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The actual problem with Blitz is not the MM

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VonTink #41 Posted 24 February 2020 - 01:17 AM

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View Post__Crusader6__, on 24 February 2020 - 12:28 AM, said:

Stupid internet ate my reply.  
 

Short answer is 12 game isn’t a valid sample size. 


You are incorrect.  But please continue to think otherwise if it is comforting to you.

 

 



j_rod #42 Posted 24 February 2020 - 01:55 AM

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View PostVonTink, on 23 February 2020 - 05:32 PM, said:


10 of the last 12 times I played my Type 59 I was bottom tiered.   Explain how that is random.  I'll wait.

 

 

 

You’re misunderstanding what random means in this case.

 

If you flip a coin, you have a 50% chance of it being heads and a 50% chance of it being tales. This is because every time you flip the coin there will always be a heads and always be a tails. 

 

Random with regards to MM doesn’t mean you have a 50% chance of being high tier or low tier. If it did, you’d be absolutely correct that the strings of being one or the other wouldn’t hold up. Rather, it simply means that when MM is assigning teams that it only considers tank class and tier, everything else being random. Since you’ll never have equal numbers of players in each tier at any given moment, you will definitely have times where you end up being high or low tier in multiple games in a row. 


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__V_O_P__ #43 Posted 24 February 2020 - 03:03 AM

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View PostVonTink, on 23 February 2020 - 11:32 PM, said:


10 of the last 12 times I played my Type 59 I was bottom tiered.   Explain how that is random.  I'll wait.

 

 


caveat: we don’t know how MM works, but we can make some deductions.


in your case let’s keep things simple and assume that in every battle there is a 50% chance that you’ll be top tier and a 50% chance you’ll be bottom tier - NB: there’s 7 tanks and being bottom tier might mean being 1:6 2:5 3:4 4:3 5:2 6:1. Similarly with being top. Are all these equally difficult? Plus there’s queue population. I’m noticing more tier 9 than usual because of the T92. So expectations may need to change. 
 

so in our simple MM world 50:50 chance. There are 4096 possible 12 battles sequences (2^12). And within all these there are 66 ways of arranging being top tier only twice (2 things c(12,2)). Plus 12 ways for being top tier only once. And only 1 way of never being top tier. That is in 4096 possible 12-battle sequences, in 79 (66+12+1) you’d be bottom tier in at least 10 of them. Which is about 2% of the time.
 

But you have nearly 4k battles in your Type 59. So in a genuinely random MM while it would be rare in a sequence of only 12 games to be bottom tier 10 times, over several thousand games it’s pretty certain to happen. (99.8% that it would happen at least once.)


Edited by __V_O_P__, 24 February 2020 - 03:05 AM.


Valkyrie04 #44 Posted 24 February 2020 - 04:25 AM

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Well, I've got to admit I absolutely didn't expect my first post would have this impact...

_Crusader6_ #45 Posted 24 February 2020 - 01:06 PM

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View PostVonTink, on 23 February 2020 - 08:17 PM, said:


You are incorrect.  But please continue to think otherwise if it is comforting to you.

 

 


I took some stats on college. Granted that was 30yrs ago but I know enough about sample sizes and confidence levels to know in a game with 7 v 7 and different battle queues that 12 games doesn’t mean anything, and means even less if you didn’t play them consecutively.  
 

 



 
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_Cletus #46 Posted 24 February 2020 - 01:43 PM

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View PostValkyrie04, on 23 February 2020 - 10:25 PM, said:

Well, I've got to admit I absolutely didn't expect my first post would have this impact...

 

Hi!  Welcome to the forums!

 

You'll find that any thread in regards to MM quickly devolves into the same arguments that have been made for years and years.  In fact, some of the latest research shows that some of the cave drawings we used to think were about hunting were in fact our ancestors puzzling over how to make fair teams.  Since every MM thread follows the same lines, there is a permanently stickied thread on MM at the top of the page, where WG shills and tinfoil hatters butt heads and talk down to each other.  That said, it's always fun to unintentionally stir up a hornets nest!


Dark_Magician_Girl, on 07 February 2020 - 08:59 PM, said:

Please show us on the doll where MM touched you

 

Avatar and graphics by crpl_hicks

 

KoV3LiK.jpg

 

wrecker1968 #47 Posted 24 February 2020 - 03:02 PM

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View PostValkyrie04, on 24 February 2020 - 04:25 AM, said:

Well, I've got to admit I absolutely didn't expect my first post would have this impact...

 My apologies. Welcome to the forum. There is a lot of great tankers here with a ton of knowledge. And They are all are very helpful. Have fun.



_Crusader6_ #48 Posted 24 February 2020 - 08:33 PM

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View Postwrecker1968, on 24 February 2020 - 10:02 AM, said:

 My apologies. Welcome to the forum. There is a lot of great tankers here with a ton of knowledge. And They are all are very helpful. Have fun.


wrecker doesn't do sarcasm very subtly...

 

 



 
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wrecker1968 #49 Posted 24 February 2020 - 09:32 PM

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Ah come on.... I'm Trying to be nice.

 

 

 I have learned a lot from the forum, Including from you to C6. (I'll never admit that again, And there might have been a Little sarcasm mixed in there):teethhappy:



_Crusader6_ #50 Posted 25 February 2020 - 01:18 AM

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Honestly I think folks get out of the forum what they want.  
   If you ask questions - you usually get decent answers. 
   But if you make claims without substance, you don’t always do well. 
 

 



 
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ODDEO_GUY #51 Posted 25 February 2020 - 04:05 PM

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View Post__Crusader6__, on 24 February 2020 - 12:28 AM, said:

Stupid internet ate my reply.  
 

Short answer is 12 game isn’t a valid sample size. 


It should be.



_Crusader6_ #52 Posted 25 February 2020 - 05:14 PM

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View PostODDEO_GUY, on 25 February 2020 - 11:05 AM, said:


It should be.


No, honestly that’s about as valid as polling two people about their favorite candidate and say you have proof who will win the next election.   
 It is a 7v7 game with different battle tiers that also fluctuates with players in queue.  
 


   



 
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ODDEO_GUY #53 Posted 25 February 2020 - 05:17 PM

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View Post__Crusader6__, on 25 February 2020 - 05:14 PM, said:


No, honestly that’s about as valid as polling two people about their favorite candidate and say you have proof who will win the next election.   
 It is a 7v7 game with different battle tiers that also fluctuates with players in queue.  
 


   


How many games does the average player do a day?

 



_Crusader6_ #54 Posted 25 February 2020 - 05:21 PM

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View PostODDEO_GUY, on 25 February 2020 - 12:17 PM, said:


How many games does the average player do a day?

 


That not related.   The validity of a sample size comes down to the various options there are.  
   



 
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ODDEO_GUY #55 Posted 25 February 2020 - 05:33 PM

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View Post__Crusader6__, on 25 February 2020 - 05:21 PM, said:


That not related.   The validity of a sample size comes down to the various options there are.  
   


Well alrighty then....

The most easily fixed, frustrating thing in this game is being bottom tiered 70% of the time, but it's not related?

Whatever.

 



_Cletus #56 Posted 25 February 2020 - 05:35 PM

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For as long as I've been playing, most experienced guys say 100 battles is what it takes to see where you're truly at with a tank, stat-wise.  I'd say that should apply to MM questions as well, take a 100 game sample and see what it tells you about MM and bad teams making a baby, and RNG and ghost shells having another baby, and those babies grow up, meet each other, have a whirlwind romance, and the baby they make will be your winrate.

Dark_Magician_Girl, on 07 February 2020 - 08:59 PM, said:

Please show us on the doll where MM touched you

 

Avatar and graphics by crpl_hicks

 

KoV3LiK.jpg

 

_Cletus #57 Posted 25 February 2020 - 05:38 PM

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View PostODDEO_GUY, on 25 February 2020 - 11:33 AM, said:


Well alrighty then....

The most easily fixed, frustrating thing in this game is being bottom tiered 70% of the time, but it's not related?

Whatever.

 

 

Odd number tiers will be low tier more often than even number tiers.  It makes sense from a maths standpoint, tier 10 is always high, so 9 tends to be low, so 8 tends to be high.....you could even start writing down a small list, note the tier you're playing and if you're high and low.  After you have an appropriate sample size, like 100 matches or so, come back and share the results, we'd all thank you for it.


Dark_Magician_Girl, on 07 February 2020 - 08:59 PM, said:

Please show us on the doll where MM touched you

 

Avatar and graphics by crpl_hicks

 

KoV3LiK.jpg

 

9_V0LT #58 Posted 25 February 2020 - 05:43 PM

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View PostVonTink, on 23 February 2020 - 11:32 PM, said:


10 of the last 12 times I played my Type 59 I was bottom tiered.   Explain how that is random.  I'll wait.

 

 


Thank you for waiting. 
 

The Type 59 is a tier eight medium. 
MM sees medium and light tanks as the same. 
Your last 12 games occurred at the same time a new, very popular, tier nine light tank was introduced. Not only will there be more people playing this very popular tier nine, but since it’s new, a majority of them will get a five to seven game “honeymoon” period, where they will be guaranteed to be top tier. 
 

Short answer, 

More people are playing a tier nine light/medium and this is displacing tier eight mediums from being top tier. 


Yeah, I'm back. Let's not make a big deal about this.


ODDEO_GUY #59 Posted 25 February 2020 - 07:22 PM

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View Post_Cletus, on 25 February 2020 - 05:38 PM, said:

 

Odd number tiers will be low tier more often than even number tiers.  It makes sense from a maths standpoint, tier 10 is always high, so 9 tends to be low, so 8 tends to be high.....you could even start writing down a small list, note the tier you're playing and if you're high and low.  After you have an appropriate sample size, like 100 matches or so, come back and share the results, we'd all thank you for it.


Oh, I've done it. The latest?

21 games, 6 top tier.

Repeat day after day, gets maddening. 

100 games is too long for a short attention span game to balance out MM.

It would be an easy fix, as has been discussed. 



_Cletus #60 Posted 25 February 2020 - 07:24 PM

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View PostODDEO_GUY, on 25 February 2020 - 01:22 PM, said:


Oh, I've done it. The latest?

21 games, 6 top tier.

Repeat day after day, gets maddening. 

100 games is too long for a short attention span game to balance out MM.

It would be an easy fix, as has been discussed. 

 

21 games at which tier?


Dark_Magician_Girl, on 07 February 2020 - 08:59 PM, said:

Please show us on the doll where MM touched you

 

Avatar and graphics by crpl_hicks

 

KoV3LiK.jpg

 





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