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Win Rate Analysis


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Mere_Anarchy #1 Posted 24 November 2014 - 03:38 PM

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The following table is my attempt to model the percentile breakdown of World Tanks Blitz player stats similar to that used for World of Tanks (see WoTLabs). Summary statistics were calculated for the variables that are largely comparable irrespective of number of games played or type of vehicle.  These include Win Rate (WR), Hit Rate (HR), Damage Ratio (DaR), and Destruction Ratio (DeR) This data is based on a sample of 491 players randomly collected over the past 10 days.

 

Win Rate

Hit Rate

Destruction

Ratio

Damage

Ratio

Category

Percentile

Under 40.7%

Under 49.9%

Under .43

Under .51

Beginner

0.00%

40.7-44.6%

50-60.3%

.43-.65

.51-.67

Basic

6.00%

44.7-47.7%

60.4-68.6%

.65-.84

.68-.83

Below Average

20.00%

47.8-50.2%

68.7%-75%

.85-1.11

.84-1.01

Average

40.00%

50.3-52.9%

75.1%-79.7%

1.12-1.43

1.02-1.24

Above Average

63.00%

53.0-57.3%

79.8%-84.2%

1.44-1.98

1.25-1.56

Good

82.00%

57.4-67%

84.2%-87.1%

1.99-2.90

1.57-1.99

Very Good

95.00%

67.1+%

87-2%+

2.90+

2.00+

Great

99.00%

 

How to use this table - simply find the range of scores that bracket your individual statistics and read to the right to find both your overall percentile as well as skill category (as defined by WoTLabs).  For example, my own win rate of just over 54% puts me (barely) in the category of ‘Good’ players – meaning my win rate is better than that of 82% of active WoTB players.

 

Are these the stats the best measures of a player’s ability?

Spoiler

 

Can this provide a ranking of players? 

Spoiler

 

Should you care? 

Spoiler

 

For those who might be interested, the following sections provide more details on the mechanics of my analysis. 

 

Sampling

Spoiler

 

Is the sample representative?  

Spoiler

 

Is the sample accurate? 

Spoiler

 

Yay -  Stats and Graphs!!!

Spoiler

 

Relationships between Variables

Spoiler

 

If you’ve gotten this far – I’m impressed.  Thanks for reading and I welcome any comments, feedback, or suggestions.  


Edited by vanpeenen, 24 November 2014 - 05:30 PM.

 

 


Venemy #2 Posted 24 November 2014 - 03:45 PM

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Yay! I'm "good"!

what's the point of living if you're just going to be miserable?


Androyce #3 Posted 24 November 2014 - 03:48 PM

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Very interesting. Thanks for putting in the effort to collect all that data.


Mere_Anarchy #4 Posted 24 November 2014 - 03:49 PM

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View PostAndroyce, on 24 November 2014 - 09:48 AM, said:

Very interesting. Thanks for putting in the effort to collect all that data.

 

Thanks!  In reality I did it as much for myself as anyone else.  I just like understanding the structure behind stuff.

 

 


1991Syclone #5 Posted 24 November 2014 - 03:50 PM

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Depending on which categories I use, I fall between above average and good. 

TwistedMetal_ #6 Posted 24 November 2014 - 03:52 PM

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Nicely done! Love the part about not giving a "FROGS FAT ---" In the end it's only a game....One you will be back in 7 min or less to have at it again! + 1



Mere_Anarchy #7 Posted 24 November 2014 - 03:54 PM

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View PostTwistedMetal_1, on 24 November 2014 - 09:52 AM, said:

Nicely done! Love the part about not giving a "FROGS FAT ---" In the end it's only a game....One you will be back in 7 min or less to have at it again! + 1

 

Thanks, I appreciate it.  At the end of the day its all about the fun.

 

 


SGM_zorbaz #8 Posted 24 November 2014 - 03:57 PM

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Thank you, we needed this.

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DrWylde #9 Posted 24 November 2014 - 03:59 PM

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Very impressive... a totally professional job.  You obviously put a lot of time into this, thanks Mr. Statistics!  +1

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Androyce #10 Posted 24 November 2014 - 04:01 PM

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It's interesting that win rate somehow means both more and less than it does on PC. With smaller teams, an individual can have a much larger impact, but the stat is confounded by platooning much more powerfully than on PC. Even though platoons are 2/3 the size, teams are less than 1/2 the size they are on PC. I am happy with my win rate, but would love to know what it could be if I ever platooned (I have maybe 10 platoon battles).

 

I am a bit confused by the mean win rate. 48.9 makes sense. That means on Blitz, 2.2% of battles end in a draw. However, a mean of 49.97 would mean only 0.06% of battles on PC end in draw, which seems unlikely.



Mere_Anarchy #11 Posted 24 November 2014 - 04:02 PM

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View PostDrWylde, on 24 November 2014 - 09:59 AM, said:

Very impressive... a totally professional job.  You obviously put a lot of time into this, thanks Mr. Statistics!  +1

 

Thanks!  I appreciate the compliment.  And yes - I put far too much time into it.  It cut into my playing time. 

 

 


Mere_Anarchy #12 Posted 24 November 2014 - 04:06 PM

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View PostAndroyce, on 24 November 2014 - 10:01 AM, said:

It's interesting that win rate somehow means both more and less than it does on PC. With smaller teams, an individual can have a much larger impact, but the stat is confounded much more powerfully than on PC. Even though platoons are 2/3 the size, teams are less than 1/2 the size they are on PC. I am happy with my win rate, but would love to know what it could be if I ever platooned (I have maybe 10 platoon battles).

 

I am a bit confused by the mean win rate. 48.9 makes sense. That means on Blitz, 2.2% of battles end in a draw. However, a mean of 49.97 would mean only 0.06% of battles on PC end in draw, which seems unlikely.

 

In this case the mean win rate is by individual player - meaning the average player has won 48.9% of their games (not that 48.9% of all games have ended in a victory).  In this case its not possible to differentiate draws from losses since they are both 'not wins' so to speak.  Hope this helps to clarify things.  

 

 


Androyce #13 Posted 24 November 2014 - 04:11 PM

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 View Postvanpeenen, on 24 November 2014 - 11:06 AM, said:

 

In this case the mean win rate is by individual player - meaning the average player has won 48.9% of their games (not that 48.9% of all games have ended in a victory).  In this case its not possible to differentiate draws from losses since they are both 'not wins' so to speak.  Hope this helps to clarify things.  

 

I must be missing something. I would think the mean win rate would be the same as the number of games ending in victory. For instance, if draws were not possible then the mean win rate should be 50%, should it not? For every individual player's win, there is an individual players's loss. The mean win rate should be the same as number of wins ever in the game/number of games ever played. For every player with a 60% win rate! there must be a player with a 40% win rate! or two players with 45% win rates, etc.



jtemple507 #14 Posted 24 November 2014 - 04:12 PM

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Nice little chart! I'm above average at 50.4%, much better than on Xbox, which sits at 47%. I suppose the smaller teams are to blame for that.

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Mere_Anarchy #15 Posted 24 November 2014 - 04:18 PM

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View PostAndroyce, on 24 November 2014 - 10:11 AM, said:

 

I must be missing something. I would think the mean win rate would be the same as the number of games ending in victory. For instance, if draws were not possible then the mean win rate should be 50%, should it not? For every individual player's win, there is an individual players's loss. The mean win rate should be the same as number of wins ever in the game/number of games ever played.

 

Ahh, now I think I see what you mean.  Are you arguing that in essence given all the players it should be like a coin flip - that given enough iterations the overall win rate should approach the statistical expected number (the law of large numbers)?  In this case, I guess because of the human element this isn't the case making it not a totally random process. But to be honest - I don't know.  Anyone else want to try?

 

 


DukeNukedem #16 Posted 24 November 2014 - 04:20 PM

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Fantastic analysis - while some will quibble with some of the results I for one really appreciate the effort.  For a while I have quickly judged a player's ability using a ratio of their PR to total games played, knowing this to be flawed but certainly better than PR alone.  Close to or over 1 for this ratio meant a unicum.  For an "at a glance" number, this is still quite good but am using destruction and damage ratios for deeper dive.

 

My compliments.


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Viper8757NC #17 Posted 24 November 2014 - 04:21 PM

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>>Are these the stats the best measures of a player’s ability?  Likely not. <<

Then what was the point of the exercise?  

 

Don’t get me wrong, I applaud you for the effort.  Nonetheless--and like you-- I urge caution for anyone attempting to draw any conclusions of ‘ability’ from your findings.

 

NOTE:  and I see upthread that people are already--and mistakenly--doing so.

 

Question:  were the players pulled from a random sample or just the games in which they participated? 


Edited by Viper8757NC, 24 November 2014 - 04:23 PM.


OGFiery #18 Posted 24 November 2014 - 04:23 PM

    Stop Tunneling Me

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This has a lot of effort put into it with a good-sized sample to back it up.

 

Not poking at your graph, but I've noticed that a majority of the great players on Blitz started around the same time, right when it was released, to be exact.


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mmohaupt #19 Posted 24 November 2014 - 04:23 PM

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Wow Vanpeeenen. This will be an ego boost to some as well (hopefully) a realization that your just average. :-) Thanks for taking the time to do this.

 

~M



mmohaupt #20 Posted 24 November 2014 - 04:24 PM

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View Postconcep, on 24 November 2014 - 11:23 AM, said:

This has a lot of effort put into it with a good-sized sample to back it up.

 

Not poking at your graph, but I've noticed that a majority of the great players on Blitz started around the same time, right when it was released, to be exact.

 

When exactly was it released? I didn't find it until it was "Featured" on the app store.

~M






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