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What 500 battles have told me about Win Rate, MM, and the Players of Blitz

rigged mm rng win rate players

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Gavidoc01 #1 Posted 04 April 2018 - 02:15 PM

    Platinum Card Wallet Warrior

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For those of you who have been following, I decided to start tracking battles in Blitz after Crusader6 had started it. For this I curse him. My first two posts on this topic can be found here:

 

http://forum.wotblitz.com/index.php?/topic/92842-what-100-battles-have-told-me-about-win-rate-mm-and-the-players-of-blitz/page__fromsearch__1

http://forum.wotblitz.com/index.php?/topic/93132-what-200-battles-have-told-me-about-win-rate-mm-and-the-players-of-blitz/page__fromsearch__1

 

Well, after a total of 79,200 manually entered points of data, here are my thoughts on: Win Rate, Match Making and the Players of Blitz (with a few other bits thrown in). When doing this effort I made a conscious decision NOT to play OP tanks and over the 400 battles (that I tracked tanks) I played 65 different tanks between Tiers VII-X.

 

Let's start with:

 

Overall results by battle count and update.

Spoiler

 

So what does the above tell me? Overall (as suspected) the players continue to get worse with every update. Granted I didn't do that many battles in 4.6 or 4.8 but yikes, I did notice it get progressively worse after each update. When I started this project I was sitting at 65.85% WR. Today, I am at 65.79%. I saw the sharpest decline in WR over the last 200 battles starting halfway through update 4.7 which continued into update 4.8. In 500 battles I had one draw.

 

By Tier, Tiers VII and X are a complete disaster while Tiers VIII and IX are actually quite enjoyable. 

 

Your Skill Matters

 

Spoiler

 

As you can imagine, your skill has a direct impact on your ability to win. The better your skill, normally the higher your WR. With my WR included, Green had a higher WR than Red over 80% of the time. When you remove my WR from the equation, the % of those 402 battles that Green was better than red was 51% of the time. In essence of those battles Green had a Higher Wr than Red, I as a player impacted that average WR almost 30% of the time.

 

 

 

Top 10 Most Popular Tanks By Tier

I actually found the next results interesting. Now, these are for only battles 101-500 as I wasn't tracking tank type before that. I did find the results for Tier VIII interesting as the IS-6 and IS-5 did not show up at the top as I expected. Despite the nerf, the T49 is still one of the most popular tanks at Tier VIII. For Tier VII I was surprised to see so many SP1C's. Tier IX and X were as expected IMO.

 

Spoiler

 

The Players of Blitz

Well now, if you have a 50% WR, you are better than 51.34% (give or take) of the players of blitz. If you have a 55% WR, BE PROUD! You are better than 83% of the entire playerbase.

 

Overall in 500 battles I fought with 5802 players (not including me and not including repeats). 

 

Spoiler

 

Of those players, next is how often I faced those with a 55% or higher WR in battle.

Spoiler

 

As expected, 60 and 65% and higher players are rare indeed and if you see one, recognize the name and hope to have them on your team again.

 

Platoons

People always say that platoons will have an impact on your WR. This IMO is not as big of an impact now as it used to be based on the changes that were made to MM and to Platoon MM in particular. Heck, when you look at my results, I actually lost MORE when I was platooned vs. when I wasn't. What having a Platoon CAN do is definitely increase OR decrease your team's average WR depending on the calibre of the player you are platooned with. What does this mean?

 

Simple and nothing scientific. The lower you are on the WR scale, the greater the importance of NOT platooning with someone of equal skill. The higher you are on the WR scale, be open to platooning with those on the lower end of the scale, IF THEY ARE WANTING TO IMPROVE.

 

Going back to this image:

 

Spoiler

 

In 102 platoon battles, Green had a higher WR than red 86% of the time. Remove the platoons (red and green) the average dropped to 58% of the time. Since I typically platoon with players between 55-65%, what this shows is that combined, it gave us a greater chance to win. The challenge though is that we only won 62% of our battles despite having a higher average WR 86% of the time. What does that mean? Could MM been pairing us with more players than the red platoon to compensate for our higher WR's? Not from the data I saw. Just that in platoon battles I wasn't as lucky with RNG.

 

In Summary

 

 

  1. As I and others have said before and will say again. Your skill matters. Those who struggle more in the game will complain more and more about rigged MM when it doesn't exist.
  2. There is no rigged MM.
    • If MM was rigged, it was rigged in my favor and even after you remove me, Green had a higher WR more than 50% of the time. Awesome. I get rigged MM to benefit me. 
  3. There is no rigged RNG.
    • Worse losing streak I had was 5 in a row and two runs of 4 in a row. Why so low? Simple. I have a rule to turn off the game after 5 losses in a row.
  4. Platoon quality matters.
    • IMO people with a 55% or higher Wr should only platoon with equally skilled players or those wanting to improve. 
    • IMO people with a WR between 50 and 55% should platoon only with those equal, better or those willing to learn
    • IMO people below 50% WR should only platoon with 50% and above players and want to improve.
  5. The implementation of being able to select only supremacy battles was perfect in 4.8 and one of the best added features. Before that I was averaging 55% supremacy battles but never would get one when I had a supremacy mission. With the change, supremacy battles become more common as I needed them.

 

So, what has the above shown me personally? Ignorance is bliss. I actually like the game a bit less now than I did before. Why? Not because of the game itself but due to the fact that the players are progressively getting worse and there is no apparent attempt by WG to try and help them get better in game which is unfortunate.

 

 

Appendix

As an added, here are some additional bits of information such as the tanks I played, how many times I was in a particular map and just an overall snapshot showing what the different data pages looked like that I used.

 

First the Tanks I played. As you can see nothing really OP as I continued with my grinding tanks:

Spoiler

 

Next are the various maps:

Spoiler

 

And finally some of the snapshots of the data tracking sheets. Just to show it really happened.

 

Spoiler
Spoiler

 

 

 


My Blitzstars

 

I'm a Platinum Card Wallet Warrior.

You’re welcome for supporting the game. 


TonnerreCadien #2 Posted 04 April 2018 - 02:27 PM

    Cabri dans le Maïs

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Wow. Thanks. This was a lot of work, Man. Very interesting results.

b5cjLSY.jpg

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dindincf #3 Posted 04 April 2018 - 02:28 PM

    Potato Rights Activist

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Great work! This data is awesome.

  https://www.blitzstars.com/player/com/dindincf                                            

#bringtankboomback

Tier X's: Leopard 1 / T110E4 /  T110E5 /  M48A1 Patton / Object 263 / IS-7 / Object 140 / T-62A / JPE-100 / AMX 50B

“At the moment, you should forget about the M60.”        -ZIoydd, on 01 August 2017 - 06:01 AM

 


p30_1 #4 Posted 04 April 2018 - 02:29 PM

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So what this tells me is that mm is rigged in your favor?  and each update players are getting worse? Sound to me like you waisted a bunch of time running data . Sh!t next time just pm me ill tell you what you need to know so your not waisting time running data on the obvious. 

dindincf #5 Posted 04 April 2018 - 02:30 PM

    Potato Rights Activist

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Were you able to quantify the effects of being in the society?

Edited by dindincf, 04 April 2018 - 02:32 PM.

  https://www.blitzstars.com/player/com/dindincf                                            

#bringtankboomback

Tier X's: Leopard 1 / T110E4 /  T110E5 /  M48A1 Patton / Object 263 / IS-7 / Object 140 / T-62A / JPE-100 / AMX 50B

“At the moment, you should forget about the M60.”        -ZIoydd, on 01 August 2017 - 06:01 AM

 


PanzertroopenVT #6 Posted 04 April 2018 - 02:31 PM

    First Sergeant

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It's like lays potato chips commercials, I can't eat just one, well I can't just play 4-5 games a day. My wr sucks big diks, I try to have fun but finding team work oriented players is becoming harder and harder.

Panzerwaffe, later also Panzertruppe (German for "Armoured Force", "Armoured Arm" or "Tank Force". Waffe[combat] "arm"

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TonnerreCadien #7 Posted 04 April 2018 - 02:32 PM

    Cabri dans le Maïs

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View Postp30_1, on 04 April 2018 - 08:29 AM, said:

So what this tells me is that mm is rigged in your favor?  and each update players are getting worse? Sound to me like you waisted a bunch of time running data . Sh!t next time just pm me ill tell you what you need to know so your not waisting time running data on the obvious. 

 

Please define "waisting" - is it something a tailor does with pants?

b5cjLSY.jpg

I'm too old to be a seal clubber! I can't tell you the last time I even went to a club!

"Go back to tier III!" - Every stat-fetisher who ever got salty with me in post-game chat

Des fois ce jeu est laid comme un coin de banquette, laisses-mon te dire...


_The_Tactition_ #8 Posted 04 April 2018 - 02:33 PM

    The Best Tactician

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Wow! I was one of the players in your games. Port Bay, believe I was in Mod. 1. Great job. Although you show how it’s done none of us will really know what effort you put in. o7

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_Astolfo #9 Posted 04 April 2018 - 02:56 PM

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Pogchamp on your data, what a proper member of the community unlike scumbag my buttons! xD
I haven't found a good signature, and this is probably a placeholder. But I like anime and sleep, and unlike most people, I can shoot tanks in any game mode reasonably well.

SpartacusDiablo #10 Posted 04 April 2018 - 02:59 PM

    Highly Illogical

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Good work man.  This data is outstanding!

Find me on Discord, [SpartacusDiablo#7879]

Rest in Peace CJ.  You will be missed.


SpartacusDiablo #11 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:02 PM

    Highly Illogical

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View Postp30_1, on 04 April 2018 - 09:29 AM, said:

So what this tells me is that mm is rigged in your favor?  and each update players are getting worse? Sound to me like you waisted a bunch of time running data . Sh!t next time just pm me ill tell you what you need to know so your not waisting time running data on the obvious. 

Would you care to explain how exactly Wargaming decides who to rig MM for or against?  What are their criteria?  Would you care to post any actual proof of your hypothesis or is it just baseless allegations that you've dreamed up to excuse your in game performance?


Find me on Discord, [SpartacusDiablo#7879]

Rest in Peace CJ.  You will be missed.


Zuke76 #12 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:06 PM

    Get zuked

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View Postp30_1, on 04 April 2018 - 02:29 PM, said:

So what this tells me is that mm is rigged in your favor?  and each update players are getting worse? Sound to me like you waisted a bunch of time running data . Sh!t next time just pm me ill tell you what you need to know so your not waisting time running data on the obvious. 

 

You know, for some reason, I have NEVER seen you post anything positive, all negative

_Astolfo #13 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:13 PM

    Senior Sergeant

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View PostZuke76, on 04 April 2018 - 10:06 AM, said:

 

You know, for some reason, I have NEVER seen you post anything positive, all negative

 

 

look at the post above where he said the data is outstanding, and plus I like spart for having a criticial opinion, one that I disagree time to time, but a good one at that. 


I haven't found a good signature, and this is probably a placeholder. But I like anime and sleep, and unlike most people, I can shoot tanks in any game mode reasonably well.

ShootinSabot #14 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:16 PM

    Excelling at Mediocrity

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Gav - Great post and Thank You. I am truly in awe of the effort this took to confirm the basic assumption that skill matters. It gives me hope that I might actually continue to improve. 

                                      

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SpartacusDiablo #15 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:17 PM

    Highly Illogical

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View PostButton2011, on 04 April 2018 - 10:13 AM, said:

 

 

look at the post above where he said the data is outstanding, and plus I like spart for having a criticial opinion, one that I disagree time to time, but a good one at that. 

I appreciate your sticking up for me but I think Zuke was talking about P30... Who I don't think has actually ever posted a positive or productive post.


Edited by SpartacusDiablo, 04 April 2018 - 03:20 PM.

Find me on Discord, [SpartacusDiablo#7879]

Rest in Peace CJ.  You will be missed.


RockMonsterNo1 #16 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:21 PM

    Junior Sergeant

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Holy crap dude!! That is an immense amount of data! It is indeed sad to see that the general WR of the community is decreasing, however, the that isn't very surprising because each new event draws in so many new players and they have to learn how to play the game. I do still find it shocking that I am in the top 80% of players by WR (59ish) 

Thanks forall the work you put into this! o7


Edited by RockMonsterNo1, 04 April 2018 - 03:21 PM.


Rou_Garou #17 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:28 PM

    Carriers needed - apply inside

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Good Stuff OP! I appreciate the efforts. 

I personally believe that MM is not rigged but WG is considering only tank makeup(I think) when building teams instead on considering player skills.  

The skill of the player i.e., WR, DPM, KPM, etc; (according to your deductions) are a strong reason for a successful battle.

When looking at win rates of green and red, I've seen the winning team with an avg. WR greater than the losing team usually wins.

I'm thinking that if when building a team, MM should look at skills along with tank makeup.

Players and tanks make a team. Not just the tank.


Don't rush inBe patientDon't brawl unnecessarilyKnow your tanks and enemy tanks;  Know your tanks' role;  

Knowing maps allows situation awareness; Mini-map is a mighty map;  Drive to cover;

Fight like you have no armor; Relocate and reset camo oftenBe the lover of cover;  

Hull down is OP; Stay on high ground; Don't go where you don't know

A I M 


reluctanttheist #18 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:35 PM

    Canuck Didactics

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This is amazing.  Great work man!  Really puts some hard numbers to how the game works, and puts paid to the idea that MM is rigged.

 

You said the most commonly driven tier 8 tank is the IS-3 - is that the Defender or the regular version?


Edited by reluctanttheist, 04 April 2018 - 03:35 PM.

Tanks:  _X: T110E5, T110E3, FV215b(183), IS-7, Obj.140  _IX: M103, T-54  _VIII: IS-6, T34, Lowe, T-44, IS-6, IS-3D  _VII: T-43, Comet, E25, AT-15A, SU-122-44
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little_brother_of_war #19 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:40 PM

    ᎠᏁᏦᏗ ~ A-ne’-tso-di

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Nice work!     :great:

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”If it bothers you so much, why talk about it?”

>>>============> anet’sodi’ <============<<<


PanzertroopenVT #20 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:48 PM

    First Sergeant

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I doubt it's rigged,

Posted Image


Panzerwaffe, later also Panzertruppe (German for "Armoured Force", "Armoured Arm" or "Tank Force". Waffe[combat] "arm"

Hey you—yes you, with all that moist, succulent meat in your mouth. Give all of it to me. succulentnmeals!

https://youtu.be/XebF2cgmFmU






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