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Is it possible to play without paying?

high silevern This is how WG determines how

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del1012489148 #1 Posted 27 April 2017 - 04:57 PM

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How Much is Blitz "Pay to Play" 

By Highexpectationz and Silevern

 

 

Note: "Please note the all values were calculated using server averages using data recorded from wotbstar's Tank Averages section. The values we have found are for the average player; obviously the majority of players currently reading this thread are above-average players, and therefore can deal more damage, win more frequently, etc. which leads to more credits earned per battle in all tiers. If you grinded to tier X without having spent a penny, nice job. Pat yourself on the back. This data is no longer representative of you. We're tried to illustrate what the average player will earn and why it's concerning that the average player earns such a small amount, which leads to greater pressure to spend money in order to progress."

 

All information has been proven through mathematical formulas which were tested with a .46% error, which is close to nothing, meaning the following information is very accurate. All numbers are based on standard values, no premium account, no clan supply, no x2 rewards etc.This post will be updated 

 

Formulas Used: 

 

Credits Gained per battle:

Spoiler

 

Credits Gained per grind (single tank)

Spoiler

 

All values were pulled directly from Wotbstars and from In game.*

 


TIER 1

 

An average blitz player starts off with 1300 gold and approximately 46,000 credits. We will ignore these values for now.

 

Tank Winrate Tier Spots Assisted Damage Damage Damage assisted by others credit coefficient Profits
                 
MS-1 56.6 1 0.91 0 213 0 117.6 3834
T1 Cunningham 54.76 1 1.19 0 186 0 108.5 3263
Renault Otsu 60.19 1 0.72 0 243 0 140 4988
Leichttraktor 53.78 1 0.97 0 175 0 118 3386
Renault FT 59.77 1 0.88 0 263 0 140 5287
Vickers Medium I 55.27 1 0.68 0 202 0 156.4 4879
                 
Averages 56.72833333 1 0.8916666667 0 213.6666667 0 130.0833333 +4273

 

This table shows the average profits for each tank, averages are based upon player averages which were pulled from wotbstars. Using the formula on the top of the page we took the averages and found out the average credits gained at tier 1 is 4,273. Which at the tier is good. But what about equipment, provisions, and camo? We will ignore premium ammo to make things more simple. Well that doesnt matter because I am sure the 46,000 credits u received earlier will be used to buy the tier 2. 

 


 

Lets skip to where things get interesting. If you want to see the average profits for each tier, feel free to check out this document, Here you will find profits for each tank, as well as averages by tier. 

 

https://docs.google....dit?usp=sharing

 


 

TIER 7 

 

Tank            Winrate          Tier          Spots                     Avg Damage                  Credit coef.     Profit

AMX M4 45 55.75 7 1.06 0 1275 0 102 20499
JPanther 45.84 7 0.8 0 1034 0 111 19142
St. Emil 48.02 7 0.51 0 1021 0 105 18037
Tiger (P) 50.07 7 0.94 0 1065 0 98 17392
Tiger I 47.56 7 0.89 0 991 0 103 17403
SP I C 50.28 7 1.33 0 1045 0 95 16715
Panther I 47.35 7 1.23 0 973 0 91 15235
VK 30.02 (D) 49.31 7 1.34 0 1010 0 100 17205
Chi-Ri 50.9 7 1.06 0 1115 0 105 19208
AT 7 53.59 7 0.75 0 1140 0 139 25890
Black Prince 51.99 7 0.92 0 1075 0 104.5 18732
Comet 50 7 1.43 0 1006 0 99.4 17100
T25 AT 49.2 7 0.81 0 1022 0 113 19512
T25/2 49.84 7 0.86 0 1038 0 91.2 15923
T29 53.02 7 1.02 0 1088 0 91.4 16551
T71 51.07 7 1.33 0 967 0 95 16006
T20 48.18 7 1.26 0 895 0 99.1 15856
SU-100M1 54.52 7 0.89 0 1149 0 86 16141
SU-152 53.28 7 0.63 0 1136 0 92 17076
IS 52.94 7 0.98 0 1064 0 109 19469
KV-3 55.5 7 0.83 0 1128 0 112 20825
LTTB 53.77 7 1.7 0 1023 0 92 16154
KV-13 52.34 7 1.02 0 922 0 95 15599
T-43 54.76 7 1.36 0 1083 0 95.6 17367
                 
average 51.21166667 7 1.039583333 0 1052.708333 0 101.0083333 17877

 

At tier 7 an average player gains an average of 17,877 credits per game. Which is quite a lot, now lets add in consumables. 

Consumables price are based on number of times used in battles, which is 2 times. (Table for credit values of consumables on google doc)

 

Lets assume an average player equips adrenaline, multi-repair, and repair. Total cost per game is 18,000 credits. That means on average a player loses 23 credits per game, and that is not including camo, provisions, and premium ammo!!! 

 

Lets add the cost of camo and provisions: (Table of credit values for provisions on google doc)

 

So we are at -23 credits a game, with the additional cost of camo and provisions, the net gain comes down to approximately -12,000 credits. AT TIER 7. Imagine how bad it is at tier 8,9, even 10. 


Lets Apply this to a tank line:

 

I will use the most popular tank line in game which is is-7 which has 11,499 players (NA).

 

Every player starts off with 1300 gold and approximately 46,000 credits. Tier 1 tanks are free,

 

So you start off with the ms-1, equip and sexy camo, get some provisions, and some equipment, and now you are left with 46,000 - 13,400 = 32,600 credits

 

But now you are grinding an average of 260 xp per game and closing in on the T-26.

 

330 + 170 + 150 XP to fully grind ms-1 + 600 xp for T-26 = 1250 total xp Which will take about 5 games. Each game you equip camo and provisions you lose more credits, how much? 7,500 credits per game. but you also gain 4,273 credits, meaning net gain is -3227 credits

 

After tier 1 you have a total of 29,373 credits

Note: This is not counting premium shells.

 

Assuming you stop equipping provisions for the next few tiers because you are low on credits, an average player should be able to reach tier 6, only after selling all the previous tanks, in order to buy that tier 6 tank. So now we are on the Kv-2/Kv-1s After progressing through tiers 1-6 you should have 200,00 credits in your account (after buy tier 6 tank)

 

But you are stuck, Tier 6 is where things get tough for an average player, unicums are playing the rudy, victory, bromwell etc. SO average winrate decreases. The average winrate at tier 6 is 51.12%

 

You dont have enough for equipment but you buy what you can, so you spend 180,000 on gun rammer.

 

You are now left on 20k credits, and cant afford to get camo or provisions, however you get repair kit and adrenaline which is 15,200 credits. Now you are left with 5,000 credits in your account and you hit battle. After an average battle you gain 14,357 base credits - (15200 on consumables) and you end up with net gain of -843 credits. 

 

What does all this mean?

 

Without paying a single penny to wargaming it is not impossible, but very difficult to make any progress after tier 6, you simply do not have the credits to afford a tier 7, or even continue to play tier 6.

 

 

 


Edited by HighExpectationz, 27 April 2017 - 06:07 PM.

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Boris_Convel #2 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:02 PM

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Outstanding work. My premium account ran out today and it's next to impossible to make any coin. WG should be fixing this in 3.8 rather than adding equipment timers.

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RenegadeCommander #3 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:03 PM

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You have done some very good work b0ss. Good job to the both of you! I hope this opens up some eyes

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theguyiscoming #4 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:05 PM

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hi dad, gg

Silevern #5 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:06 PM

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The spreadsheet took forever to finish but I'm glad we took the time to prove this conclusion.

 

A note, the info above was calculated with no Clan Supply, no Premium account, and more importantly no Premium tanks. 


Edited by Silevern, 27 April 2017 - 05:16 PM.


Bronyman50 #6 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:06 PM

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I'm offended you didn't use my work as a base for it since i did it but rather I did how long it look to get a Tier 10 with only the stuff wargaming gave to me for free, which took me 1.75 years to get it and I had to break a record In order to get it 

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anonym_is9SLlXKWnO8 #7 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:06 PM

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I never spend any money on this game and I played 40k+battles which means blitz can be played with out spending also.

WG need money to pay for it's employees and to start the new updates so they need money but recent update shows that they become too greedy and making changes to equipment.



djhiz #8 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:09 PM

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It's not impossible... I've not payed a penny except for finishing the gold for my strv, and that prem doesn't net many creds. I just wanted it because it was unique. I've made it to a couple tanks in tier 8, and have no problems with wr, creds, or otherwise... You just have to be fiscally smart (and do well...)

Edited by djhiz, 27 April 2017 - 05:12 PM.

 

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Toolan #9 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:16 PM

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View Post0_DatGuy_0, on 27 April 2017 - 12:02 PM, said:

Outstanding work. My premium account ran out today and it's next to impossible to make any coin. WG should be fixing this in 3.8 rather than adding equipment timers.

 

I let my premium time expire prior to the goose fiasco. Must play a lot of premium tanks to make credits. For those that have no premium tanks, it is impossible to use all of the equipment, camo, and consumables and still earn credits. 

DobyIR #10 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:19 PM

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Good work guys. +5

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Forgotten_Fox #11 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:22 PM

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*Sly please pass this on to WG HQ

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ShootinSabot #12 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:23 PM

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Good post, Thanks.

I think maybe your conclusion is missing a bit of nuance. By your own calculations the game is FTP up to tier 5. I think that meets the definition of Free to Play. Your's and mine inbuilt desire to meet goals and show progress is what makes the game  pay to play. 


                                                                                          

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ClydeCooper421 #13 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:23 PM

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I haven't given WG a penny and I have a churchill 3 and multiple tier 5 tanks. I'm grinding toward a tier 6 atm. 

 

I'm strictly F2P on my PC account also and have 1 tier 10 and multiple other high tier tanks along with multiple premium tanks I've won through missions etc. 

 

And this is more of an issue of pay to advance..not pay to win. I don't think WoT is pay to win. 

 

This game is easy to advance in without paying anything. 


Edited by ClydeCooper421, 27 April 2017 - 05:28 PM.

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reluctanttheist #14 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:30 PM

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+1 Very nice work.

 

On the one hand, devs need to eat.  If it's pay to PLAY (and not pay to WIN) then I'm ok with this - but this goes back to 2.8 and is not a new problem is it?  And it has nothing to do with the equipment situation, right?


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olddatsunfan #15 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:31 PM

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Once you get to tier 5 there are some hard choices that are necessary to make regarding provisions and camo I think ...  Generally for tiers 5, 6 and 7 I would only mount camo on anything that's not a heavy ...  I also generally choose to run with 1 large provision, either large food or large fuel ...  I will only run both my premiums ...  Given my meh win rate I can still pull in enough credits to fund my tier 8 and 9 tanks, but, slowly ...  Running premium time or tanks would sure help the process along, I've chosen to run premium tanks rather than premium time as I'm on for only a couple of games at a time at random times of day ...
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__Crusader6__ #16 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:36 PM

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Pre 2.8 I ground 11 tank lines to tier X and didn't spend a cent (other than $1.99 for the RamII Dec 2014 which I rage sold after sucking) 

 

One point to note that it is entirely possible to grind more credits at lower tiers and no advance the way illustrated above. 

 

More importantly, so what if it's not F2P beyond tier 5. 

   Honestly I'm utterly fine with that, the game isn't free for WG to run or develope changes to, why should it be Free to play for players after a certain point. 


 
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ClydeCooper421 #17 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:39 PM

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View Post__Crusader6__, on 27 April 2017 - 05:36 PM, said:

Pre 2.8 I ground 11 tank lines to tier X and didn't spend a cent (other than $1.99 for the RamII Dec 2014 which I rage sold after sucking) 

 

One point to note that it is entirely possible to grind more credits at lower tiers and no advance the way illustrated above. 

 

More importantly, so what if it's not F2P beyond tier 5. 

   Honestly I'm utterly fine with that, the game isn't free for WG to run or develope changes to, why should it be Free to play for players after a certain point. 

 

This ^


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General_Vodka #18 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:41 PM

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Sure its hard, but we all must remember that it used to be easier. The teams where not as bad and there used to be no provisions. Thats how i got to my is7. But yes, now its much harder to make coin, unless u got op (balanced) tanks like the Helsing :trollface:

cheasesteak #19 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:44 PM

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I've spent a modest amount on the game in the past, but let premium lapse some last year when the updates moved the game to a more PTW stance.  I don't begrudge the devs making as much as they can, but at the same time, that doesn't mean I have to be the one they milk. 

 

If you are off premium time, it is still possible to make credits in low and mid tiers, but you need to spend wisely on camo and provisions.  No protective kits, camo on lights and TDs only.  Fuel only on tanks with poor HP or traverse.  Rations only if the tank has a decent earnings co-efficient. 

 

Yes, this puts you at a small disadvantage compared to folks running premium time, but so be it.


 

 

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chicagoK #20 Posted 27 April 2017 - 05:45 PM

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I have spent a total of $2 on this game, and that was in 2014. My last 10 battles, all tier 7:

 

Dracula / win / +20371

Dracula / loss / +11743

Dracula / win / +36387

SP1C / loss / -16119

SP1C / win / +5544

Dracula / loss / +14756

Dracula / loss / +9109

LTTB / win / +998

LTTB / win / +2873

LTTB / win / +15371

 

Net: +101,033 credits.  No premium time, no missions completed, no provisions, some prammo, definitely used consumables and camouflage.  Granted, most of that came from the credit-printing Dracula, but even the LTTB and SP1C were in the black (+8667 overall).  I've posted about this before using T9 tanks as an example.  It is 100% possible to earn credits as a F2P player, unless you're driving the AMX 50 120.  I have purchased every T1-T9 tank tree tank in the game, and a few T10s.  Some I've bought, sold, and bought again.  I am currently sitting on just shy of 30 million credits. 

 






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