MM, RNG and pseudo-randomness.
I've read quite a bit of this topic, and I’m not entirely certain, but I may actually have something NEW to add. Much of the discussion here revolves around randomness and rigging. For many forumers it appears to be an "either/or" proposition: Either it's completely random, or it's rigged against me (or in rare cases, for me.) If you don't agree with total randomness, you must be a tin foil hatter. If you don’t agree with rigging, you must be WG’s hoe. But the truth may be a bit more complicated. It is my proposition that MM and RNG are both algorithms which strive to create an apparent randomness, or pseudo randomness. But by definition, an algorithm cannot create randomness, only apparent randomness, since they use mathematical formulae to generate the number. I mean, think about it--a highly structured mathematical equation to approximate randomness cannot in fact create randomness, only the appearance of randomness. If you have a large enough sample of numbers that have been generated you can actually deconstruct the algorithm itself.
So, what does that have to do with MM , RNG and randomness? The answer is that, the simpler the algorithm, the easier it is to recognize a recurring pattern. and my guess is that whatever the algorithm is for RNG, it's got to be fairly simple since it needs to be calculated and applied in very short time frames. A highly complex (let's say hexadecimal strength) algorithm would take too long to calculate and apply. It needs to be something simpler. But the problem with a simple algorithm is that patterns are easily observable, which is to say we start to observe repeating patterns (I had X number of shots with zero damage...it must be rigged!). But what you are seeing is not proof of rigging, it's just proof that WG is utilizing a pseudo random number generator rather than a true random number generator (PRNG vs TRNG.)
You might want to take a look at this bitmap representation of the differences between true RNG and pseudo RNG--
https://www.random.o...nalysis/#visual
You can clearly see a pattern in the PRNG bitmap. If you were to apply this to shot dispersion, or damage rolls you would also see a pattern. Again, proof not of rigging, but simply proof of PRNG. If you would like to read a fuller treatment of the subject
https://www.random.org/randomness/ would be a good start.
But what about MM you ask? Certainly that is rigged, no?
Well, again, we are back to algorithms. We know for a fact that there is an algorithm. WG has confirmed certain elements of an algorithm such as +1/-1. The only question is, what are the elements of the MM algorithm? The simpler the algorithm, the easier it is to deconstruct, and the easier it is to detect a pattern (I had X number of battles low tier, MM must be rigged!) But what you are seeing is not proof of rigging, it's just proof that WG is utilizing an algorithm with discernible, repeating patterns.
But all this is just my hypothesis, no real proof. However, I do believe that we as a community could confirm or reject this hypothesis. If we have a large enough data set to pull from, we could deconstruct the algorithm. We could submit various data for a “runs test” to determine randomness.
If anyone is interested, that is.
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Vigor555, on 28 April 2019 - 11:44 AM, said:
. I don't know if that has anything to do with it or not.
