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wotbstars first rating system attempt plans


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SkiFletch #361 Posted 13 February 2015 - 03:50 AM

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View Post_Rocket, on 13 February 2015 - 03:14 AM, said:

Hey Face,

The top player list. Is it real time?

 

Pretty sure he said weekly


Unicorn143 #362 Posted 13 February 2015 - 03:59 AM

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View PostSkiFletch, on 13 February 2015 - 03:50 AM, said:

 

Pretty sure he said weekly

 

No. Top list players is real time but player stats are updated weekly. Not even automatically yet. You have to search for yourself again and get your stats updated. Sorry I could not yet make stats saved every time someone looks for them. It will hit server badly. So once in 7 days for each player. I am going to create a process that will update automatically stats for people who did not update them manually for 14 days. Just please understand guys I do not have a fancy hosting. It is plain vanilla hosting plan where there is a need to save server resources. So there are some constraints.

Unicorn143 #363 Posted 13 February 2015 - 04:05 AM

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View PostSpekulatius, on 13 February 2015 - 03:30 AM, said:

The 0.3 penalty coefficient for platooning is not just too high,there is no justification for it. I feel, if an adjustment is going to be made, it should be made based on data analysis from the game and it certainly shouldn't be  fixed coeffficient. In reality, the impact of platoon victories will very much depends on the player skill as well as the skill of the platoon partners. it has to be some dynamic data that can only be determined if sufficient data is available from platooned vs solo games.

 

0.3 is out of the question. It is going to be 0.15-0.17 range if we go for it.

 

Keep in mind that it is not all your rating will be affected but only a percentage of it corresponding to the platoon victories. 

 

Example: Your rating is 100 and you platoon 20% of the time. So 100*0.2(platoon rate)*0.15 penalty amount = 3 size of the penalty. Your rating will be reduced by only 3% overall. So there is no much to cry about.

or

 

win rate 56 platoon rate 0.2 penalty rate 0.15 penalty 1.68 adjusted win rate 54.32

Edited by face4stas, 13 February 2015 - 04:10 AM.


SkiFletch #364 Posted 13 February 2015 - 04:05 AM

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Totally understood man.  Guess I was part right on the updating :)


Rocket_na #365 Posted 13 February 2015 - 05:03 AM

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View Postface4stas, on 12 February 2015 - 09:59 PM, said:

 

No. Top list players is real time but player stats are updated weekly. Not even automatically yet. You have to search for yourself again and get your stats updated. Sorry I could not yet make stats saved every time someone looks for them. It will hit server badly. So once in 7 days for each player. I am going to create a process that will update automatically stats for people who did not update them manually for 14 days. Just please understand guys I do not have a fancy hosting. It is plain vanilla hosting plan where there is a need to save server resources. So there are some constraints.

I was on list earlier but now off. Also don't really understand the platoon penalty...........



Serapth #366 Posted 13 February 2015 - 06:08 AM

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View Post_Rocket, on 13 February 2015 - 05:03 AM, said:

I was on list earlier but now off. Also don't really understand the platoon penalty...........

 

there isn't one yet I beleive.

Lephturn #367 Posted 13 February 2015 - 04:55 PM

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View Postmehliveat, on 12 February 2015 - 06:32 PM, said:

A couple more graphs.  Take them as you will.

 

I have used the Top 100's data, plotted WR vs damage/battle, and WR vs kills/battle.  

 

Then I calculated an adjusted WR.  The adjustment is just based on my previous graph where a 0.1701 coefficient was calculated.  (1.7% increase in WR for every 10% increase in platoon win percentage)  Using this I plotted the same vs damage/battle and kills/battle graphs.

 

The graphs make the clusters look better - but that's totally subjective. It also seems to be that we arbitrarily decrease the WR of the vast majority of high platoon rate folks just to pull Duke Nukem back into the cluster. We seem to be changing the criteria to fit an edge case.

 

My takeway was similar to the others - it seems to me that a good rating would not weight WR heavily. I like the idea of using average XP position on your team as that would be a great indicator - but we don't have the data.


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mbrcmf #368 Posted 13 February 2015 - 06:09 PM

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Haven't read this thread in the past few days.

The last 6 pages in summary is a Math vs. English major clan war.

I will use neither - Platoons impact win rate.

Static2k #369 Posted 13 February 2015 - 06:45 PM

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View Postface4stas, on 12 February 2015 - 09:59 PM, said:

 

No. Top list players is real time but player stats are updated weekly. Not even automatically yet. You have to search for yourself again and get your stats updated. Sorry I could not yet make stats saved every time someone looks for them. It will hit server badly. So once in 7 days for each player. I am going to create a process that will update automatically stats for people who did not update them manually for 14 days. Just please understand guys I do not have a fancy hosting. It is plain vanilla hosting plan where there is a need to save server resources. So there are some constraints.

 

I see the list was updated today for many players, but I didn't make it there despite having enough battles/wr in Tier X. Is it a glitch?

 


Captain_Dread #370 Posted 13 February 2015 - 07:21 PM

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I have been using your stat page since it came out, and just want to give you an At-A-Boy!

 

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Unicorn143 #371 Posted 13 February 2015 - 07:24 PM

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View PostStatic2k, on 13 February 2015 - 06:45 PM, said:

 

I see the list was updated today for many players, but I didn't make it there despite having enough battles/wr in Tier X. Is it a glitch?

 

Your date was
2015-02-06 17:44:18

7 days still have not passed

I have updated stats for you. You are in the top now! cograts !


Edited by face4stas, 13 February 2015 - 07:24 PM.


Static2k #372 Posted 13 February 2015 - 07:34 PM

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View Postface4stas, on 13 February 2015 - 01:24 PM, said:

 

Your date was
2015-02-06 17:44:18

7 days still have not passed

I have updated stats for you. You are in the top now! cograts !

 

Thanks :harp::child:

 


SkiFletch #373 Posted 13 February 2015 - 07:50 PM

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View PostStatic2k, on 13 February 2015 - 07:34 PM, said:

 

Thanks :harp::child:

 

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johndd1_winner #374 Posted 13 February 2015 - 11:24 PM

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View Postace1234, on 12 February 2015 - 04:38 PM, said:

One thing that has completely been skipped on platoons. You are taking for granted it's always 60% players platooning and wins are a given.  I would bet the overall win % is 54%. By saying anyone with high win %s is getting that by platooning discounts the abilities of those players. 

 

Just a guess here a platoon w/ 2 60% players gives that team a 60-65% chance of winning. I don't go higher as the other team may also have a couple of ringers that would average it out over time. 

In just over 2k battles I had a ~66% solo WR.

Joined a clan and have platooned just shy of 20% of my ~5k battles since then (with some of the best players in the game) The effect on my WR? An increase of ~1.5%

 

Does platooning effect your WR? Absolutely. But unless you're ALWAYS platooning, it has insignificant impact on your overall WR.

 

As as ive stated before, Really good players platooned will win a hell of a lot of games. Really average players platooned will win a few more games. Above average players will win above average more games etc etc.  


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Spekulatius #375 Posted 14 February 2015 - 02:25 PM

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Interesting discussion.Based on my personal experience, platooning impacts the WR quite a bit. It will impact damage nd damage ratio as well, but probably not as much.  It is also true what Asiaticus Sid before that correlation does not imply causation. What this means is that a factor like platooning may correlate with WR very well but the cause is not the plAtooning itself, it is that better player tend to platoon more. Just An example, asI think for the plAtooning WR discussion, both player skill and the platoon factor plays a role.

 

Personally, from a data integrity point of view,  I would not include any data in the WN-X ratio (or whatever it is going to be called) that cannot be calculated from the data in the API. This means that since we don't know the WR in solos vs platooned games from the API, I would not try to correct for it. IF this data becomes available in the API, I would take it into consideration. Even if there were a huge community effort to collect this data manually, I would not include it, because you never know if this data has a bias, of the factor may change over time, due to changes in the game, which would make this fudge factors obsolete. That is why it's better to omit data,  when there is no way to continuosly update it via API. There is a lot of other factors that playa a  role and that are not available in the API like use of Gold Ammo, free XP tanks to elite status to avoid difficult stock grinds that will affect WR and damage as well, so I don't think it is fair to concentrate too much on platooning anyways.

 

I am surprised that nobody suggest to make adjustment based in the average Tank WR and  damage. This data is available from the API and it's obvious that some tanks are OP (IS-6, KV-3), so if we truly want to measure player skill, we should normalize the data to the statistical median for each tank and calculate adjusted WR and damage ratios for each tank, which when added together, give a truer picture of the player skill, since you take the hardware factor out of the equation.

 

No system will be perfect and cannot be, because the data we have available is incomplete, but I think it is better to limit the analysis to the data collected through the API system, rather than trying to fudge it with questionable data from outside the API.

 

Sorry of the long post, I do have a science background and some experience in statistics and that is how I would approach it, if it were a  problem in my workplace.

 

 

 

 

 


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Asiaticus #376 Posted 14 February 2015 - 03:38 PM

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View PostSpekulatius, on 14 February 2015 - 09:25 AM, said:

I am surprised that nobody suggest to make adjustment based in the average Tank WR and  damage. This data is available from the API and it's obvious that some tanks are OP (IS-6, KV-3), so if we truly want to measure player skill, we should normalize the data to the statistical median for each tank and calculate adjusted WR and damage ratios for each tank, which when added together, give a truer picture of the player skill, since you take the hardware factor out of the equation.

 

That would be a lot more sensible than a fudge factor penalty for platooning.



Unicorn143 #377 Posted 14 February 2015 - 05:45 PM

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View PostAsiaticus, on 14 February 2015 - 03:38 PM, said:

 

That would be a lot more sensible than a fudge factor penalty for platooning.

 

That would be done for sure but it does not eliminate the need for a platoon adjustment. By the way you can already see herehow you score against the median values aggregated from other players

 

http://wotbstars.com...siaticus&geo=NA

 



_DEZ_ #378 Posted 16 February 2015 - 05:04 AM

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Since wn8 formula was based on pc and would be difficult to implement on blitz, why not use efficiency?
http://wot-news.com/stat/calc/en/ru

Efficiency is not the best measurement of skill but it would seem its the only tool that can easily be implemented on BLITZ. 


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acrisis #379 Posted 23 February 2015 - 05:55 PM

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The player tally was just pushed up from ~9800 to 10000 :harp: ... and counting. Still have a batch of summaries on the iPad I want to clear off. 

 


 

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voyager35 #380 Posted 23 February 2015 - 06:03 PM

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View Post_DEZ_, on 15 February 2015 - 11:04 PM, said:

Since wn8 formula was based on pc and would be difficult to implement on blitz, why not use efficiency?
http://wot-news.com/stat/calc/en/ru

Efficiency is not the best measurement of skill but it would seem its the only tool that can easily be implemented on BLITZ. 

 

The ER calculation requires CAP (average capture points per game) and DEF (average base defense points per game). I guess it is available on the API but Face didn't include that in his webpage.

 

 






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