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What 500 battles have told me about Win Rate, MM, and the Players of Blitz

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Gavidoc01 #41 Posted 04 April 2018 - 09:36 PM

    Platinum Card Wallet Warrior

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View Postshadynastys, on 04 April 2018 - 03:54 PM, said:

Would be really curious to know avg WR of just you and your toonmate compared to avg WR of the opposing platoon.  Anyway, hope you are retired and/or not married, entering all these data had to be tedious.

 

Green Platoon Avg. WR: 64.68%

Red Platoon Avg. WR: 52.61%

 

It was tedious and I am not retired and married. :)


Edited by Gavidoc01, 04 April 2018 - 09:37 PM.

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___ez_e___ #42 Posted 04 April 2018 - 10:29 PM

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One aspect that I would have love to have seen, is if you continued playing rather then use the 5 loss in a row rule.  

 

I always keep playing as long as I am playing well statistically.    You can run into some nasty losing streaks. 

 

I wonder how that would have changed your stats compared to the 5 loss rule. 


Edited by ___ez_e___, 04 April 2018 - 10:31 PM.


olddatsunfan #43 Posted 04 April 2018 - 11:22 PM

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Holy cow, that's a lot of work.  Thanks for sharing!  One thing though, if the general player base skills are getting worse, would that not cause your own win rate to increase?
QO6Y0A8.gif

Gavidoc01 #44 Posted 05 April 2018 - 12:37 AM

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View Postolddatsunfan, on 04 April 2018 - 06:22 PM, said:

Holy cow, that's a lot of work.  Thanks for sharing!  One thing though, if the general player base skills are getting worse, would that not cause your own win rate to increase?

 

 

IMO not necessarily. To compensate and keep the same my skills wold have to also increase. I have peaked in my skills so my WR would naturally decrease in return IMO.


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BobboEvans #45 Posted 05 April 2018 - 02:28 AM

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View Postdindincf, on 04 April 2018 - 02:30 PM, said:

Were you able to quantify the effects of being in the society?

Deep *sigh*.  It’s The Society.  Not... the society.

 

Scrub. 


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ShootinSabot #46 Posted 05 April 2018 - 02:31 AM

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View PostBobboEvans, on 04 April 2018 - 07:28 PM, said:

Deep *sigh*.  It’s The Society.  Not... the society.

 

Scrub. 

Missed that, thanks for correcting the error. 


                                      

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dindincf #47 Posted 05 April 2018 - 02:37 AM

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View PostBobboEvans, on 04 April 2018 - 06:28 PM, said:

Deep *sigh*.  It’s The Society.  Not... the society.

 

Scrub. 

 

You and BlueMax are the grammar nazi crusaders of the day.  Great company.

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olddatsunfan #48 Posted 05 April 2018 - 02:40 PM

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View PostGavidoc01, on 04 April 2018 - 04:37 PM, said:

 

 

IMO not necessarily. To compensate and keep the same my skills wold have to also increase. I have peaked in my skills so my WR would naturally decrease in return IMO.

 

I'll have to think about this, on first blush, that seems counter intuitive though ...
QO6Y0A8.gif

Gavidoc01 #49 Posted 05 April 2018 - 03:43 PM

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View Postolddatsunfan, on 05 April 2018 - 09:40 AM, said:

 

I'll have to think about this, on first blush, that seems counter intuitive though ...

 

It does but the way I look at it is like this:

 

My current skill level has allowed me to carry enough teams to maintain a consistent WR around 65.8 with the current player base. If the quality of those I play with decreases, it means I in turn would have to do more to carry that type of playerbase. I would in turn have to increase my skills to be able to maintain a 65.8% WR. However, I think that I have personally peaked in my skills in this game and the ability to improve even more just might not be there. Will I see a drop in WR as a result? Yes. Do I think it will be drastic? Not necessarily. Just that as the average player skill decreases, mine in turn will decrease as well unless my skill increases.

 

Imagine it like this. You and I are roommates and we pay $500 in rent a month. We both provide $250. Then all of a sudden you provide $200 which means I have to find a way to provide $300 for us to keep that $500. Now turn that into my personal WR.

 

For me to maintain my WR of 65.8 the players on green have provided X in skill while I have provided Y in skill to hit that 65.8. If Green players are now providing X-1, I have in turn have to provide Y+1 to equal 65.8%. If I have no way of providing +1 than I can no longer maintain the 65.8 and it would decrease by 1. However, if I can continue to improve but not at 1 but say .5 than it decreases slower and I will in turn come to a new "peak" WR as a result slightly lower than my original.

 

 


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PanzertroopenVT #50 Posted 05 April 2018 - 03:53 PM

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Fu_Manchu_ #51 Posted 05 April 2018 - 03:56 PM

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View PostGavidoc01, on 05 April 2018 - 08:43 AM, said:

 

It does but the way I look at it is like this:

 

My current skill level has allowed me to carry enough teams to maintain a consistent WR around 65.8 with the current player base. If the quality of those I play with decreases, it means I in turn would have to do more to carry that type of playerbase. I would in turn have to increase my skills to be able to maintain a 65.8% WR. However, I think that I have personally peaked in my skills in this game and the ability to improve even more just might not be there. Will I see a drop in WR as a result? Yes. Do I think it will be drastic? Not necessarily. Just that as the average player skill decreases, mine in turn will decrease as well unless my skill increases.

 

Imagine it like this. You and I are roommates and we pay $500 in rent a month. We both provide $250. Then all of a sudden you provide $200 which means I have to find a way to provide $300 for us to keep that $500. Now turn that into my personal WR.

 

For me to maintain my WR of 65.8 the players on green have provided X in skill while I have provided Y in skill to hit that 65.8. If Green players are now providing X-1, I have in turn have to provide Y+1 to equal 65.8%. If I have no way of providing +1 than I can no longer maintain the 65.8 and it would decrease by 1. However, if I can continue to improve but not at 1 but say .5 than it decreases slower and I will in turn come to a new "peak" WR as a result slightly lower than my original.

 

 

 

But what about the flip side of the coin? Aren't the red teams you face also experiencing the same skill decline?

 

If anything, I would expect that an overall decline in the playerbase skill level should increase the winrate of top players. I'm a 60% player now, but if I could play with and against nothing but 30%ers, I would think that I would win more than 60%. Maybe I'm wrong though.


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reluctanttheist #52 Posted 05 April 2018 - 04:03 PM

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View PostBobboEvans, on 04 April 2018 - 06:28 PM, said:

Deep *sigh*.  It’s The Society.  Not... the society.

 

Scrub. 

 

Isn't calling it THE society making it appear as if anyone might know what IT is?  I mean, calling it THE society really calls it out.

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voyager35 #53 Posted 05 April 2018 - 04:24 PM

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View PostFu_Manchu_, on 05 April 2018 - 09:56 AM, said:

 

But what about the flip side of the coin? Aren't the red teams you face also experiencing the same skill decline?

 

If anything, I would expect that an overall decline in the playerbase skill level should increase the winrate of top players. I'm a 60% player now, but if I could play with and against nothing but 30%ers, I would think that I would win more than 60%. Maybe I'm wrong though.

 

I agree with you. If the overall playerbase get worse, that means your opponents are also worse, so the "have to carry harder" idea does not make sense. The rent example is also misleading, since he assume he has to pay the same rent, but the fact is since the opponents are also getting worse, the "rent" we have to pay is also less than before.

 

 



PA60Pilot #54 Posted 05 April 2018 - 04:30 PM

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Nice job Gavidoc!  That’s just a ridiculous amount of effort. 

 


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Gavidoc01 #55 Posted 05 April 2018 - 07:00 PM

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View Postvoyager35, on 05 April 2018 - 11:24 AM, said:

 

I agree with you. If the overall playerbase get worse, that means your opponents are also worse, so the "have to carry harder" idea does not make sense. The rent example is also misleading, since he assume he has to pay the same rent, but the fact is since the opponents are also getting worse, the "rent" we have to pay is also less than before.

 

 

 

That is a very good point. This is a perfect example of how "feel" can influence the data. During 4.8 while the overall quality of the players appears to have decreased since I started tracking, it didn't have a correlation to my decrease in WR. When I went back and looked at the average WR's for both teams across all the updates and the average tier WR's, this was the results (the green avg. WR is with me removed).


 

Spoiler

 

Overall, it would appear the reason for my WR decrease had more to do with RNG and MM randomness vs. overall player quality. 

 

The value real data has to debunk your "feelings" of how things are. Even my own.


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I'm a Platinum Card Wallet Warrior.

You’re welcome for supporting the game. 


MarBearCat #56 Posted 05 April 2018 - 07:50 PM

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View PostGavidoc01, on 05 April 2018 - 10:43 AM, said:

 

It does but the way I look at it is like this:

 

My current skill level has allowed me to carry enough teams to maintain a consistent WR around 65.8 with the current player base. If the quality of those I play with decreases, it means I in turn would have to do more to carry that type of playerbase. I would in turn have to increase my skills to be able to maintain a 65.8% WR. However, I think that I have personally peaked in my skills in this game and the ability to improve even more just might not be there. Will I see a drop in WR as a result? Yes. Do I think it will be drastic? Not necessarily. Just that as the average player skill decreases, mine in turn will decrease as well unless my skill increases.

 

Imagine it like this. You and I are roommates and we pay $500 in rent a month. We both provide $250. Then all of a sudden you provide $200 which means I have to find a way to provide $300 for us to keep that $500. Now turn that into my personal WR.

 

For me to maintain my WR of 65.8 the players on green have provided X in skill while I have provided Y in skill to hit that 65.8. If Green players are now providing X-1, I have in turn have to provide Y+1 to equal 65.8%. If I have no way of providing +1 than I can no longer maintain the 65.8 and it would decrease by 1. However, if I can continue to improve but not at 1 but say .5 than it decreases slower and I will in turn come to a new "peak" WR as a result slightly lower than my original.

 

 

 

 

https://i.imgur.com/fI7K2lR.gifv


 

 

Heavy Is The Cat That's Carried!


outersketcher #57 Posted 05 April 2018 - 08:20 PM

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View Postreluctanttheist, on 05 April 2018 - 08:03 AM, said:

 

Isn't calling it THE society making it appear as if anyone might know what IT is?  I mean, calling it THE society really calls it out.

 

correct.. 

That's why members just refer to it as "ts". 

best done in a hushed whisper while munching on chocolate to make it difficult for lip-readers to pick up on the acronym.


Edited by outersketcher, 05 April 2018 - 08:20 PM.

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...don't get hit... don't get hit... don't get hit... OWWW you %$#$!... don't get hit... don't get hit... don't get hit...


_Crusader6_ #58 Posted 05 April 2018 - 08:28 PM

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View PostGavidoc01, on 05 April 2018 - 02:00 PM, said:

 

That is a very good point. This is a perfect example of how "feel" can influence the data. During 4.8 while the overall quality of the players appears to have decreased since I started tracking, it didn't have a correlation to my decrease in WR. When I went back and looked at the average WR's for both teams across all the updates and the average tier WR's, this was the results (the green avg. WR is with me removed).


 

Spoiler

 

Overall, it would appear the reason for my WR decrease had more to do with RNG and MM randomness vs. overall player quality. 

 

The value real data has to debunk your "feelings" of how things are. Even my own.

 

TS proven...

 
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Gavidoc01 #59 Posted 05 April 2018 - 08:45 PM

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View Post__Crusader6__, on 05 April 2018 - 03:28 PM, said:

 

TS proven...

 

Shhhhhhh........

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MarBearCat #60 Posted 05 April 2018 - 09:17 PM

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View Post__Crusader6__, on 05 April 2018 - 03:28 PM, said:

 

TS proven...

 

What does TS mean?

 

 

Heavy Is The Cat That's Carried!






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