TL;DR - matchmaking hates you, just take solace in the fact that it hates everyone equally and as capriciously as it does you. You are the single biggest contributor to your own success or failure in this game.
At the risk of adding yet more hot air to the seemingly endless round of conversations about matchmaking and fluctuations in win rate I thought I would offer my own personal observations on win rate trends and matchmaking based on a long-term view of my stats.
Like virtually everyone else on this forum, I have experienced the euphoria of amazing winning streaks alternated with what seem like endless strings of low tier potato-laden games that induce great bouts of weeping and gnashing of teeth.
I am the same player playing the same tanks in the same way. Why can’t I stay on top? Surely something external is causing these swings.
Is it just random variation? Sunspots? The NSA? Stalin’s vengeful ghost? Fracking? Moon phases? Quality control problems at the fennel powder factory? Wargaming’s nefarious matchmaking algorithm?
I too, in the depths of my despair, have at times (secretly) donned a tin foil cap and cursed matchmaking for clearly seeking to maliciously ruin my dream of a higher win rate. But idle speculation and baseless ranting gets me no closer to my goal, nor does it help shore up my addled brain’s already tenuous grip on lucidity.
Before I start there are two things worth noting - the first is Wargaming’s official post on how matchmaking works. The second is my own previous analysis of matchmaking, win rate, and team composition. Both of these imply that the matchmaking process is random with respect to all factors except tier and tank type.
So, doing what I know best, I decided to empirically consider this variability over a long time span. The following is a graph resulting from this data collection that shows both my overall and 7-day win rate recorded at weekly intervals since January:
There are two primary takeaways from this:
- My 7-day Win Rate yo-yo’s around so much it hurts my neck to look at it. What goes up always goes back down and vice versa (tin foil hat donned)
- The overall (linear) 30-week trend line for my 7-day WR is a flat 66% (wait, what?)
The swings in 7-Day WR were not a surprise when I first saw them. In fact, as the unofficial stat keeper for the Triarii I can tell you that virtually everyone experiences these to some extent. The big surprise to me was the flat trendline: since January my avg WR is 65.7% The first 15 weeks? 65.8%. The most recent 15 weeks? 65.9%. I have clearly found my ceiling for win rate - and unless I can find some way of improving my play (like dying less often and doing more damage) this is where I will (happily) remain.
In a nutshell: I AM the same player, playing the same tanks, in the same way - WHEN VIEWED OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME FRAME. Matchmaking is random, but that randomness only appears when viewed from the right perspective.
There are clearly forces at work larger than myself that I cannot control. As a tanker who is much wiser than me has pointed out - finding the nirvana in win rate and match making is about acceptance.
Whatever these particular forces are that cause my weekly win rate to vary so much, I have learned to take solace in the acceptance of this variability. Although I still do what I can to mitigate the impact of the lows, and to hold on to the highs as long as possible, they are simply a part of my WoTBlitz experience. I no longer expect to win 65% of my battles every tanking session, or even every week.
Looking at this data and attempting to understand my own progression as a player has led me to some general observations that you may find helpful (many of which have already been previously stated at some point on the forums).
- Your win rate will fluctuate in the short term - it is inevitable. Sometimes matchmaking will love you, other times, not so much. The sooner you accept this fact, the better your mental state.
- Focus on the long term - don’t stress about day-to-day fluctuations and set long term goals. I find my sanity is improved by focusing on the week. If I drop WR points in the middle of the week, I know that I have time to make it up later on. And, I know that it always will improve given enough time. Some weeks when I reach a particular target WR I put down my iPad and stop playing until Monday.
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Try to find effective strategies to flatten out the valleys (many of which have been discussed multiple times on the forums already).
- For God’s sake, take the advice of countless others - if you experience a string of defeats (2,3,4.. or whatever) STOP PLAYING AND TAKE A BREAK!!
- Platooning - this can work, but is not a panacea. I have had times where platooning has worked great to get me back on the winning track. In others, I have seemingly infected my platoon mate with my raging case of potato blight.
- Mix up your play. Struggling in your heavy? Switch to a medium or TD. Play a favorite tank for a while. I typically pick up one of my top WR tanks (Matilda toon anyone?).
- Trust me, if I can improve so can you. But, if your win rate is not where you would like it, you need to look squarely in the mirror. If you can’t be reflective about your own play and constantly seek to find excuses and reasons outside of yourself, you will never improve.
- Alternately - ignore your stats altogether and just have fun (it is just a game after all).
So, does MM hate you? Of course it does - but it hates everyone equally, just like a parent. Which of my kids do I like best today? Depends on who has pissed me off the least. Rest assured however, that whichever of my progeny is on my good side today he or she will do something to annoy the heck out of me tomorrow and will move to the top of my grudge list. However, over the long term, odds are I will end up loving/hating them equally over the course of my life. And, I have no doubt that they will put me in a second-rate retirement home the first chance they get. Such is life.
Edited by vanpeenen, 30 September 2015 - 07:56 PM.