36 replies to this topic

[Poptart_Pounder]

I love looking through the forums and reading the topics of people complaining that they had not received a crate tank after they spent hundreds of dollars on it,  even though WG clearly stated there was a %5 chance of getting the tank .

 

Lets look at it from the perspective of WG

1. Player base wants new tanks

2. WG releases "rare" tanks in crates with low drop rates

3. Players are willing to buy an extensive amount of crates to get the sought after gem/tank

4. Since only a small percent of players will actually get the Tank it becomes rare.

5. WG in the future will release said tank, at a higher price because it will have been a rare tank that very few people will have.

6. Non-gamblers will buy the "sought" after tank.

7. WG makes a butt load of money from both crates, and when the tank is released, thus making double the money.

 

Player bases perspective 

1. Buy crates for  juicy looking tank

2. sees there is a 5% drop rate, thinks to herself / himself / itself that if i buy 20 crates ill get 100% chance of getting said tank.

3. reality sets in 20 crates with 5% drop = 5% drop, tho you get 20 chances to drop the tank 5% of the time.

4. 20 crates becomes 30 then 40 then 50, then a rant on the forum. 

5. swears to never spend a dime on the game again

6. next 3 weeks another crates event comes out, repeats to 1.

 

Conclusion - Why would you gamble away money knowing they WG will eventually release it in the premium shop. If you disagree, its your 100$ that will fund not a tank, but boosters instead...

 

"Spoiler

http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/locations "FIND A MEETING IN YOUR AREA, SEEK SUPPORT" -Mike82198

Edited by RuRoc, 09 July 2018 - 05:39 PM.

[Dan_Deerso]

RuRoc, on 07 July 2018 - 11:04 PM, said:

2. sees there is a 5% drop rate, thinks to herself / himself / itself that if i buy 20 crates ill get 100% chance of getting said tank.

3. reality sets in 20 crates with 5% drop = 5% drop, tho you get 20 chances to drop the tank 5% of the time.

4. 20 crates becomes 30 then 40 then 50, then a rant on the forum. 

 

See, you're not exactly doing the math right, but in the opposite way from those you're complaining about.

 

The real chance you'll get the tank out of one of those crates, as has been said myriad times before, is (1 - [chance to NOT get tank] ^ [number of crates]).

 

So, if you buy 20 crates, that's (1 - 0.95 ^ 20) or 64.2% cumulative chance to get the tank at least once out of one of those crates. 

[Poptart_Pounder]

but every crate is 5%

 

no matter how many crates you buy, it will always be 5% for each crate

 ( 1 - 0.95 = .05 ) which is 5% thats one crate

 

 you repeat said process ^^^^^^^ for each crate you buy....

Dan_Deerso, on 07 July 2018 - 08:14 PM, said:

 

See, you're not exactly doing the math right, but in the opposite way from those you're complaining about.

 

The real chance you'll get the tank out of one of those crates, as has been said myriad times before, is (1 - [chance to NOT get tank] ^ [number of crates]).

 

So, if you buy 20 crates, that's (1 - 0.95 ^ 20) or 64.2% cumulative chance to get the tank at least once out of one of those crates. 

 

[gordonchau]

RuRoc, on 08 July 2018 - 03:18 AM, said:

but every crate is 5%

 

no matter how many crates you buy, it will always be 5% for each crate

 ( 1 - 0.95 = .05 ) which is 5% thats one crate

 

 you repeat said process ^^^^^^^ for each crate you buy....

 

ppl these days*sigh*

yes every crate is 5%, but we are talking about the chance of getting at least ONE tank out of ALL those crates, not EACH crate

[Sh4dowSt4lker]

Weird poll...

[_UrgleMcPurfle_]

Your math is.....a bit off, but you did hit the nail on the head in terms of WG’s business strategy with crates. Do I like it? No, but if it makes money, then no amount of community outrage will stop them because like someone (I think crusader6) said, WG is not as driven by the community (unfortunately, to a fault) than by data and results.

[I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear]

Dan_Deerso, on 07 July 2018 - 10:14 PM, said:

 

See, you're not exactly doing the math right, but in the opposite way from those you're complaining about.

 

The real chance you'll get the tank out of one of those crates, as has been said myriad times before, is (1 - [chance to NOT get tank] ^ [number of crates]).

 

So, if you buy 20 crates, that's (1 - 0.95 ^ 20) or 64.2% cumulative chance to get the tank at least once out of one of those crates. 

 

RuRoc, on 07 July 2018 - 10:18 PM, said:

but every crate is 5%

 

no matter how many crates you buy, it will always be 5% for each crate

 ( 1 - 0.95 = .05 ) which is 5% thats one crate

 

 you repeat said process ^^^^^^^ for each crate you buy....

 

 

_UrgleMcPurfle_, on 07 July 2018 - 11:41 PM, said:

Your math is.....a bit off, but you did hit the nail on the head in terms of WG’s business strategy with crates. Do I like it? No, but if it makes money, then no amount of community outrage will stop them because like someone (I think crusader6) said, WG is not as driven by the community (unfortunately, to a fault) than by data and results.

 

fcks sake... read what he typed again before assuming the math was off on purpose. This type of mindless criticism is so prevelant on the forums.

[Poptart_Pounder]

I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear, on 08 July 2018 - 01:08 AM, said:

 

 

 

fcks sake... read what he typed again before assuming the math was off on purpose. This type of mindless criticism is so prevelant on the forums.

 

Thank you, I swear the forums are full of window lickers

[Strig_999ms_brain]

Sell tanks questionable in crates

Retarded russians buy 6 trillion crates

.

.

Profit

[_Crusader6_]

I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear, on 08 July 2018 - 03:08 AM, said:

 

 

 

fcks sake... read what he typed again before assuming the math was off on purpose. This type of mindless criticism is so prevelant on the forums.

 

RuRoc, on 08 July 2018 - 05:06 AM, said:

 

Thank you, I swear the forums are full of window lickers

 

Well the math was wrong, as neither of you appear understand probability and averages.   

 

I understand what he was trying to say, but his crate math explanation was done poorly.   Which in turn made his general premise overlooked by many. 

  

Go re-read Dan Deerso’s post.  

    Yes each crate has a 5% chance. 

        But when you buy more, the probability of getting a tank from one of those crates doesn’t just stay at 5% when you buy more than one crate.   

 

Yes crates are generally a bad deal - like any sort of gambling, the House always wins, but if you play enough, you can get the odds up that you are more likely to ‘win’.   

 

If he corrected the math, the argument would make a lot more sense. 

 

[SanguinaryDan]

What ever our personal math might be, it is obviously quite profitable for WG. So if you can afford to spend the money on the chance to win a tank, then I hope you do.  If you can’t or won’t?  Then you won’t.  But [edited]* and moaning about it on the forum has only one outcome. It makes you think you have the power to effect and so feel better about the situation. You are wrong, but you “feel” better about it.  Hobbies require disposable income.  By which I mean cash and/or time.  Sometimes you’ll have no choice but to expend more of one than the other.  Regardless, the more disposable income you have the more deeply you can afford to become involved.

 

Sorry to blather on.  But I’m getting frustrated that otherwise reasonably intelligent people can’t understand that even though it is just a game, the company that makes the game does so purely to make a profit. They aren’t trying to screw anybody. They offer a product and if you want to pay for it they’ve done their job well. 

 

*female dog+ing gets censored?  

Edited by SanguinaryDan, 08 July 2018 - 01:09 PM.

[fever872]

Well the odds never seem to be in my favor lol

 

[I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear]

RuRoc, on 08 July 2018 - 05:06 AM, said:

 

Thank you, I swear the forums are full of window lickers

You're not wrong

[dport02]

Ya not matter what people always buy them.

[anonym_sIlFGOSMAtmm]

__Crusader6__, on 08 July 2018 - 11:37 AM, said:

 

 

Well the math was wrong, as neither of you appear understand probability and averages.   

 

I understand what he was trying to say, but his crate math explanation was done poorly.   Which in turn made his general premise overlooked by many. 

  

Go re-read Dan Deerso’s post.  

    Yes each crate has a 5% chance. 

        But when you buy more, the probability of getting a tank from one of those crates doesn’t just stay at 5% when you buy more than one crate.   

 

Yes crates are generally a bad deal - like any sort of gambling, the House always wins, but if you play enough, you can get the odds up that you are more likely to ‘win’.   

 

If he corrected the math, the argument would make a lot more sense. 

 

 

+1

 

RuRoc, on 08 July 2018 - 10:06 AM, said:

 

Thank you, I swear the forums are full of window lickers

 

-1

I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear, on 08 July 2018 - 08:08 AM, said:

 

 

 

fcks sake... read what he typed again before assuming the math was off on purpose. This type of mindless criticism is so prevelant on the forums.

 

-1

 

some people gamble because they dont know the math behind this ... and i don't think you two understand it.

[Boomer_Von_Doom_II]

This is hurting my head...too many numbers...I'm not that outstanding with math...I'll just stay away from crates.

[I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear]

Omfg I actually can't believe I have to explain this... its like 5th grade level reading comprehension. I know I call out some "forumers" for being complete rocks, but at this point, its like 99% of you idiots failed english or something. 

 

Player bases perspective  - NOT HIS LOGIC AND REASONING, ITS THE LOGIC AND REASONING OF THE PLAYERBASE

1. Buy crates for  juicy looking tank

2. sees there is a 5% drop rate, thinks to herself / himself / itself that if i buy 20 crates ill get 100% chance of getting said tank. - AGAIN, THE LOGIC AND REASONING OF THE PLAYERBASE

3. reality sets in 20 crates with 5% drop = 5% drop, tho you get 20 chances to drop the tank 5% of the time. - HOW THE MATH ACTUALLY WORKS.

[_Aiyu]

no matter how much crates u get, the chances of the tanks drop rate is still only 5% each. did most of these people even pass high school? your chances of getting it doesnt increase

[I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear]

To further clarify, as I don't think full caps in bolded font with yellow highlighting is clear enough for some of you, the second point, (2.), is THE WRONG MATH, ON PURPOSE, TO REPRESENT THE THINKING OF THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAYERBASE. The third point, (3.), if you can comprehend the complexity of the grammar, REPRESENTS THE CORRECT MATH BEHIND CRATES. 

[_Toast]

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