36 replies to this topic

[_Witcher]

I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear, on 08 July 2018 - 12:59 PM, said:

Omfg I actually can't believe I have to explain this... its like 5th grade level reading comprehension. I know I call out some "forumers" for being complete rocks, but at this point, its like 99% of you idiots failed english or something. 

 

Player bases perspective  - NOT HIS LOGIC AND REASONING, ITS THE LOGIC AND REASONING OF THE PLAYERBASE

1. Buy crates for  juicy looking tank

2. sees there is a 5% drop rate, thinks to herself / himself / itself that if i buy 20 crates ill get 100% chance of getting said tank. - AGAIN, THE LOGIC AND REASONING OF THE PLAYERBASE

3. reality sets in 20 crates with 5% drop = 5% drop, tho you get 20 chances to drop the tank 5% of the time. - HOW THE MATH ACTUALLY WORKS.

 

__Crusader6__, on 08 July 2018 - 04:37 AM, said:

 

 

Well the math was wrong, as neither of you appear understand probability and averages.   

 

I understand what he was trying to say, but his crate math explanation was done poorly.   Which in turn made his general premise overlooked by many. 

  

Go re-read Dan Deerso’s post.  

    Yes each crate has a 5% chance. 

        But when you buy more, the probability of getting a tank from one of those crates doesn’t just stay at 5% when you buy more than one crate.   

 

Yes crates are generally a bad deal - like any sort of gambling, the House always wins, but if you play enough, you can get the odds up that you are more likely to ‘win’.   

 

If he corrected the math, the argument would make a lot more sense. 

 

Let me enlighten you on logic, x = .05

 

you buy 5 crates of x

 

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

Spoiler

 if you buy 100 crates you still have a 5% chance of getting it per crate, you can open any number of crates and the number of 5% wont change. If you cant understand that then you might need to check out khan academy https://youtu.be/uzkc-qNVoOk

 

 

[_Aiyu]

RuRoc, on 08 July 2018 - 03:17 PM, said:

 

Let me enlighten you on logic, x = .05

 

you buy 5 crates of x

 

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

Spoiler

 if you buy 100 crates you still have a 5% chance of getting it per crate, you can open any number of crates and the number of 5% wont change. If you cant understand that then you might need to check out khan academy https://youtu.be/uzkc-qNVoOk

 

 

 

i dont think old people are good with electronic learning

[Dan_Deerso]

RuRoc, on 08 July 2018 - 04:17 PM, said:

 

Let me enlighten you on logic, x = .05

 

you buy 5 crates of x

 

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

Spoiler

 if you buy 100 crates you still have a 5% chance of getting it per crate, you can open any number of crates and the number of 5% wont change. If you cant understand that then you might need to check out khan academy https://youtu.be/uzkc-qNVoOk

 

 

 

Yes. Crate number 6 is still gonna be 5%. 

 

The chances of getting the tank ONCE out of ANY OF YOUR CRATES is not going to be 5%.

 

Feel free to believe me or not, I've already broken down the math (the correct way) for you in post #2.

[_Witcher]

Dan_Deerso, on 08 July 2018 - 01:43 PM, said:

 

Yes. Crate number 6 is still gonna be 5%. 

 

The chances of getting the tank ONCE out of ANY OF YOUR CRATES is not going to be 5%.

 

Feel free to believe me or not, I've already broken down the math (the correct way) for you in post #2.

Quite frankly i could give less of a **** ,  its not my point of view, the whole topic was viewing both sides of the picture on the topic of crate tanks, that's why the title of the topic is : General view on crate tanks

 

Edited by RuRoc, 08 July 2018 - 09:32 PM.

[Ookla_the_Mok]

This thread represents most of what is wrong with this forum/playerbase/game.

[BorisBaddenov]

I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear, on 08 July 2018 - 11:59 AM, said:

Omfg I actually can't believe I have to explain this... its like 5th grade level reading comprehension. I know I call out some "forumers" for being complete rocks, but at this point, its like 99% of you idiots failed english or something. 

 

Player bases perspective  - NOT HIS LOGIC AND REASONING, ITS THE LOGIC AND REASONING OF THE PLAYERBASE

1. Buy crates for  juicy looking tank

2. sees there is a 5% drop rate, thinks to herself / himself / itself that if i buy 20 crates ill get 100% chance of getting said tank. - AGAIN, THE LOGIC AND REASONING OF THE PLAYERBASE

3. reality sets in 20 crates with 5% drop = 5% drop, tho you get 20 chances to drop the tank 5% of the time. - HOW THE MATH ACTUALLY WORKS.

 

I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear, on 08 July 2018 - 12:10 PM, said:

To further clarify, as I don't think full caps in bolded font with yellow highlighting is clear enough for some of you, the second point, (2.), is THE WRONG MATH, ON PURPOSE, TO REPRESENT THE THINKING OF THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAYERBASE. The third point, (3.), if you can comprehend the complexity of the grammar, REPRESENTS THE CORRECT MATH BEHIND CRATES. 

Your math in number three is incorrect.   Taken individually, each crate gives a 5% chance.   Taken collectively, your percentage will be much different, as it was explained above.

 

 

Peace-

Boris

[__Crusader6__]

RuRoc, on 08 July 2018 - 03:17 PM, said:

 

Let me enlighten you on logic, x = .05

 

you buy 5 crates of x

 

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

(.05)

Spoiler

 if you buy 100 crates you still have a 5% chance of getting it per crate, you can open any number of crates and the number of 5% wont change. If you cant understand that then you might need to check out khan academy https://youtu.be/uzkc-qNVoOk

 

 

 

Cleatly you are stupid beyond any hope.  

   Read what I wrote. 

 

Perhaps look at it this way. 

  You have a six sided dice. 

  Rolling it once has a 1.666666667 chance of coming up a 1 

    Roll it 20 times -  still think you only have a 1.666666667 chance of getting a 1? 

 

Dan did your math for you.  

 

The chance PER crate does not change - but each additional crate increases the chance in ONE of the crates you do open having a tank. 

 

I think crates are retarded, but I think you might just be dumber.   

 

 

 

[__Crusader6__]

I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear, on 08 July 2018 - 02:59 PM, said:

Omfg I actually can't believe I have to explain this... its like 5th grade level reading comprehension. I know I call out some "forumers" for being complete rocks, but at this point, its like 99% of you idiots failed english or something. 

 

Player bases perspective  - NOT HIS LOGIC AND REASONING, ITS THE LOGIC AND REASONING OF THE PLAYERBASE

1. Buy crates for  juicy looking tank

2. sees there is a 5% drop rate, thinks to herself / himself / itself that if i buy 20 crates ill get 100% chance of getting said tank. - AGAIN, THE LOGIC AND REASONING OF THE PLAYERBASE

3. reality sets in 20 crates with 5% drop = 5% drop, tho you get 20 chances to drop the tank 5% of the time. - HOW THE MATH ACTUALLY WORKS.

 

Yes and what does that work out to chance wise over 20 crates, hint is is not 5% 

[I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear]

__Crusader6__, on 08 July 2018 - 05:33 PM, said:

 

Yes and what does that work out to chance wise over 20 crates, hint is is not 5% 

 

20 crates of 5% each. Every crate opened is a 5% chance. 20 chances to drop the tank, each crate - 5% chance. Again, he's not talking about the total probability of all the crates combined.

[__Crusader6__]

I_Am_Not_Toxic_I_Swear, on 08 July 2018 - 06:12 PM, said:

 

20 crates of 5% each. Every crate opened is a 5% chance. 20 chances to drop the tank, each crate - 5% chance. Again, he's not talking about the total probability of all the crates combined.

 

Well he can’t read then.   I bolded the part about each crate - and he came back blathering. 

  He was the one who posted the 5% math and got angry when called on it.  

 

I understood what he was to point out.   

    The problem is his argument failed on the math.  

 

Personally I think crates are dumb and wouldn’t gamble on them, but I understand how enticing they could be for someone who can’t think critically. 

 

I also think likelihood that folks dumping cash/gold into crates will increase the cost of the tank in the store.  

   WG has pretty set ideas of what the ‘valie’ Is for certain tier premiums. 

  We have also seen that often the cost is higher for initial sale and lowers as the tank gets sold again and again and becomes more common.

 

At the end of the day, friends don’t let friends buy crates.   

 

 

 

    

[Alex__O]

This is hilarious

[anonym_sIlFGOSMAtmm]

a serious poker player should know the essential hand winning odds.

[Rou_Garou]

this way is better:

If you don't buy any crates you have a 0% chance of getting a tank, but you have 100% chance of keeping your money and saying to WG "I am not the fool you think I am.!  Guaranteed 100% chance....Try It!

[CA_vampire]

This thread proves that having 60% win rate does not really mean you have a functioning brain! 

 

[gordonchau]

his 3 is correct, but he's not explaining anything as he is still saying that each crate is 5%, which is what 2 is about.

 

if he actually typed "tho you get 20 chances to drop the tank 5% of the time, so the chance of you getting at least one tank out of all crates are..." it would have been much clearer

[Wombeer]

Oh dear, more people with a mental block on understanding cumulative probability. This is rich. And WG is also rich. xD

As always, the coin flip is the go-to abstraction to bring this home. If you flip a coin one million times, is the probability that you get at least (minimum) one “tails” out of that million series 50%? If you think it is, I have a bridge to sell you. Incidentally, each of those million flips DOES have a 50% chance of coming up heads. Think it through.

The crates are the exact same setup, slightly different scenario (number of trials and probability).

[_Witcher]

CA_vampire, on 09 July 2018 - 12:38 AM, said:

This thread proves that having 60% win rate does not really mean you have a functioning brain! 

 

 

you right, but having a 66% win rate looks better than having a 53.97%, 

Edited by RuRoc, 09 July 2018 - 04:58 PM.