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Thoughts on Matchmaking and Win Rate

Win Rate Matchmaking random universe

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Mere_Anarchy #21 Posted 27 July 2015 - 10:06 PM

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View Postmershongraphix, on 27 July 2015 - 01:40 PM, said:

Great post.

But I swear I have upset a dev and they clicked the "match with top potatos" box somewhere on their end lol.

 

Thanks!  I know what you mean.  Even knowing it is random I am astounded sometimes how often I seem to get lumped in battles w people who really don't know how to play.  

 

View PostViper8757NC, on 27 July 2015 - 01:42 PM, said:

Fantastic post, VP.  Well-researched, supported and presented conclusions--conclusions with which I agree wholeheartedly.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll still rant in-game about unbalanced MM, but I understand that over the long term it "all comes out in the wash."

Again, great work.

 

Thanks Viper - much appreciated.  I hear you about MM - we've certainly gotten what seems like more than our fair share of bad MM lineups when tooned.  Knowing it's random still doesn't stop me from complaining about it, though (and never will).  It's kind of like the weather - complaining doesn't change it, but at some level still makes me feel better.

 

View PostAsiaticus, on 27 July 2015 - 01:58 PM, said:

Another wise and well reasoned post, Vanpeenen. As someone who recently had three bad weeks followed by an excellent week, I'd say that all of your perspective and advice fits my own experience. It is so very easy to develop superstitious beliefs about MM because the human mind is hardwired to find patterns no matter what. There is even a technical name for this: apophenia—the human tendency to find patterns in random or meaningless information.

 

I see a lot of apophenia in reading posts on this forum.

 

Thanks for the kind words Asiaticus!  I knew I had seen someone use a technical term for that phenomenon somewhere in one of the many of MM rants that have appeared.  Now I realize it was you - thanks for posting that.  I'll have to file that one away in my brain.

 

View PostExcaliburSaber, on 27 July 2015 - 02:16 PM, said:

Van, the moment you've told me you want to take me up, you've already taken steps to become a better player. What's important that noobs (not you, of course) learn their noobs and seek help. Il be on.

 

Sounds good - thanks!

 

View PostCptCheez, on 27 July 2015 - 02:20 PM, said:

I've been doing similar tracking of my own 7-Day vs. Overall WR, and posted something on the Triarii forums about it a few weeks ago.  What I was looking for was the commonly-thrown-around "Platooning = stat padding higher WR!" correlation.  Here's mine, with a Platoon Victory % green line thrown in (and Survival % because I was curious about that too):

 

I remember reading this on the Triarii site - very cool.  I actually had hoped to see my recent WR increasing like yours, but clearly I'm stuck in a rut.  Granted, I'm not all that unhappy with where I am.  But, it's cool to see how your WR is still on the rise.  Thanks for posting this - makes for a great addition.

 

View PostBR1XT0N, on 27 July 2015 - 02:25 PM, said:

Great post, van.

 

Thank you BR1XT0N, much appreciated.  BTW - I love your thread on real tank explosions.  I always stop by to check it out and see what's new.

 

View Posttinmanic, on 27 July 2015 - 03:16 PM, said:

+1 great insight!   There's a nuance in one of your statements that resonated with me:  that we potentially have a "WR ceiling" unique to our playing style. So that suggests we can raise our ceiling if we change things that we can control (for the better) - like dying less often and doing more damage, increasing hit rate, etc., as long as MM doesn't change. I don't have enough battles or tanks to know what my ceiling will be, but I've discovered that habits (aka styles) are very hard to identify and break. Thanks for this

 

Thanks.  Glad you found even a small morsel of useful info in it.  I have the same thoughts on the ceiling.  I have clearly found mine, for the time being.  I definitely know what prevents my WR from being higher - I simply don't survive long enough in many battles.  I need to adjust my play style, but as you note, its one thing to identify the problem, quite another to do something about it...

 

And - thanks for your  contributions to the Ace Mastery thread as well!


 

 


koop123 #22 Posted 27 July 2015 - 10:31 PM

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Van, thank you! I fight that inner skinner pigeon and try not to let the tin foil hat fall on my head again. Your post should be pinned...for every future player to read when many of us may have moved on from Blitz. I am one of those people that read that infamous MM is rigged (when a player found a supposed patent submitted by WG) from the WOT PC world and allowed some of its subjective speculation seep into my brain. This should be our eye bleach and read anytime anyone of us starts thinking MM or RNG is out to get us.


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CC_Sly #23 Posted 27 July 2015 - 10:51 PM

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Wow.

 

This is a fantastic post.

 

Really all I can say to this is:

 

 

Well done sir. Well done.


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sheriffsherman #24 Posted 27 July 2015 - 10:54 PM

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Awesome post!  2nd rate retirement home, OMG!:D  1st rate is the one with the old school arcade and every single gaming system built up until then:D

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Ksftwe #25 Posted 27 July 2015 - 11:17 PM

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The fundamental rule of statistics is the definition of "probability": the LONG TERM relative frequency of a result. People seem to think that once they get 3 bad teams in a row something must be wrong because it's not "random" anymore. Flip a coin a million times, I guarantee you will get 5 heads in a row somewhere in there. (As a former Statistics student, I thoroughly enjoyed your little analysis on MM as a direct factor in long-term performance. Well spoken.)


 

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_clyde #26 Posted 27 July 2015 - 11:24 PM

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All we need now is a curve fit with a 7th order (I think that is the highest excel will do) polynomial.  Then you can predict the future!  

veetoh #27 Posted 27 July 2015 - 11:44 PM

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All these facts make my head dizzy :amazed: But wow, such an informational post. Time to pray to RNGesus! (+1 bw)

 


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_G_E_M_ #28 Posted 27 July 2015 - 11:59 PM

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....................... i dont even know what to say........ i actually wish you are my teacher because i will actually learn so much stuff that im going to be so smart. This post was so amazing like the time spent and dedication..... thats just insane my posts are just mainly copy and paste...... +1 wish there was like +50

 


Zip___LuLu #29 Posted 28 July 2015 - 12:07 AM

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Very insightful post that hopefully gets pinned like your Ace Mastery one!


Edited by Zip___LuLu, 28 July 2015 - 12:08 AM.


SteelCityHammer #30 Posted 28 July 2015 - 12:51 AM

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Sir: very well explained.  Holds up under scrutiny.  And I applied your theory to my limited "stat tracking"... It correlates well. Thank you for posting this. 

 

Regards, SCH



Mere_Anarchy #31 Posted 28 July 2015 - 01:05 AM

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View Post_Irregular_Apocalypse_, on 27 July 2015 - 04:31 PM, said:

Van, thank you! I fight that inner skinner pigeon and try not to let the tin foil hat fall on my head again. Your post should be pinned...for every future player to read when many of us may have moved on from Blitz. I am one of those people that read that infamous MM is rigged (when a player found a supposed patent submitted by WG) from the WOT PC world and allowed some of its subjective speculation seep into my brain. This should be our eye bleach and read anytime anyone of us starts thinking MM or RNG is out to get us.

 

Lol - sometimes those tin foil hats just feel so good though!  Many thanks for the kind words - much appreciated!  

 

View PostCC_Sly, on 27 July 2015 - 04:51 PM, said:

Wow.

This is a fantastic post.

Really all I can say to this is:

Well done sir. Well done.

 

Thanks CC - you flatter me.

 

View Postsheriffsherman, on 27 July 2015 - 04:54 PM, said:

Awesome post!  2nd rate retirement home, OMG!:D  1st rate is the one with the old school arcade and every single gaming system built up until then:D

 

Thanks sheriff!  The rate I'm going I'll be lucky if my retirement home even has electricity and indoor plumbing.  It might just be a van down by the river.  

 

View PostKsftwe, on 27 July 2015 - 05:17 PM, said:

The fundamental rule of statistics is the definition of "probability": the LONG TERM relative frequency of a result. People seem to think that once they get 3 bad teams in a row something must be wrong because it's not "random" anymore. Flip a coin a million times, I guarantee you will get 5 heads in a row somewhere in there. (As a former Statistics student, I thoroughly enjoyed your little analysis on MM as a direct factor in long-term performance. Well spoken.)

 

Thanks much.  I try to tell all my students that stats have relevance far beyond just the academic setting.  They just give me blank looks.  Perhaps I should assign them to play Blitz and figure out the probability of win/loss rates!

 

View PostClydeman72, on 27 July 2015 - 05:24 PM, said:

All we need now is a curve fit with a 7th order (I think that is the highest excel will do) polynomial.  Then you can predict the future!  

 

Oooh, I like the way you think!  Thanks!

 

View Postveetoh_wong, on 27 July 2015 - 05:44 PM, said:

All these facts make my head dizzy :amazed: But wow, such an informational post. Time to pray to RNGesus! (+1 bw)

 

 

Lol - just go blow some tanks up and it'll feel better quickly.  Thanks for the +1 and the compliment.

 

View Postpurplemonkeys11, on 27 July 2015 - 05:59 PM, said:

....................... i dont even know what to say........ i actually wish you are my teacher because i will actually learn so much stuff that im going to be so smart. This post was so amazing like the time spent and dedication..... thats just insane my posts are just mainly copy and paste...... +1 wish there was like +50

 

Thanks - I appreciate it.  Be careful what you ask for - I am willing to bet that most of my students would tell you otherwise.  

 

View PostZip___LuLu, on 27 July 2015 - 06:07 PM, said:

Very insightful post that hopefully gets pinned like your Ace Mastery one!

 

Thanks!  Don't know about the pin thing, but glad people find it useful.  I don't have a lot to offer in terms of playing advice, tank guides, etc., so I try to find ways to contribute that allow me to draw on what I do know how to do.  And, thanks again for posting all your Aces!

 

View PostSteelCityHammer, on 27 July 2015 - 06:51 PM, said:

Sir: very well explained.  Holds up under scrutiny.  And I applied your theory to my limited "stat tracking"... It correlates well. Thank you for posting this. 

 

Regards, SCH

 

You are very welcome - glad it was useful and that your own stats show the same.  Happy tanking!


 

 


Mistake_ #32 Posted 28 July 2015 - 01:59 AM

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View Postkrownski, on 27 July 2015 - 01:44 PM, said:

best post I've ever read

 


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Xavier5A #33 Posted 28 July 2015 - 02:24 AM

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View Postvanpeenen, on 27 July 2015 - 01:17 PM, said:

Mix up your play. Struggling in your heavy?  Switch to a medium or TD.  Play a favorite tank for a while.  I typically pick up one of my top WR tanks (Matilda toon anyone?).

 

I haven't seriously platoon in the Matilda in quite some time! I'm totally up for this! Before the update comes out (which I'm guessing will be August 4th).

 

I mainly haven't been playing it because of my recent found love for my A-32. SPEED! VRRRM VRRRM! BOOM!


 

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Phodilus #34 Posted 28 July 2015 - 02:27 AM

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I'll just save the link to this topic for future use....

 

This is an absolutely amazing post. Bravo and well done sir


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itsnotpersonal #35 Posted 28 July 2015 - 02:38 AM

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Well done! Kudos. :honoring:
 

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zippojinx #36 Posted 28 July 2015 - 03:59 AM

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The only time I win is when I get lumped in with people who know how to play. So basically everyone else is to blame for my win rate

 


NevirSayDie #37 Posted 28 July 2015 - 04:38 AM

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Great post, of course! The only thing I'd say is that the official statement, while informative, isn't really a good resource. I can't really recommend anyone with questions to read it, because it is technically accurate, but makes it appear that Blitz actually has a system for matchmaking. All MM really does is put 14 random players from across 2-3 tiers together (and make sure each team has 1 platoon if there are 2 toons in those 14 random players). 

 

I agree that the best way to enjoy the game is to accept the fact that the matchmaker isn't out to get anyone, that it's completely random, and that most teams will not be even and large swings in short-term WR are guaranteed. From a standpoint of pure principle, the matchmaker bothers me because it's so poorly designed, but the gameplay is still fun enough to make up for its design flaws. 



_Diesel_41_ #38 Posted 28 July 2015 - 04:42 AM

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Thanks brother! I needed this. Been pretty hard on myself lately thinking I needed to carry harder but, it is what it is. Thanks Van.

 


fredlf #39 Posted 28 July 2015 - 05:06 AM

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Nicely done, Van. Wise words that apply to much more than a tank video game. Kudos, man.

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worldoftanksblitzcanada #40 Posted 28 July 2015 - 07:13 AM

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Awesome post nice picture CC Sly and well my WR has risen q bit but by not much




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