49 replies to this topic

[_Weeping_Angel_]

Mission :  Track which team gets the first kill and how does that correlate to my WR.  I played all games solo with no rated games.  This would remove interference by platoon mate or battles that a normal player could not have based on their rating.  I tracked regular and supremacy games separately.

 

Overall

WR regular games            61.41 (308 games)

WR supremacy games     62.66 (231 games)

 

I was pretty consistent in WR between the two types of games.  I was surprised that I played only 40% of my games in supremacy mode.  I now know what percentage of games are played that way.

 

Frist Kill​  +1 means my team went up one tank / -1 means my team went down one tank

 

+1 tank 51.29% of games played (279 games)

+1 tank 49% of regular games played (311 games)

+1 tank 55% of supremacy games played (233 games)

 

Win Rates

	OVERALL	REGUALAR	SUPREMACY
US (+1)	90.32%	88.82%	92.13%
THEM (-1)	32.08%	35.22%	27.36%

 

​I won over 90% of the games when my team gets the first kill in.  WHAT!?!  Yes, read that again.  I won 90% of the games I get the first kill in.  That really surprised me.  I was able to win 32% of games that we fell behind a tank. This really shocked me and the stats stayed pretty consistent from day 1 of tracking.  I only had one time where I had a winning record for a day when going down a tank early for both regular and supremacy games.  I was pretty consistently as an under 50% WR player when losing the first tank.  I need to get my regular games +1 above 50%.  That will give me more wins.  Something to focus on in the future.

 

I expected to win only between 70-80% of first kill games and win around 40-50% when down a tank. I was surprised being a 60% plus WR as a solo tanker the disparity between the two. 

 

First kill is even more important in supremacy.  My WR when +1 was better and when -1 was worse.  Trying to manage bases and still get kills when down a tank seems to really make a difference.

 

	REGULAR	SUPREMACY	REGUALR	​SUPREMACY
TIER	+1	+1	-1	-1
X (57 games)	100% (9-0)	92% (12-1)	19% (2-9)	7% (1-13)
IX (54 games)	94% (15-1)	90% (9-1)	18% (3-14)	36% ((4-7)
VIII (184 games)	90% (46-5)	93% (42-3)	33% (17-35)	22% (8-28)
VII (200 games)	84% (47-9)	94% (44-3)	44% (27-34)	39% (14-22)
VI (50 games)	94% (16-1)	77% (7-2)	38% ((6-10)	13% (1-7)

 

* added game totals and record to each part. 

 

This is the hard part of not finishing out to 1000 games.  Some of these areas have smaller numbers of games played than I would like.  When you only get 10 to 20 games in a sector there is greater chance of variable or runs (good or bad) that can influence results.  Most tier 9 and 10 games were spread out as one or two at a time over different days so it wasn't the same player base.

 

Tier 7 surprised me.  I know tier 7 gets pulled up to tier 8 often so that doesn't surprise me that it was my lowest WR for +1 in regular games.  What Surprised me was it was also my best at making a comeback in both regular and supremacy games.  Tier 7 never stops surprising me when I actually track it.

 

Conclusions

1.  Get the first kill.  It greatly improves your chances of winning.

2. Tiers IX and X are very brutal.   First kill is paramount.  I had a large drop off in WR when -1 tank.  I was much harder pulling out a win when you lose that first tank at those tiers.

3. Importance of focused fire.  A team that focuses on one tank and gets them out of the game early has a huge advantage towards winning.

4. Yolos will ruin your chances of winning if they face resistance.  You know that tank that runs off the opposite direction and usually dies.  Now I know for sure I hate them. 

5. I need to improve my +1 in regular games.  I was basically 50/50.  I want to try and get that up to 55%.  Now I know why and what to work on to do that.

 

Questions

1.  Looking at these results does it mean it is important to be aggressive early to get that first kill?  Not so much that you die trying but should we be more aggressive early?

2.  I like to sit back early an see what happens and conserve HP.  Looking at this am I wrong in doing this and what to make sure I am helping get that first kill more.

 

Edited by _Weeping_Angel_, 17 October 2017 - 02:54 PM.

[_Weeping_Angel_]

Reserved

 

When I have time I am going to break the info down between driving heavies vs lights/meds.  I don't drive enough TDs to split into that category.

Edited by _Weeping_Angel_, 16 October 2017 - 10:22 PM.

[SpartacusDiablo]

Very interesting.

[j0nn0]

Well, of course the first kill matters a lot. It sets the tone and pace of the battle in addition to removing a much needed gun from play. The moment you lose a player, you’re down to 6/7 of fighting capacity. This skews towards worse and worse odds the larger the kill disparity between teams grows. There are some exceptions to this, but very rarely do people let you simply take out several tanks in a row and even out the scoreboards.

[Jaq___]

Wow. There has always been a lot of speculation about this in the high tiers (just keeping a gun alive), especially when we lost the +/-2 MM and it was much harder to carry with the new +1/-1. It is actually Shocking to see these kind of numbers though. Very interesting. Dislike the Yolo and die in 30 seconds guy even more now.

Edited by jaquevius01, 16 October 2017 - 10:02 PM.

[BigSmoker1965]

I always kinda figured this was the way it worked for me personally.  I appreciate you putting the proof to it.  Now wonder what this would be like if a super uni and a scrub tried the same thing.  Would it be the same?  After seeing the guy today with like 30k in battles and a 38% win rate I do wonder.  

[Colonel_Sanders1]

Great job gathering this info and putting it together for us, +1

[wannabeunicum]

OP can you keep this and your other data collecting link(I think top tier data) in your signature. Although I fear that one was slightly flawed because of the t49.

[_UrgleMcPurfle_]

First of all, thank you so much for your effort spent into compiling this data. You got a decisive +1 from me.

 

I agree with your point about focus fire 100%. 

 

To add my two cents, I think the factor that determines who gets the first kill, and then the win, is spotting. If team A is unspotted while B is completely lit up, at the beginning of the engagement the unspotted team will always get the first few shots in. That will also let the tanks know where to go in order to fulfill their roles (e.g. the light/med tanks flank, TDs snipe). 

[r3cursion]

Great info, thanks for posting.  One thing I think it says is to press hard when you have an advantage.  We've all been involved in battles where 3 greens sit when facing one red because nobody will move, meanwhile reds are pressing where they have numbers and easily win.

[_Weeping_Angel_]

wannabeunicum, on 16 October 2017 - 04:45 PM, said:

OP can you keep this and your other data collecting link(I think top tier data) in your signature. Although I fear that one was slightly flawed because of the t49.

 

Why would the t49 flaw the data? Over time any tank will balance out. You will get the same on your team as facing it. Good and bad players.

 

WG will only allow one link in sig soi will add top vs bottom in sig till i figure out how to add more. 

Edited by _Weeping_Angel_, 16 October 2017 - 11:50 PM.

[minitel_NA]

Amazing job, do you mind if I place a duplicate with proper link in the EU forums ? There are some data nuts over there as well.

 

My my first thoughts are for MM+-1 and how it killed the ability to come back, how much weight has shifted onto the first yolo noob to die uselessly.

 

Then my second thought, and you, others and me are reflecting a lot on that recently...

there is a tight relationship between spotting early, being aggressive (as in doing damage, rather than spotting), staying alive and being still In the game in the end. And here is that : spotting improves your winrate a lot less than staying alive.

and a big trend amongst unicum is to play a lot more  like PC. Wait until red team lit up by themselves and farm damage methodically. Making sure to make the damage to the first red that shows up, rather than trying to find them. Of course it depends on tanks being played and other factors, but it’s a strong movement towards more camping and more defensive games. Losing hp or a tank has simply become too costly.

 

there are more to find in your data, I hope the discussion keeps going.

 

link t9 read in EU :

http://forum.wotblitz.eu/index.php?/topic/45464-blitz-stats-analysis-tier-v-x-tank-ranking-page-3/

 

[SpartacusDiablo]

the game is rigged to give Society members the first kill.

[_Weeping_Angel_]

minitel_NA, on 16 October 2017 - 05:50 PM, said:

Amazing job, do you mind if I place a duplicate with proper link in the EU forums ? There are some data nuts over there as well.

Be my guest. I don't do much statistical analysis. I keep it pretty simple. 

[ShootinSabot]

Good post OP. This is right in line with my own non- quantified observations.

[Jylpah]

Thanks OP! Very interesting. Could you please publish number of battles for each of those 20 tier / +/1 / Game mode brackets? 

[LetsGoThisWay]

_Weeping_Angel_, on 16 October 2017 - 09:51 PM, said:

Mission :  Track which team gets the first kill and how does that correlate to my WR.  I played all games solo with no rated games.  This would remove interference by platoon mate or battles that a normal player could not have based on their rating.  I tracked regular and supremacy games separately.

 

Overall

WR regular games            61.41 (308 games)

WR supremacy games     62.66 (231 games)

 

I was pretty consistent in WR between the two types of games.  I was surprised that I played only 40% of my games in supremacy mode.  I now know what percentage of games are played that way.

 

Frist Kill​  +1 means my team went up one tank / -1 means my team went down one tank

 

+1 tank 51.29% of games played (279 games)

+1 tank 49% of regular games played (311 games)

+1 tank 55% of supremacy games played (233 games)

 

Win Rates

	OVERALL	REGUALAR	SUPREMACY
US (+1)	90.32%	88.82%	92.13%
THEM (-1)	32.08%	35.22%	27.36%

 

​I won over 90% of the games when my team gets the first kill in.  WHAT!?!  Yes, read that again.  I won 90% of the games I get the first kill in.  That really surprised me.  I was able to win 32% of games that we fell behind a tank. This really shocked me and the stats stayed pretty consistent from day 1 of tracking.  I only had one time where I had a winning record for a day when going down a tank early for both regular and supremacy games.  I was pretty consistently as an under 50% WR player when losing the first tank.  I need to get my regular games +1 above 50%.  That will give me more wins.  Something to focus on in the future.

 

I expected to win only between 70-80% of first kill games and win around 40-50% when down a tank. I was surprised being a 60% plus WR as a solo tanker the disparity between the two. 

 

First kill is even more important in supremacy.  My WR when +1 was better and when -1 was worse.  Trying to manage bases and still get kills when down a tank seems to really make a difference.

 

	REGULAR	SUPREMACY	REGUALR	​SUPREMACY
TIER	+1	+1	-1	-1
X	100%	92%	19%	7%
IX	94%	90%	18%	36%
VIII	90%	93%	33%	22%
VII	84%	94%	44%	39%
VI	94%	77%	38%	13%

 

Tier 7 surprised me.  I know tier 7 gets pulled up to tier 8 often so that doesn't surprise me that it was my lowest WR for +1 in regular games.  What Surprised me was it was also my best at making a comeback in both regular and supremacy games.  Tier 7 never stops surprising me when I actually track it.

 

Conclusions

1.  Get the first kill.  It greatly improves your chances of winning.

2. Tiers IX and X are very brutal.   First kill is paramount.  I had a large drop off in WR when -1 tank.  I was much harder pulling out a win when you lose that first tank at those tiers.

3. Importance of focused fire.  A team that focuses on one tank and gets them out of the game early has a huge advantage towards winning.

4. Yolos will ruin your chances of winning if they face resistance.  You know that tank that runs off the opposite direction and usually dies.  Now I know for sure I hate them. 

5. I need to improve my +1 in regular games.  I was basically 50/50.  I want to try and get that up to 55%.  Now I know why and what to work on to do that.

 

Questions

1.  Looking at these results does it mean it is important to be aggressive early to get that first kill?  Not so much that you die trying but should we be more aggressive early?

2.  I like to sit back early an see what happens and conserve HP.  Looking at this am I wrong in doing this and what to make sure I am helping get that first kill more.

 

 

Thanks for sharing. Interesting.

[jdm7]

Awesome that you did this Weeping Angel.  I was shocked that the numbers were that slanted.  Very interesting.  And yes, this shows just how much of an impact the yolo-one-man-death-march has on your team winning. Brutal.

[dayton07277]

Thanx OP!

[BobboEvans]

Wow.  This is good stuff and had to be time consuming to track for so many battles!

I did a thread on the T-34-85 a while back and I stressed the need to get that tank into the key positions early.  Both to spot and control the early game.  I'm not sure I realized just how critical that was.  That also explains why teams that camp spawn usually get wrecked.  Once the spotter goes down, the team is doomed.