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Does the game match you according to your winrate, or your tank's winrate?


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__V_O_P__ #21 Posted 23 December 2019 - 01:12 PM

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View PostKabukiJack, on 23 December 2019 - 12:19 PM, said:


So what you offer is a bunch of trash talk. How about some evidence. Evidence, not Geraldo commentary.

The odds I have shown are much stronger evidence - more than enough to get a conviction in court.

So yes, absent better evidence, of which your trash talk is not, I am convinced. The matchmaker is not random.


very true. not random. tank. tank type. tier. wait time. last map played. tooning. these are things generally considered to be involved in MM. you. your stats. your clan. your historical purchases. chickens sacrificed. membership of the Illuminati. these things are not thought to be involved. 



KabukiJack #22 Posted 23 December 2019 - 01:42 PM

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@Gavidoc1

As I had explained earlier, those battles were played with "above average" players present on the server - around 3,600. The games were played on the Asia server which is now local for me, and the times are local, too. Normally, at the stated time of day the server shows about 2,800-3,000 on it but due to the holiday promotion there are more players online.

 

You can see the "players online" stats on BlitzStars.com, as I'm sure you're aware, and I'd say the players online at the time of these games was about 20% above normal.

 

So the 1st part of your proposed explanation doesn't apply the amount of players was above average. The difficulty I have in accepting the 2nd part, which I'd like to believe, is the mathematical odds as described. On just the basis of 11 battles, I calculated a 1-in-177,000 chance of those odds.

Coupled with the other day where I had 10 battles in a row against higher tier, the odds of those 2 days occurring to the same player within a 30-day span are, well... astronomical is the only word I can come up with.

 

We could ignore this, but it affects you everywhere you look when you try to answer the question "am I doing OK?" or "how can I play better?" None of the stats that compare your performance to the field of available players takes into account the "relative tier weighting". So for today, I have 11 battles, only 1 win for a 9% Win Rate (how does that happen???), my WN8 is 898 and my WN7 is an abysmal 346. [Thank you WarGaming for screwing me so bad. I'll recognize that you don't want me playing your game and I'll quit giving you money.]

 

Those stats are really rotten. Consider that just last night I had bought the E-25/Lowe combo and in my 4th game with the E-25 (against lower tier of course due to new tank) I scored 2900+ damage and got 5 kills. So I'm not a WN7 346 player. Anyway, that's the effect of the Non-Random MatchMaker feeding me all higher-tier opponents.

 

In 11 battles, 49 of the 77 tanks I faced (over half) were Higher Tier.



acrisis #23 Posted 23 December 2019 - 01:45 PM

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correlation < > causation

 

personal experience < > proof that it matchmaker is manipulated, that there are black lists and that things are AKA " rigged " against you or anybody else

 

It is not unreasonable to think, okay, I will be 33% low tier, 33% mid tier, 33% top tier when we had +2 -2 MatchMaking, or 50% low / high these days with +-1 MM. 

And chances are, in the grand scheme of things, over 10000, 100000, 1 million battles that's actually how it will work out. 

 

But, it really boils down to server population, time of day, game settings ( same control on/off, supremacy on/off ), being in platoon or not, ... 

 

I have had brand new tanks, low tier a bunch, struggling to do damage and win.

Clan mate has the same new tank, doing great damage, high win rate, ...
Is the game rigged against me?

Or was it based on time of day, me playing in the AM at low server time getting a number of battles where I was about the only -1; whereas my clan mate plays at peak server time, and may have been top tier mostly. 

 

A veteran player can try to move into a new tank line, go for a tier 3 battle, be in queue for several minutes and end up low tier most of the time against tier 4. 

Except when a new tank line comes out and you can in the first week see battles where everybody is same tier, in tier 2, tier 3, etc. 

 

If I am in a platoon with a friend, and we get a dark purple unicum platoon on red, we lose, try again, they're back on the enemy team again, we lose and the next battle they're there once again!

Is it MM " rigging " the battle against us? or simply matchmaker finding the only platoon available for that tier within a short amount of time at a low server population? 

 

 


 

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KabukiJack #24 Posted 23 December 2019 - 01:47 PM

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Update: I went back and played a 12th game. Same tank. Over 4,000 players on the server now, an increase of over 10%.

Same result - out of 7 opponents, 5 were Higher Tier. And that's 12 matches in a row.

 

So trying to stay on topic: this further shows the matchmaker is not random, and the odds as I calculate it of a player facing 12 matches in a row of higher tier players is 1 in 531,441.



_Cletus #25 Posted 23 December 2019 - 01:51 PM

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Tiers 5, 7, and 9 tend to see more low tier games.  Play 6, 8, and especially 10 and you won't see so many low tier games.

 

If it burns when I pee, does that mean I wouldn't be a good fireman?
 

KabukiJack #26 Posted 23 December 2019 - 01:53 PM

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@acrisis You're right about those various factors/variables, but almost all of those are not at play here. These matches were all played on an above-average server load as explained above. And the odds as I mentioned above, 1 in 177,000 for 11 battles in a row, and for another day of 10 battles in a row to the same player in the same month; those odds are so high I don't even want to bother working them out. I'm open to rational explanations but of those offered over the years, none seem to stand to reason and also agree with the evidence.

KabukiJack #27 Posted 23 December 2019 - 02:00 PM

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View Post_Cletus, on 23 December 2019 - 01:51 PM, said:

Tiers 5, 7, and 9 tend to see more low tier games.  Play 6, 8, and especially 10 and you won't see so many low tier games.

Thanks Cletus, I have to laugh at your suggestion. I can play -exclusively- at Tier 10 and never see a higher tier tank. But I'm not up to Tier 10 play in this game yet, so it's certainly a double-edged sword.

But your comment is much appreciated. :teethhappy:

Sorry to kindof 'jack the OP's thread here but I think we're within his topic overall.



Agent_Zigzag #28 Posted 23 December 2019 - 02:07 PM

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I am a newer player, I think I have something like 600 battles total, (haven't played in a week so not even sure how many) and I was wondering how this works and from reading the above I guess no one really knows.  I only have tanks up to tier 6 so I have only been in the lower tiers and it seems quite random to me.  Although I noticed if I play tier 3 I am often the lower tank but when I play tier 5 I am in the higher tier.  I thought this might be simply because of the numbers of people trying to play in those tiers at that time but I have no real clue.  It can't go only be number of battles because I don't have a lot.  I am guessing they don't want anyone to figure it out because if we did then that would give people an advantage.  

_Cletus #29 Posted 23 December 2019 - 02:26 PM

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View PostKabukiJack, on 23 December 2019 - 08:00 AM, said:

Thanks Cletus, I have to laugh at your suggestion. I can play -exclusively- at Tier 10 and never see a higher tier tank. But I'm not up to Tier 10 play in this game yet, so it's certainly a double-edged sword.

But your comment is much appreciated. :teethhappy:

Sorry to kindof 'jack the OP's thread here but I think we're within his topic overall.

 

The tier 10 part was a joke, but it is true that 5,7,9 see high tiers more often.  9 get sucked into 10 games, so there's not a lot of 9's left to be high tier to tier 8, so 8's will be high tier more often.  This draws a bunch of tier 7's into 8 games, so 7's are low tier more often.  Give it a shot, see for yourself.


 

If it burns when I pee, does that mean I wouldn't be a good fireman?
 

Gavidoc01 #30 Posted 23 December 2019 - 03:59 PM

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View PostKabukiJack, on 23 December 2019 - 08:47 AM, said:

Update: I went back and played a 12th game. Same tank. Over 4,000 players on the server now, an increase of over 10%.

Same result - out of 7 opponents, 5 were Higher Tier. And that's 12 matches in a row.

 

So trying to stay on topic: this further shows the matchmaker is not random, and the odds as I calculate it of a player facing 12 matches in a row of higher tier players is 1 in 531,441.

 

Problem is that you are using a data set of 12 battles as proof that MM is rigged and that there is a blacklist. 


Come back after 100 or even 500 (as I did) tracking this data and then make a determination.

 

As an example, when I tracked my battles for Tiers VIII and IX, not counting VII and X as VII I was always low tier (since I was not counting battles with tier VI and Tier X is always High Tier), these were the results:

 

Tier VIII: Total Battles: 124. High Tier: 65.32%, Low Tier: 34.68%

Tier IX: Total Battles: 117. High Tier: 49.28%, Low Tier: 50.72%

 

However, if I look at just the first 12 battles for each tier these were the results:

 

Tier VIII: High Tier: 75%, Low Tier: 25%

Tier IX: High Tier: 33%, Low Tier : 66%

 

If I take my last 12 battles for both it looked like this:

 

Tier VIII: High Tier: 75%, Low Tier: 25%

Tier IX: High Tier: 41.66%, Low Tier: 58.33%

 

Now I just chose to pick a random set right in the middle of those 500 battles.

 

Tier VIII: High Tier: 25%, Low Tier: 75%

Tier IX:  High Tier: 75%, Low Tier: 25%

 

You see, looking at just 12 battles will give you varying results. Is MM for or against me? How can I tell with just 12 battles? I can't. 

 

You need to expand your data set before making determinations.


To those who lose

Winrate is meaningless.

 

 

 


Directionally_Correct #31 Posted 23 December 2019 - 05:03 PM

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View PostKabukiJack, on 23 December 2019 - 08:47 AM, said:

Update: I went back and played a 12th game. Same tank. Over 4,000 players on the server now, an increase of over 10%.

Same result - out of 7 opponents, 5 were Higher Tier. And that's 12 matches in a row.

 

So trying to stay on topic: this further shows the matchmaker is not random, and the odds as I calculate it of a player facing 12 matches in a row of higher tier players is 1 in 531,441.

 

Out of curiosity. What tier, what tank and what account is your data for?

 


Here's to taking everything in moderation --- including moderation

 

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Bellatormonk #32 Posted 23 December 2019 - 06:28 PM

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Most of this is simply a population problem.  When/If I play on the Russian server, every tier's Q has 40-70 people in it and the matches are seemingly a "competitive" match.  Whereas the NA Q's rarely have 30 people in a few tiers (T6-8 at peak times) and are usually in the teens per Q.  This makes for crappy match making overall.

If the NA server population were to double, I would bet the majority of us Tinfoil Hatters would stop complaining.



wrecker1968 #33 Posted 23 December 2019 - 06:58 PM

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You could have all the proof in the world about MM, RNG and other factors Against WG. And you will still never win the battle on this forum. You always have the same group of the Russian sympathizers., That will knock you down no matter what.  So don't waste  your time. There are plenty of previous posts that prove they will always gang up against the naysayer.

wrecker1968 #34 Posted 23 December 2019 - 07:05 PM

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PS don't ever listen to these guys about the voodoo sacrifices. If you don't do it just the right way, it can go horribly wrong.  Horribly wrong. My stats over the last year prove it. Dam that KFC.

EL_Din_46 #35 Posted 23 December 2019 - 07:14 PM

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View PostKabukiJack, on 23 December 2019 - 02:51 AM, said:

....

 

Matchmaker is NOT RANDOM.

There is a blacklist.

 


Here are two reasons why you are not on a blacklist.

 

First, you aren’t important enough. Neither am I. You have to be doing something significant and different enough to qualify for that type of list. You and I are just playing a game. 
 

Second, the people with the list have to get some benefit from having you on the blacklist. I am mostly playing T5 and end up low tier more than I like. The consequences of that is either my quitting the game or getting better enough to compete in a higher tier. Since I’m going to get better anyway, WG gets nothing from putting me in low tier battles more than is needed for me to be on a random team.

 

So, there is no blacklist and some stuff just happens. It can be really aggravating, but the only thing you and I can do is play better in a low tier battle. Switch tiers or tanks, use cover better and so on. 


Edited by EL_Din_46, 23 December 2019 - 07:28 PM.

 

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j_rod #36 Posted 23 December 2019 - 07:42 PM

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View Postwrecker1968, on 23 December 2019 - 12:58 PM, said:

You could have all the proof in the world about MM, RNG and other factors Against WG. And you will still never win the battle on this forum. You always have the same group of the Russian sympathizers., That will knock you down no matter what.  So don't waste  your time. There are plenty of previous posts that prove they will always gang up against the naysayer.


Man, you kill me with this nonsense. You, and others, like to bring up anecdotal evidence and use it as fact and when people show where the data doesn’t match reality, you think you’re getting picked on. 
 

No, you’re not getting picked on, you’re just not able to refute what others say analytically and it frustrates you. Same goes for your stats - you’ve been forced to stop playing tiers 3 & 5 due to changes WG made to those tiers and as a result, your stats have dropped. But instead of acknowledging that your stats are dropping bc you’re being forced to play higher tiers against better players, you make every excuse under the sun to show that it’s MM, RNG, (insert lame excuse here).

 

It’s getting old brother. 


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wrecker1968 #37 Posted 23 December 2019 - 08:39 PM

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Me? I told him not to bother. I had your back.  I told him it was a waste of time. I had your back.:great:

9_V0LT #38 Posted 23 December 2019 - 09:10 PM

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View PostKabukiJack, on 23 December 2019 - 10:55 AM, said:

 MM is NOT RANDOM.

 

People who confuse Random Distribution with Equal Distribution, are the mostly likely to be killed by lightning. 


Yeah, I'm back. Let's not make a big deal about this.


50_Action_Expresso #39 Posted 24 December 2019 - 02:14 AM

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Me ranting

If Blitz had skill based MM like people think it does, then explain why I'm constantly matched both with and against players who have WRs as low as 40% to as high as 75% with anywhere from 1.5k to 50k battles. 

 

It's not skill based. If it was, you'd all know. 


Edited by RommelTanker, 24 December 2019 - 02:30 AM.

Something something insert joke here

_Cletus #40 Posted 24 December 2019 - 03:22 AM

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View PostBellatormonk, on 23 December 2019 - 12:28 PM, said:

Most of this is simply a population problem.  When/If I play on the Russian server, every tier's Q has 40-70 people in it and the matches are seemingly a "competitive" match.  Whereas the NA Q's rarely have 30 people in a few tiers (T6-8 at peak times) and are usually in the teens per Q.  This makes for crappy match making overall.

If the NA server population were to double, I would bet the majority of us Tinfoil Hatters would stop complaining.

 

I think this hits the nail on the head guys.


 

If it burns when I pee, does that mean I wouldn't be a good fireman?
 




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