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Boomer625 #36 Posted 19 August 2019 - 09:52 PM

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View PostAntoineDodson, on 19 August 2019 - 12:08 PM, said:

Well, my stupidity payed off. I bought the $50, here's what I got:

 

T-22

2.5k golf

60 some thousand of free xp

100 and some boosters

 

I'd say it was well worth the money. I'm curious how much the free xp is worth, seems like a ton.

 

 

HOWEVER, after I had such great luck I purchased $50 for my son. Struck out. No tank and even less free xp. I was really hoping to get it for him and surprise him. Rats.


At least you gave him $-50 and a lesson about the gamble.



HugGigolo #37 Posted 20 August 2019 - 02:06 AM

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View PostAntoineDodson, on 19 August 2019 - 12:08 PM, said:

Well, my stupidity payed off. I bought the $50, here's what I got:

 

T-22

2.5k golf

60 some thousand of free xp

100 and some boosters

 

I'd say it was well worth the money. I'm curious how much the free xp is worth, seems like a ton.

 

 

HOWEVER, after I had such great luck I purchased $50 for my son. Struck out. No tank and even less free xp. I was really hoping to get it for him and surprise him. Rats.

 

Oof. I wonder how many crate sales come from friends, family, maybe even couples who both want to own the same tank? Interesting thought.



Matthew_Park #38 Posted 20 August 2019 - 05:54 PM

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Got the chieftan, 121b, t95e16, and the t22 for a total of $60.

15 dollar per digital tank i can flex on other people isnt too bad i guess? c:



tdskip2 #39 Posted 20 August 2019 - 06:05 PM

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Well done, and thank you.

9_V0LT #40 Posted 20 August 2019 - 06:33 PM

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View PostAntoineDodson, on 19 August 2019 - 08:08 PM, said:

Well, my stupidity payed off. I bought the $50, here's what I got:

 

T-22

2.5k golf

60 some thousand of free xp

100 and some boosters

 

I'd say it was well worth the money. I'm curious how much the free xp is worth, seems like a ton.

 

 

HOWEVER, after I had such great luck I purchased $50 for my son. Struck out. No tank and even less free xp. I was really hoping to get it for him and surprise him. Rats.


You got 2,500 golf?

I love golf!

 

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