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General view on Crate tanks

crates tanks 7-0 gambling crate event f2p math BBB PoV gold

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RuRoc #1 Posted 08 July 2018 - 03:04 AM

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I love looking through the forums and reading the topics of people complaining that they had not received a crate tank after they spent hundreds of dollars on it,  even though WG clearly stated there was a %5 chance of getting the tank .

 

Lets look at it from the perspective of WG

1. Player base wants new tanks

2. WG releases "rare" tanks in crates with low drop rates

3. Players are willing to buy an extensive amount of crates to get the sought after gem/tank

4. Since only a small percent of players will actually get the Tank it becomes rare.

5. WG in the future will release said tank, at a higher price because it will have been a rare tank that very few people will have.

6. Non-gamblers will buy the "sought" after tank.

7. WG makes a butt load of money from both crates, and when the tank is released, thus making double the money.

 

Player bases perspective 

1. Buy crates for  juicy looking tank

2. sees there is a 5% drop rate, thinks to herself / himself / itself that if i buy 20 crates ill get 100% chance of getting said tank.

3. reality sets in 20 crates with 5% drop = 5% drop, tho you get 20 chances to drop the tank 5% of the time.

4. 20 crates becomes 30 then 40 then 50, then a rant on the forum. 

5. swears to never spend a dime on the game again

6. next 3 weeks another crates event comes out, repeats to 1.

 

Conclusion - Why would you gamble away money knowing they WG will eventually release it in the premium shop. If you disagree, its your 100$ that will fund not a tank, but boosters instead...

 

"Spoiler


Edited by RuRoc, 09 July 2018 - 05:39 PM.


Dan_Deerso #2 Posted 08 July 2018 - 03:14 AM

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View PostRuRoc, on 07 July 2018 - 11:04 PM, said:

2. sees there is a 5% drop rate, thinks to herself / himself / itself that if i buy 20 crates ill get 100% chance of getting said tank.

3. reality sets in 20 crates with 5% drop = 5% drop, tho you get 20 chances to drop the tank 5% of the time.

4. 20 crates becomes 30 then 40 then 50, then a rant on the forum. 

 

See, you're not exactly doing the math right, but in the opposite way from those you're complaining about.

 

The real chance you'll get the tank out of one of those crates, as has been said myriad times before, is (1 - [chance to NOT get tank] ^ [number of crates]).

 

So, if you buy 20 crates, that's (1 - 0.95 ^ 20) or 64.2% cumulative chance to get the tank at least once out of one of those crates



RuRoc #3 Posted 08 July 2018 - 03:18 AM

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but every crate is 5%

 

no matter how many crates you buy, it will always be 5% for each crate

 ( 1 - 0.95 = .05 ) which is 5% thats one crate

 

 you repeat said process ^^^^^^^ for each crate you buy....

View PostDan_Deerso, on 07 July 2018 - 08:14 PM, said:

 

See, you're not exactly doing the math right, but in the opposite way from those you're complaining about.

 

The real chance you'll get the tank out of one of those crates, as has been said myriad times before, is (1 - [chance to NOT get tank] ^ [number of crates]).

 

So, if you buy 20 crates, that's (1 - 0.95 ^ 20) or 64.2% cumulative chance to get the tank at least once out of one of those crates

 



gordonchau #4 Posted 08 July 2018 - 03:28 AM

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View PostRuRoc, on 08 July 2018 - 03:18 AM, said:

but every crate is 5%

 

no matter how many crates you buy, it will always be 5% for each crate

 ( 1 - 0.95 = .05 ) which is 5% thats one crate

 

 you repeat said process ^^^^^^^ for each crate you buy....

 

ppl these days*sigh*

yes every crate is 5%, but we are talking about the chance of getting at least ONE tank out of ALL those crates, not EACH crate


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Sh4dowSt4lker #5 Posted 08 July 2018 - 04:36 AM

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Weird poll...

<<<--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->>>

Click the gif to learn how to buy Spare Parts with credits!!! ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)   ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)   \_(ツ)_/¯ )  

>>>------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<<<


_UrgleMcPurfle_ #6 Posted 08 July 2018 - 04:41 AM

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Your math is.....a bit off, but you did hit the nail on the head in terms of WG’s business strategy with crates. Do I like it? No, but if it makes money, then no amount of community outrage will stop them because like someone (I think crusader6) said, WG is not as driven by the community (unfortunately, to a fault) than by data and results.

I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear #7 Posted 08 July 2018 - 08:08 AM

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View PostDan_Deerso, on 07 July 2018 - 10:14 PM, said:

 

See, you're not exactly doing the math right, but in the opposite way from those you're complaining about.

 

The real chance you'll get the tank out of one of those crates, as has been said myriad times before, is (1 - [chance to NOT get tank] ^ [number of crates]).

 

So, if you buy 20 crates, that's (1 - 0.95 ^ 20) or 64.2% cumulative chance to get the tank at least once out of one of those crates

 

View PostRuRoc, on 07 July 2018 - 10:18 PM, said:

but every crate is 5%

 

no matter how many crates you buy, it will always be 5% for each crate

 ( 1 - 0.95 = .05 ) which is 5% thats one crate

 

 you repeat said process ^^^^^^^ for each crate you buy....

 

 

View Post_UrgleMcPurfle_, on 07 July 2018 - 11:41 PM, said:

Your math is.....a bit off, but you did hit the nail on the head in terms of WG’s business strategy with crates. Do I like it? No, but if it makes money, then no amount of community outrage will stop them because like someone (I think crusader6) said, WG is not as driven by the community (unfortunately, to a fault) than by data and results.

 

fcks sake... read what he typed again before assuming the math was off on purpose. This type of mindless criticism is so prevelant on the forums.

Bring back the T49A


RuRoc #8 Posted 08 July 2018 - 10:06 AM

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View PostI_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear, on 08 July 2018 - 01:08 AM, said:

 

 

 

fcks sake... read what he typed again before assuming the math was off on purpose. This type of mindless criticism is so prevelant on the forums.

 

Thank you, I swear the forums are full of window lickers

Strigonx #9 Posted 08 July 2018 - 11:09 AM

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Sell tanks questionable in crates

Retarded russians buy 6 trillion crates

.

.

Profit


https://www.blitzsta...er/com/Strigonx

 

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 Prey doesn’t win at the same ratio as the predators because prey doesn’t have the same attitude. Unfortunately their are are not enough predators to keep the prey in check and  the prey is running rampant. Prey doesn’t care about WR, either directly or indirectly. Thats why they do what they want, that’s why the game has been dumbed down and  that’s why MH was brought about. Without a check it will continuously get worse until the predators are extinct" 4sfield


__Crusader6__ #10 Posted 08 July 2018 - 11:37 AM

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View PostI_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear, on 08 July 2018 - 03:08 AM, said:

 

 

 

fcks sake... read what he typed again before assuming the math was off on purpose. This type of mindless criticism is so prevelant on the forums.

 

View PostRuRoc, on 08 July 2018 - 05:06 AM, said:

 

Thank you, I swear the forums are full of window lickers

 

Well the math was wrong, as neither of you appear understand probability and averages.   

 

I understand what he was trying to say, but his crate math explanation was done poorly.   Which in turn made his general premise overlooked by many. 

  

Go re-read Dan Deerso’s post.  

    Yes each crate has a 5% chance. 

        But when you buy more, the probability of getting a tank from one of those crates doesn’t just stay at 5% when you buy more than one crate.   

 

Yes crates are generally a bad deal - like any sort of gambling, the House always wins, but if you play enough, you can get the odds up that you are more likely to ‘win’.   

 

If he corrected the math, the argument would make a lot more sense. 

 


 
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SanguinaryDan #11 Posted 08 July 2018 - 01:06 PM

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What ever our personal math might be, it is obviously quite profitable for WG. So if you can afford to spend the money on the chance to win a tank, then I hope you do.  If you can’t or won’t?  Then you won’t.  But [edited]* and moaning about it on the forum has only one outcome. It makes you think you have the power to effect and so feel better about the situation. You are wrong, but you “feel” better about it.  Hobbies require disposable income.  By which I mean cash and/or time.  Sometimes you’ll have no choice but to expend more of one than the other.  Regardless, the more disposable income you have the more deeply you can afford to become involved.

 

Sorry to blather on.  But I’m getting frustrated that otherwise reasonably intelligent people can’t understand that even though it is just a game, the company that makes the game does so purely to make a profit. They aren’t trying to screw anybody. They offer a product and if you want to pay for it they’ve done their job well. 

 

*female dog+ing gets censored?  :rolleyes:


Edited by SanguinaryDan, 08 July 2018 - 01:09 PM.

The point of the game is to win.  The purpose of the game is to have fun.  They are not mutually exclusive.

fever872 #12 Posted 08 July 2018 - 01:06 PM

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Well the odds never seem to be in my favor lol

 



I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear #13 Posted 08 July 2018 - 01:08 PM

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View PostRuRoc, on 08 July 2018 - 05:06 AM, said:

 

Thank you, I swear the forums are full of window lickers

You're not wrong


Bring back the T49A


dport02 #14 Posted 08 July 2018 - 05:09 PM

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Ya not matter what people always buy them.

anonym_sIlFGOSMAtmm #15 Posted 08 July 2018 - 05:25 PM

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View Post__Crusader6__, on 08 July 2018 - 11:37 AM, said:

 

 

Well the math was wrong, as neither of you appear understand probability and averages.   

 

I understand what he was trying to say, but his crate math explanation was done poorly.   Which in turn made his general premise overlooked by many. 

  

Go re-read Dan Deerso’s post.  

    Yes each crate has a 5% chance. 

        But when you buy more, the probability of getting a tank from one of those crates doesn’t just stay at 5% when you buy more than one crate.   

 

Yes crates are generally a bad deal - like any sort of gambling, the House always wins, but if you play enough, you can get the odds up that you are more likely to ‘win’.   

 

If he corrected the math, the argument would make a lot more sense. 

 

 

+1

 

View PostRuRoc, on 08 July 2018 - 10:06 AM, said:

 

Thank you, I swear the forums are full of window lickers

 

-1

View PostI_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear, on 08 July 2018 - 08:08 AM, said:

 

 

 

fcks sake... read what he typed again before assuming the math was off on purpose. This type of mindless criticism is so prevelant on the forums.

 

-1

 

some people gamble because they dont know the math behind this ... and i don't think you two understand it.



__Boomer2__ #16 Posted 08 July 2018 - 05:58 PM

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This is hurting my head...too many numbers...I'm not that outstanding with math...I'll just stay away from crates.

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View PostASensationalAsian, on 27 July 2018 - 04:34 PM, said:

Anyone who drives a 183 please commit die.

I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear #17 Posted 08 July 2018 - 07:59 PM

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Omfg I actually can't believe I have to explain this... its like 5th grade level reading comprehension. I know I call out some "forumers" for being complete rocks, but at this point, its like 99% of you idiots failed english or something. 

 

Player bases perspective  - NOT HIS LOGIC AND REASONING, ITS THE LOGIC AND REASONING OF THE PLAYERBASE

1. Buy crates for  juicy looking tank

2. sees there is a 5% drop rate, thinks to herself / himself / itself that if i buy 20 crates ill get 100% chance of getting said tank. - AGAIN, THE LOGIC AND REASONING OF THE PLAYERBASE

3. reality sets in 20 crates with 5% drop = 5% drop, tho you get 20 chances to drop the tank 5% of the time. - HOW THE MATH ACTUALLY WORKS.


Bring back the T49A


_Aiyu #18 Posted 08 July 2018 - 08:08 PM

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no matter how much crates u get, the chances of the tanks drop rate is still only 5% each. did most of these people even pass high school? your chances of getting it doesnt increase

 


I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear #19 Posted 08 July 2018 - 08:10 PM

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To further clarify, as I don't think full caps in bolded font with yellow highlighting is clear enough for some of you, the second point, (2.), is THE WRONG MATH, ON PURPOSE, TO REPRESENT THE THINKING OF THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAYERBASE. The third point, (3.), if you can comprehend the complexity of the grammar, REPRESENTS THE CORRECT MATH BEHIND CRATES. 

Bring back the T49A


_Toast #20 Posted 08 July 2018 - 08:13 PM

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Chromosome count over 100

 

 





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