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What 500 battles have told me about Win Rate, MM, and the Players of Blitz

rigged mm rng win rate players

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Zuke76 #21 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:53 PM

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View PostButton2011, on 04 April 2018 - 03:13 PM, said:

 

 

look at the post above where he said the data is outstanding, and plus I like spart for having a criticial opinion, one that I disagree time to time, but a good one at that. 

 

View PostSpartacusDiablo, on 04 April 2018 - 03:17 PM, said:

I appreciate your sticking up for me but I think Zuke was talking about P30... Who I don't think has actually ever posted a positive or productive post.

 

  Yeah, was talking about P30 not Spartacus, Spart is good :)

Fu_Manchu_ #22 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:58 PM

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Great stuff Gav! Interesting results.

AKA HanYolo_.


Kiser_Sosei #23 Posted 04 April 2018 - 03:59 PM

    Who is Kiser Sosei?!?

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Block Quote

A.  "Just that in platoon battles I wasn't as lucky with RNG"
B.  "There is no rigged RNG."

 

 
Which is it? Do you have any data to support either way? I think this is the data you should pursue now. Your current data is excellent and makes MM seem neutral. Now RNG is the target. 

I too have been feeling like platoons are not helping at all with Wins. I had a game recently with 9 shots and 3 pens. This has happened many times as I am sure all of us have had some of these games. How is it that we normally land 80% and then have a 30% game? 

I also had a game recently in my IS-6 and was hull down and a dragon was snap shotting my turret and penning. Not once but twice.

Then another game where green took out red teams' two heavies at the start and turned them into big fat donuts. But then the red wolf pack of Vk 28's, Both low 51% ish players, were able to drive around like mad men landing every miracle shot while jumping over hills etc. Defeating our toon of two 60% plus players, and the rest of the green team. This is statistically highly improbable. 

RNG does some really huge swings. In my book I called that rigged. Especially when WG had said that they manipulate RNG on WOT. I don't see why they also would not use the same game mechanic on WOTB. 

 

I ask you kind sir to please investigate RNG anomalies a bit closer. It would be nice to have some data to look at. 

 


Edited by Kiser_Sosei, 04 April 2018 - 04:04 PM.

"MM may not be rigged but RNGesus only answers the prayers of one team."
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Fu_Manchu_ #24 Posted 04 April 2018 - 04:00 PM

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View PostPanzertroopenVT, on 04 April 2018 - 08:48 AM, said:

I doubt it's rigged,

Posted Image

 

I'm not sure what the pic is supposed to be telling me. What am I missing?

AKA HanYolo_.


Dan_Deerso #25 Posted 04 April 2018 - 04:01 PM

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Man, I'd better post a comment so I remember to overanalyze your data! Mind if I get a link to a blank template of that, as well?

XChuikovX #26 Posted 04 April 2018 - 04:03 PM

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View PostGavidoc01, on 04 April 2018 - 09:15 AM, said:

For those of you who have been following, I decided to start tracking battles in Blitz after Crusader6 had started it. For this I curse him. My first two posts on this topic can be found here:

 

http://forum.wotblitz.com/index.php?/topic/92842-what-100-battles-have-told-me-about-win-rate-mm-and-the-players-of-blitz/page__fromsearch__1

http://forum.wotblitz.com/index.php?/topic/93132-what-200-battles-have-told-me-about-win-rate-mm-and-the-players-of-blitz/page__fromsearch__1

 

Well, after a total of 79,200 manually entered points of data, here are my thoughts on: Win Rate, Match Making and the Players of Blitz (with a few other bits thrown in). When doing this effort I made a conscious decision NOT to play OP tanks and over the 400 battles (that I tracked tanks) I played 65 different tanks between Tiers VII-X.

 

Let's start with:

 

Overall results by battle count and update.

Spoiler

 

So what does the above tell me? Overall (as suspected) the players continue to get worse with every update. Granted I didn't do that many battles in 4.6 or 4.8 but yikes, I did notice it get progressively worse after each update. When I started this project I was sitting at 65.85% WR. Today, I am at 65.79%. I saw the sharpest decline in WR over the last 200 battles starting halfway through update 4.7 which continued into update 4.8. In 500 battles I had one draw.

 

By Tier, Tiers VII and X are a complete disaster while Tiers VIII and IX are actually quite enjoyable. 

 

Your Skill Matters

 

Spoiler

 

As you can imagine, your skill has a direct impact on your ability to win. The better your skill, normally the higher your WR. With my WR included, Green had a higher WR than Red over 80% of the time. When you remove my WR from the equation, the % of those 402 battles that Green was better than red was 51% of the time. In essence of those battles Green had a Higher Wr than Red, I as a player impacted that average WR almost 30% of the time.

 

 

 

Top 10 Most Popular Tanks By Tier

I actually found the next results interesting. Now, these are for only battles 101-500 as I wasn't tracking tank type before that. I did find the results for Tier VIII interesting as the IS-6 and IS-5 did not show up at the top as I expected. Despite the nerf, the T49 is still one of the most popular tanks at Tier VIII. For Tier VII I was surprised to see so many SP1C's. Tier IX and X were as expected IMO.

 

Spoiler

 

The Players of Blitz

Well now, if you have a 50% WR, you are better than 51.34% (give or take) of the players of blitz. If you have a 55% WR, BE PROUD! You are better than 83% of the entire playerbase.

 

Overall in 500 battles I fought with 5802 players (not including me and not including repeats). 

 

Spoiler

 

Of those players, next is how often I faced those with a 55% or higher WR in battle.

Spoiler

 

As expected, 60 and 65% and higher players are rare indeed and if you see one, recognize the name and hope to have them on your team again.

 

Platoons

People always say that platoons will have an impact on your WR. This IMO is not as big of an impact now as it used to be based on the changes that were made to MM and to Platoon MM in particular. Heck, when you look at my results, I actually lost MORE when I was platooned vs. when I wasn't. What having a Platoon CAN do is definitely increase OR decrease your team's average WR depending on the calibre of the player you are platooned with. What does this mean?

 

Simple and nothing scientific. The lower you are on the WR scale, the greater the importance of NOT platooning with someone of equal skill. The higher you are on the WR scale, be open to platooning with those on the lower end of the scale, IF THEY ARE WANTING TO IMPROVE.

 

Going back to this image:

 

Spoiler

 

In 102 platoon battles, Green had a higher WR than red 86% of the time. Remove the platoons (red and green) the average dropped to 58% of the time. Since I typically platoon with players between 55-65%, what this shows is that combined, it gave us a greater chance to win. The challenge though is that we only won 62% of our battles despite having a higher average WR 86% of the time. What does that mean? Could MM been pairing us with more players than the red platoon to compensate for our higher WR's? Not from the data I saw. Just that in platoon battles I wasn't as lucky with RNG.

 

In Summary

 

 

  1. As I and others have said before and will say again. Your skill matters. Those who struggle more in the game will complain more and more about rigged MM when it doesn't exist.
  2. There is no rigged MM.
    • If MM was rigged, it was rigged in my favor and even after you remove me, Green had a higher WR more than 50% of the time. Awesome. I get rigged MM to benefit me. 
  3. There is no rigged RNG.
    • Worse losing streak I had was 5 in a row and two runs of 4 in a row. Why so low? Simple. I have a rule to turn off the game after 5 losses in a row.
  4. Platoon quality matters.
    • IMO people with a 55% or higher Wr should only platoon with equally skilled players or those wanting to improve. 
    • IMO people with a WR between 50 and 55% should platoon only with those equal, better or those willing to learn
    • IMO people below 50% WR should only platoon with 50% and above players and want to improve.
  5. The implementation of being able to select only supremacy battles was perfect in 4.8 and one of the best added features. Before that I was averaging 55% supremacy battles but never would get one when I had a supremacy mission. With the change, supremacy battles become more common as I needed them.

 

So, what has the above shown me personally? Ignorance is bliss. I actually like the game a bit less now than I did before. Why? Not because of the game itself but due to the fact that the players are progressively getting worse and there is no apparent attempt by WG to try and help them get better in game which is unfortunate.

 

 

Appendix

As an added, here are some additional bits of information such as the tanks I played, how many times I was in a particular map and just an overall snapshot showing what the different data pages looked like that I used.

 

First the Tanks I played. As you can see nothing really OP as I continued with my grinding tanks:

Spoiler

 

Next are the various maps:

Spoiler

 

And finally some of the snapshots of the data tracking sheets. Just to show it really happened.

 

Spoiler
Spoiler

 

 

 

Did you factor in the butt kissing boost for certain people or clans? 



Veritas_601 #27 Posted 04 April 2018 - 05:18 PM

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Such great work! Amazing. curses that we don't have such wonderful data from the perspective of a 45%win rate player although your data is super telling across a certain spectrum... anyway this is lovely

SpartacusDiablo #28 Posted 04 April 2018 - 05:26 PM

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View PostZuke76, on 04 April 2018 - 10:53 AM, said:

 

 

  Yeah, was talking about P30 not Spartacus, Spart is good :)

Aw shucks :)


Find me on Discord, [SpartacusDiablo#7879]

Rest in Peace CJ.  You will be missed.


ShootinSabot #29 Posted 04 April 2018 - 05:26 PM

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View PostXChuikovX, on 04 April 2018 - 09:03 AM, said:

Did you factor in the butt kissing boost for certain people or clans? 

 

Your tinfoil hat is on order.

                                      

Full time Spud, part time potato 

              Striving to be an Ambassador to help grow the game. 


MarBearCat #30 Posted 04 April 2018 - 06:57 PM

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After reading Gavidoc01's initial post on this thread I feel like......................

 

Spoiler

 


 

 

Heavy Is The Cat That's Carried!


MarBearCat #31 Posted 04 April 2018 - 07:04 PM

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View PostTonnerreCadien, on 04 April 2018 - 09:32 AM, said:

 

Please define "waisting" - is it something a tailor does with pants?

 


 

 

Heavy Is The Cat That's Carried!


player_1234567890 #32 Posted 04 April 2018 - 07:05 PM

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It's good to know that everything that I've always been saying is 100% correct, because out of the summary in the OP, I have mentioned points 1-4 numerous times before, and I didn't do any statistical analysis to conclude that. I just always knew that, because I'm not dumb.:playing:

 

But it's good that there are stats and figures to back up what I always thought.:izmena:

 

People who whine about the MM being rigged are unintelligent, they are conspiracy prone lunatics, and they are subpar players who like to blame others for their own suckage.

 

There are plenty of things that I have to criticize in this game, but a rigged MM is not one of them. No, the game is not conspiring against you to make YOU lose. There are merely a ton of sucky players around and very often you will get completely clueless clown teams. That's just common sense. :justwait:


Edited by player_1234567890, 04 April 2018 - 07:06 PM.


voyager35 #33 Posted 04 April 2018 - 07:09 PM

    Ilha Formosa

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Great work, very valuable data. However, I doubt your conclusion about the worse playerbase after each update is legit. 

 

You tried to prove that by showing your win rate drops after time and each updates, but this could be due to many alternative reasons. For example, it could be you that is getting worse, not the playerbase. I am not being personal, but most of time when people's WR increase, they usually believe it was because they are doing better, not because the playerbase is getting better. So "my winrate drops" -> "playerbase got worse" does not make much sense to me. At least you need to prove that you are keeping the same performance, but it will be hard to show that with the in-game stats. If you happen to have your WN8 with time, it might help, but even your WN8 drops does not necessary mean your are worse. It's complicated. 

 

Also, even if you can prove your performance stay the same, I think the fact that your WR is dropping will actually give you the opposite conclusion: the player base is getting better. Why? Because they are harder to beat now. If people are getting worse, you should be able to seal clubbing them much easier like doing it in the lower tiers. You should find the lower tiers like pre-K where no one know what to do and high-tiers like the old low-tiers where everyone just YOLO and die.



Gavidoc01 #34 Posted 04 April 2018 - 07:09 PM

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View Postp30_1, on 04 April 2018 - 09:29 AM, said:

So what this tells me is that mm is rigged in your favor?  and each update players are getting worse? Sound to me like you waisted a bunch of time running data . Sh!t next time just pm me ill tell you what you need to know so your not waisting time running data on the obvious. 

 

MM is random. Sometimes the randomness is in your favor and other times it isn't. It might be obvious to you and others yet the purpose of this excersise was to provide a clear avenue to data that was collected for those who say it is rigged to counter their argument.

 

View Post_The_Tactition_, on 04 April 2018 - 09:33 AM, said:

Wow! I was one of the players in your games. Port Bay, believe I was in Mod. 1. Great job. Although you show how it’s done none of us will really know what effort you put in. o7

 

Yes. I was in the JPanther II that battle. 

 

View PostButton2011, on 04 April 2018 - 09:56 AM, said:

Pogchamp on your data, what a proper member of the community unlike scumbag my buttons! xD

 

?

 

View PostShootinSabot, on 04 April 2018 - 10:16 AM, said:

Gav - Great post and Thank You. I am truly in awe of the effort this took to confirm the basic assumption that skill matters. It gives me hope that I might actually continue to improve. 

 

Everyone can improve. Just takes patience and willingness to learn.

 

View Postreluctanttheist, on 04 April 2018 - 10:35 AM, said:

This is amazing.  Great work man!  Really puts some hard numbers to how the game works, and puts paid to the idea that MM is rigged.

 

You said the most commonly driven tier 8 tank is the IS-3 - is that the Defender or the regular version?

 

It was the IS-3. The Defender was 28th on the list of Tier VIII tanks.

 

View PostKiser_Sosei, on 04 April 2018 - 10:59 AM, said:

 
Which is it? Do you have any data to support either way? I think this is the data you should pursue now. Your current data is excellent and makes MM seem neutral. Now RNG is the target. 
 

I ask you kind sir to please investigate RNG anomalies a bit closer. It would be nice to have some data to look at. 

 

 

I have average WR by team and with the platoons taken out. I can provide something if you wish but will not be doing anymore data tracking. I'm done with that.

 

View PostDan_Deerso, on 04 April 2018 - 11:01 AM, said:

Man, I'd better post a comment so I remember to overanalyze your data! Mind if I get a link to a blank template of that, as well?

 

Yes I can. Just send me a PM with an email and I will send you the native excel file.

 

View PostXChuikovX, on 04 April 2018 - 11:03 AM, said:

Did you factor in the butt kissing boost for certain people or clans? 

 

We don't talk about The Society.


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I'm a Platinum Card Wallet Warrior.

You’re welcome for supporting the game. 


Gavidoc01 #35 Posted 04 April 2018 - 07:17 PM

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View Postvoyager35, on 04 April 2018 - 02:09 PM, said:

Great work, very valuable data. However, I doubt your conclusion about the worse playerbase after each update is legit. 

 

You tried to prove that by showing your win rate drops after time and each updates, but this could be due to many alternative reasons. For example, it could be you that is getting worse, not the playerbase. I am not being personal, but most of time when people's WR increase, they usually believe it was because they are doing better, not because the playerbase is getting better. So "my winrate drops" -> "playerbase got worse" does not make much sense to me. At least you need to prove that you are keeping the same performance, but it will be hard to show that with the in-game stats. If you happen to have your WN8 with time, it might help, but even your WN8 drops does not necessary mean your are worse. It's complicated. 

 

Also, even if you can prove your performance stay the same, I think the fact that your WR is dropping will actually give you the opposite conclusion: the player base is getting better. Why? Because they are harder to beat now. If people are getting worse, you should be able to seal clubbing them much easier like doing it in the lower tiers. You should find the lower tiers like pre-K where no one know what to do and high-tiers like the old low-tiers where everyone just YOLO and die.

 

The beauty of blitzstars is the ability to track your own personal stats over a period of battles and time. That tool is there thus no reason to track it separately.

 

As player skill decreases, your skill has to increase to see a continual increase in your own WR. My WR has been stuck at the 65.8 mark for a long time. I have personally peaked in my ability to carry teams. So by not improving my skill, and coupling that with poorer skill from others it means my ability to carry a battle is decreased. Below are my battle stats since I started tracking the 500 battles. If you review you will see that overall my performance has not varied much over those battles yet my WR has for the most part decreased. What I do find interesting is that the higher my spot value, the higher my personal WR per battle set.

 

Spoiler

 


Edited by Gavidoc01, 04 April 2018 - 07:20 PM.

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NoobieDude #36 Posted 04 April 2018 - 07:31 PM

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fking amazing Gav!!!

when i first started this game i thought WR was weighted for everyone. as my WR increased i realized it was me starting to carry teams. in other words it is a me thing.



Kiser_Sosei #37 Posted 04 April 2018 - 07:32 PM

    Who is Kiser Sosei?!?

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Could you for instance in your data see this:

 

1. How many game you were drastically below your hit and or pen average. 

2. And how was correlated to your wins and losses. 


"MM may not be rigged but RNGesus only answers the prayers of one team."
My WOTB Youtube Channel.

https://www.blitzsta...com/Kiser_Sosei


voyager35 #38 Posted 04 April 2018 - 08:03 PM

    Ilha Formosa

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What I was trying to say is your win rate drop does not mean the player base got worse. That's only one possible reason of many. It could also because the update itself introduce new factors that makes carry harder, or the new map design and new game mechanisms make skill less relevant to win rate. You need more data to support your conclusion. Nevertheless, other parts of the study looks good.

 

 



shadynastys #39 Posted 04 April 2018 - 08:54 PM

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Thanks for the effort and for sharing this.  I don't platoon a lot, but also "feel" like I lose more when I platoon which is typically with a circa 60% WR player like myself.  Where WG may be tinkering is in the matching of platoons between green and red.  I've noticed that often when there's a premium clan toon on my team, there is also one on the other team, not always, but too often for chance.  Would be really curious to know avg WR of just you and your toonmate compared to avg WR of the opposing platoon.  Anyway, hope you are retired and/or not married, entering all these data had to be tedious.

Gavidoc01 #40 Posted 04 April 2018 - 09:30 PM

    Platinum Card Wallet Warrior

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View Postvoyager35, on 04 April 2018 - 03:03 PM, said:

What I was trying to say is your win rate drop does not mean the player base got worse. That's only one possible reason of many. It could also because the update itself introduce new factors that makes carry harder, or the new map design and new game mechanisms make skill less relevant to win rate. You need more data to support your conclusion. Nevertheless, other parts of the study looks good.

 

 

 

That's fair but from what I have.

 

Average WR for both teams (not including me)

4.6: 50.64%

4.7: 50.43%

4.8: 50.59%

 

WHile there was an uptick in 4.8 WR, it is still lower than 4.6.


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I'm a Platinum Card Wallet Warrior.

You’re welcome for supporting the game. 






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