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CptCheez #81 Posted 20 March 2015 - 03:37 AM

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View Postdorian666gray, on 19 March 2015 - 07:08 PM, said:

Good post, Cheez. I didn't say anything about WR though, just MM. I don't think MM takes into account WR. I think WR is an overall poor metric of a player's performance.

 

Correct, it does not, and that's not what I was saying.  Nothing about WR at all.  Just that a truly random matchmaker will tend to create vastly uneven teams (in terms of player's skill) more often than even teams.

 

View Postbigpoppadaddy, on 19 March 2015 - 08:49 PM, said:

I get the Mismatches sometimes but I thought to computer was supposed to be angle t determine users skill rate?? 

 

Nope, it does not take that into account at all.


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dorian666gray #82 Posted 20 March 2015 - 03:42 AM

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The steamrolling continues. Most of my matches tonight have been 7-1, 7-0 both winning and on the losing side which has been most of them ha. Also, perhaps unrelated Im the bottom tank almost every game. I usually take this in stride but it's sooooo frequent that one time I just turned the device off after it showed the lineup. I don't know the results and i don't care. When I can pen one out seven enemy tanks, there's no reason to have me in that game. That is nonsense.

NevirSayDie #83 Posted 20 March 2015 - 03:43 AM

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View PostCptCheez, on 19 March 2015 - 06:26 PM, said:

Unfortunately, that's rarely the result of a truly random matchmaker.  Truly random matches, which these are, are much more likely to result in a vast mismatch in skill between teams than they are to result in evenly matched teams.

 

Let's say any 1 person's skill in the game is represented by a value from 1-10.  Now roll 7 * 10-sided dice.  That's the "skill level" for that team.  Roll them again, and that's the "skill level" for the other team.  You're going to see many more rolls with a very wide variance than you will rolls that are close in value.  Here's some results from a random dice rolling app:

 

7d10 → [8,10,8,9,5,2,10] = (52)
7d10 → [4,3,10,5,8,1,1] = (32)

 

7d10 → [3,1,10,1,3,5,4] = (27)
7d10 → [1,4,8,2,9,8,10] = (42)

 

7d10 → [9,10,2,1,6,6,10] = (44)
7d10 → [10,4,4,6,3,8,10] = (45)

 

7d10 → [3,10,10,5,10,2,8] = (48)
7d10 → [6,4,3,5,7,7,7] = (39)

 

7d10 → [3,8,7,10,10,10,1] = (49)
7d10 → [1,6,5,5,1,6,10] = (34)

 

7d10 → [1,4,6,2,5,4,7] = (29)
7d10 → [7,10,1,9,7,5,2] = (41)

 

7d10 → [6,7,6,5,3,1,5] = (33)
7d10 → [2,10,4,9,6,3,3] = (37)

 

7d10 → [1,4,5,7,2,9,10] = (38)
7d10 → [5,6,3,2,9,10,6] = (41)

 

7d10 → [10,4,1,1,2,9,4] = (31)
7d10 → [8,8,8,4,9,1,9] = (47)

 

7d10 → [2,8,6,3,8,7,4] = (38)
7d10 → [7,4,2,4,5,3,4] = (29)

 

Assuming that a "close game" would only be the result of the team values being within, say, 5 of each other, then only 3 of the above 10 examples would be a close game.  The other 7 would be steamrolls one way or the other.

 

This perfectly sums up WG's #1 problem. Glancing through this list, you can see many "9" and "10" skill players who are on the wrong side of a blowout. 

 

I would also add that 30% has proven to be about the number of matches that are close enough for one player to sway. The worst solo player is about 35%, the best solo player about 65%. That means that 35% of the time, your team is so good that you'll win even if you go AFK, and 35% of the time, your team is so bad that even the single greatest player in the game couldn't change its outcome. 

 

(As an aside, this shows why platooning is the most important factor determining WR. Two 9's have a vastly greater chance of success than a solo 10. Of course, two 10s will do even better, but only by a couple percentage points.)



dorian666gray #84 Posted 20 March 2015 - 03:48 AM

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@ Cheez: so how are you determining the player's specific skill level? I got the impression you were implying WR somehow factors into that. What you're saying is not makin sense to me. I think it's more feasible that individual tanks are clearly superior than others and the MM is not factoring that in. A team of three T-54s versus a team of Jagdtigers is not fair.

dorian666gray #85 Posted 20 March 2015 - 03:57 AM

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Just read Nevir's post: again, you guys are using WR as some kind of metric to determine "skill level" whatever that means. This isn't a skill game. We're not talking sports here, this is a game where you use, at maximum, your two thumbs. Your success (as determined by winning) relies on a tremendous number of variables, many of which are completely out of your control. You can't even control if your shot is going to count or not when you're aiming right at gray with a 4500 credit APCR shell.

NevirSayDie #86 Posted 20 March 2015 - 04:43 AM

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View Postdorian666gray, on 20 March 2015 - 03:57 AM, said:

Just read Nevir's post: again, you guys are using WR as some kind of metric to determine "skill level" whatever that means. This isn't a skill game. We're not talking sports here, this is a game where you use, at maximum, your two thumbs. Your success (as determined by winning) relies on a tremendous number of variables, many of which are completely out of your control. You can't even control if your shot is going to count or not when you're aiming right at gray with a 4500 credit APCR shell.

 

Oh, of course. But that's not the point. Different skill levels do exist, even though they're not reflected 100% accurately in win percentages. 

 

Cheese was just assigning a number to different possible skill levels. If your teammates are "1's" and "2's" and "3's," you will lose. If your teammates are "8's," "9's," and "10's," you will win. Since the matchmaker doesn't take skill into account, it's far more likely that one team will be clearly superior to the other. That's reflected in the game as well. If you were to keep track of your battle results for 50 games or so, you'd find that almost all of them were blowouts--one team crushed the other while losing only a couple tanks.

 

This is because of the problem that Cheese described--it is far more probable that two sets of 7 dice would not end up rolling a similar number each time. The dice represent players, and higher numbers represent higher skill. Because the overall skill of each team is usually very far apart, one team usually crushes the other team. 



mehliveat #87 Posted 20 March 2015 - 04:54 AM

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I just went 8-2 run in the Fury, even finally got a M during the run.

 

But even though I was winning, the game didn't seem "fun".  The enemy teams were just woeful.  (My team weren't any better, but theirs was worse)

 

Even with the M game (finally got a M after 289 games), I didn't feel much excitement.  The game was on Middle, the enemy charged base en mass.  I sat on the hill and went click, click, click, click, and that was that.



acrisis #88 Posted 20 March 2015 - 10:52 AM

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View Postdorian666gray, on 19 March 2015 - 10:48 PM, said:

@ Cheez: so how are you determining the player's specific skill level? I got the impression you were implying WR somehow factors into that. What you're saying is not makin sense to me. I think it's more feasible that individual tanks are clearly superior than others and the MM is not factoring that in. A team of three T-54s versus a team of Jagdtigers is not fair.

 

I agree that too often you look at the line-up and go ... our tanks are no match for that. But, you never know. Sometimes you pull out a win.  

The reason some of us look at both tank tiers, tank types and also player skill is that a driver can make or break a tank. And the primary thing for player skill level we all recognize is if somebody wins a lot with their random team, which is a rough indicator for players skill overall, through good and bad teams. PR may be better as it also factors number of battles, dmg done, etc. but just the number of battles and tiers played in inflates things, you can have new really good new players, ... Either way, you can never be exact, because some do better in some tanks than others etc. so it is just easy to grab WR, as folks with 40 - 50 - 60 % WR play and perform quite different.  For instance each team can have a single top tier VII, but one's driver only has a 40% WR vs the other one's 60%. One is more likely to dish out a lot more damage than the other.  The other day we were facing half the red team including one of my dreaded enemies the AT15 and I figured this is going to take forever, only way to flank him is to go around half way the map ... well he wasn't firing much, wasn't keeping an aggressive stance ... red hesitated. We jumped, tracked and flanked him. Took care of the AT in no time flat. Driver? About 50 battles across maybe a dozen tier ones and 40 in his AT. 

So the steamrolling is part of the game. The other day I had a stretch of games that was a dozen in sequence of exactly win one, lose one. The wins were tough to get, the losses were lots rolling (4:) and steamrolling (6:0 7:0). And we all know how half a dozen of those feel in a row. 

 

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gl123 #89 Posted 20 March 2015 - 12:24 PM

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View PostTheGypsyDog, on 15 March 2015 - 04:01 AM, said:

Wargaming have done something to Blitz (I dont know what) that has taken all the enjoyment out of it. Today I have done 53 games, 5 draws, 38 losses and you do the math for the last one. The amount of bad players, lag and focus fire is annoying the absolute **** out of me. But I think I know the problem but If I say it I will be starting a new thread which will get me pounded by my clan peers. Anyway Im leaving for a while because well...  Screw this, why play a game that you don't enjoy?

 

I hear you, same happened to me for few nights in a row and then I decided to go down to tier 1 & 2 - just to relax.  Tooned with buddy of mine and we wend 45-1-4 !!! - for those few hours (we said we will stop once we get defeated) I felt like dddqqq and fullest.  The game was still full of potatoes but we did not need anyone but us. I would say that for at least 50-60% of battles we shared 7 kills. Btw,  almost 90% of games were perfectly balanced. In tier 1 almost every game was sole tier 1 tanks. For tier 2 MM, we found occasional tier 3 tanks and very few tanks from tier 1

Edited by gl123, 20 March 2015 - 12:30 PM.


SaltyMcSalt #90 Posted 20 March 2015 - 12:37 PM

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I've stopped playing BLITZ almost completely and have installed the PC version instead. Every time I pick up the game I end up getting irritated by the idiocy out there - fail platoons, AFK in mid game when players decide they want to bail, base capping in tier ten... there are better ways for me to spend my time. 

 

Of course, the truth is probably that 90% of the players look at WOT as a simple drive and shoot game, completely missing the strategy aspect that make the game so interesting. 


Edited by mastrap, 20 March 2015 - 12:38 PM.


dorian666gray #91 Posted 20 March 2015 - 12:38 PM

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Good thoughts, guys. I enjoyed reading. 

Three60Mafia #92 Posted 20 March 2015 - 12:46 PM

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View Postdorian666gray, on 19 March 2015 - 10:57 PM, said:

Just read Nevir's post: again, you guys are using WR as some kind of metric to determine "skill level" whatever that means. This isn't a skill game. We're not talking sports here, this is a game where you use, at maximum, your two thumbs. Your success (as determined by winning) relies on a tremendous number of variables, many of which are completely out of your control. You can't even control if your shot is going to count or not when you're aiming right at gray with a 4500 credit APCR shell.

 

That is absolutely not true, and if you believe that, you might as well give up on the game right now. There's skill in decision making, knowing when to fire and where, knowing maps, angling your hull, playing your tank... and tons more. 

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stickman147147 #93 Posted 20 March 2015 - 12:48 PM

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All the comments here are mainly centered around one thing. Potato players.

 

You can't stop the potato players, sure once clans comes out and tank companies everyone will be happy and set. Until then, you just have to deal with potatoes in your games.


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CptCheez #94 Posted 20 March 2015 - 03:17 PM

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View Postdorian666gray, on 19 March 2015 - 10:57 PM, said:

Just read Nevir's post: again, you guys are using WR as some kind of metric to determine "skill level" whatever that means. This isn't a skill game. We're not talking sports here, this is a game where you use, at maximum, your two thumbs. Your success (as determined by winning) relies on a tremendous number of variables, many of which are completely out of your control. You can't even control if your shot is going to count or not when you're aiming right at gray with a 4500 credit APCR shell.

 

I'm not determining skill.  I'm just using a completely arbitrary (read: "made up" ) scale of 1-10 to represent a player's skill level.  This has nothing to do with WR or any other in-game stat.  It's a completely made up number that represents the skill level of the person driving that tank.

 

And seriously?  "This isn't a skill game"?  Are you playing the same game I am???  Are you trying to tell me that two people driving the same tank should be completely equal once the game starts?  One of them drives straight into the red spawn and parks, spinning his turret wildly and shooting the rocks.  The other knows how to side-scrape, angle, hull-down, etc.  Which one is going to live longer and do more damage, driving exactly the same tanks?

 

This is absolutely a skill game.  Sure, the tank's abilities come into play, but only to a certain point.  Skill matters a LOT.  There's a certain bit of randomness to the game (penetration rolls, damage rolls, etc.) but c'mon...skill doesn't matter?  Please.


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acrisis #95 Posted 20 March 2015 - 03:21 PM

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Yep ... and put the iPad (or other device down) after a series of losses and try to breathe deeply. Played a few rounds this morning. 3 W : 7 L. No wins possible in two tanks three battles in a row. You can blame yourself for a few small errors and/or something you could've done better, but you can't perform miracles where you'll win solo in a VI with half hp left against several VII reds left standing. You have to take whatever comfort you can get out of the fact you were top one or two doing damage.  

 

The love / hate relationship with the game is getting a bit old though, when you can't make the progress you want to, due to poor team support. I love various aspects of the game and getting more/better/higher tier tanks. Don't like some of the technical issues and potatoes. Hate the steam rolling and losing streaks. 


 

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Ookla_the_Mok #96 Posted 20 March 2015 - 06:31 PM

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Gameplay has been different recently, I have no doubt. I am in so many lopsided battles. Games of 7-0/1/2 are nearly the norm. Even the close games are often poorly contested with tanks out in the open shooting each other until one breaks. Mediums standing in front of heavies, heavies sniping, that kind of thing. I don't mind losing that much but I like good games when at least 10 of the 14 tanks are trying to win and at least a few are working together.

 

So even if WR evens out, I don't feel like my play is having as much influence on the outcome  -  that is the source of frustration. I'm a semi-serious player and will not pretend to carry battles or always execute techniques well but I do play relatively smart and try to play the role that best secures a win. But lately, that has far less impact than the simple attrition of the matches.

 

Again, I think much of this can be attributed to the awful support and training for someone jumping into the game. There is no reason Wargaming doesnt have more tutorials and notes about some of the game basics. There are players that would adopt some of this knowledge even if they are really only playing for fun and don't want to watch youtube videos, etc (I dont go that far myself).


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Spekulatius #97 Posted 21 March 2015 - 12:17 AM

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View Postdorian666gray, on 18 March 2015 - 11:21 PM, said:

I read that a lot here on the forum - when losing put the device down and stop playing. I'm not picking on anyone in particular but frankly that doesn't make any sense. The game's totally random. 

How do you know it's totally random? I thought so as well, but I think my general feel is that there is a streakiness in the game that created a short term correlation, where a win makes a win in the following game more likely and vice versa. Maybe this is intentionally designed that way by the WOT owners or it is caused by imperfections in the player composition (which may persist for a while) that causes a favorable or unfavorable bias in MM.

 


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dorian666gray #98 Posted 21 March 2015 - 01:22 AM

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View PostSpekulatius, on 21 March 2015 - 12:17 AM, said:

How do you know it's totally random? I thought so as well, but I think my general feel is that there is a streakiness in the game that created a short term correlation, where a win makes a win in the following game more likely and vice versa. Maybe this is intentionally designed that way by the WOT owners or it is caused by imperfections in the player composition (which may persist for a while) that causes a favorable or unfavorable bias in MM.

 

 

I don't know if it's random or not. It's just my assumption. I think in that particular post I meant that you can't account for all the variables. In that sense, the whole thing is just "random". You don't know if half your team is going to go afk or if they're all going to find hull-down positions and win with zero damage received. 




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