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What's your average swing?

WN8 WR

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Herbie_N124 #1 Posted 03 August 2018 - 07:09 PM

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So ever since I started paying attention to stats I've noticed my periodic WR looks like an EKG printout.    I just started paying attention to whatever tf WN8 is, and have seen mine swing from near 1800 to 1400 on the 30-day, over the course of about the last week. 

I was prepping my acceptance speech to the super secret society of cool kids when my career WR hit 49.2, but as quick as anything it fell to almost 49 even, now back to 49.16.   

Do y'all swing this much or am I committing some type of nub mistakes?  (other than the 27% survival...the paper thin Bromwell is my love and downfall at the same time)

I imagine my recent stupidly painful grind up the Chinese medium line didn't help.   

Is MM rigged specifically to keep ol' Herb down?  :hiding:

please opine . . . 


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Fu_Manchu_ #2 Posted 03 August 2018 - 07:13 PM

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My 30-day win rate swings about 6%. My shorter term win rate (according to blitzbot, which I access through our discord server) swings much more wildly with about 30% difference between my lowest and highest that I can recall.

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cheasesteak #3 Posted 03 August 2018 - 07:25 PM

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My 30 day tends to wander about within a 5% range, and has since about early 2016.  I think I have peaked.   I don't pay much attention to my other stats.

 

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Kade18 #4 Posted 03 August 2018 - 07:32 PM

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If it’s swinging then either you’ve hit ur max skill lvl which at 49% I really hope you haven’t because being completely honest that’s sad, basically what I’m saying is you aren’t putting in the effort to get better and break bad habits, don’t blame tanks on ur losses because all tanks can be competitive and played at at least a 60% winrate if you apply urself 
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_Weeping_Angel_ #5 Posted 03 August 2018 - 07:45 PM

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View PostKade18, on 03 August 2018 - 01:32 PM, said:

If it’s swinging then either you’ve hit ur max skill lvl which at 49% I really hope you haven’t because being completely honest that’s sad, basically what I’m saying is you aren’t putting in the effort to get better and break bad habits, don’t blame tanks on ur losses because all tanks can be competitive and played at at least a 60% winrate if you apply urself 

 

Wrong on so many levels.  Swing is part of any game like this.  You cannot win 100% of the time when you have 13 other players to deal with.  The player base changes minute to minute with new people logging in and out of game.  You will hit stretches where the other players are down right horrible so you cannot win no matter how good you play and other times where you can do no wrong.  You will have sessions where it harder to win than others.  This will even out over time to show your teue abilities. Even after 40k games my WR goes down slightly in short spurts when I have a bad session or two but is still slowly creeping up each month.  

 

The swing is called variance when collecting data (your WR).  The smaller the sample size the more variance you can get.  Looking day to day you will see a wider swing or variance vs a week vs a month.  That is why lots on here will only look at 30/60/90 day periods to see if they are improving.  That gives enough time to get enough games played to remove the variance/swings that can happen in the game.

 

Stick to the forums, read the reviews, guides, and watch good players play the game and things will keep moving up in your stats.

 

 


Edited by _Weeping_Angel_, 04 August 2018 - 02:23 PM.


Herbie_N124 #6 Posted 03 August 2018 - 08:05 PM

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View PostKade18, on 03 August 2018 - 07:32 PM, said:

If it’s swinging then either you’ve hit ur max skill lvl which at 49% I really hope you haven’t because being completely honest that’s sad, basically what I’m saying is you aren’t putting in the effort to get better and break bad habits, don’t blame tanks on ur losses because all tanks can be competitive and played at at least a 60% winrate if you apply urself 

 

Yeah simmer down m8.    I'm always here looking for advice.   I never blamed a loss on a tank, I acknowledge there are some tanks I don't do very well in.   The Cromwell B happens to be one of them, absolute stupid fun to play, I perform slightly less than mediocre in it.   I wanted to grind China for a change of pace and to have a goal.  Turns out I don't play Chinese mediums well.   

And yes, the game can be more fun the better you play.   But there are those nights you're distracted by other humans in the same room who try to communicate with you, which can get far more serious when you're married to one of them.  

 

Grammar  is far more important than WR though, my good man.  

But as for the game, like in life, I am only limited by not realizing what mistakes I'm making yet.  

 


It's a game, not a d!ck.   Don't take it so hard.  

Gavidoc01 #7 Posted 03 August 2018 - 08:46 PM

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My weekly swing is around 3-4% discounting outliers. My 30/60/90 on average is more stable ranging between 1-2%. 

Edited by Gavidoc01, 03 August 2018 - 08:46 PM.

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Fu_Manchu_ #8 Posted 03 August 2018 - 08:49 PM

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View PostKade18, on 03 August 2018 - 12:32 PM, said:

If it’s swinging then either you’ve hit ur max skill lvl which at 49% I really hope you haven’t because being completely honest that’s sad, basically what I’m saying is you aren’t putting in the effort to get better and break bad habits, don’t blame tanks on ur losses because all tanks can be competitive and played at at least a 60% winrate if you apply urself 

 

That was uncalled for and, to be honest, pretty damn stupid. If you don't understand that not everyone has the same physical ability and that some people may not physically be capable of being a high level player, then you need to think this over some more. Tank/map knowledge and strategy/tactics are only part of the equation. Some things cannot be learned and can only be refined through practice and not to the same certain extent for all people.

 

Herbie is a good guy who makes good posts seeking help and advice. Then you come in like a buttwipe rubbing his stats in his face.


Edited by Fu_Manchu_, 03 August 2018 - 09:25 PM.

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LordManaz #9 Posted 03 August 2018 - 09:20 PM

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Blitzstars is in drugs, today i win 39% of battles but the wn8 went from 2,590 to 2,630... it mean that web page is inaccurate

Edited by LordManaz, 03 August 2018 - 09:25 PM.

 

Maybe the worst noob in NA

 


bg2b #10 Posted 03 August 2018 - 09:38 PM

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Assuming you have about a 50% "true" WR, you should expect to see swings of approximately +/- sqrt(number of games) over a given period.  (That's approximately the 95% confidence interval).  So over 100 games, you shouldn't be too surprised to win somewhere between 40 and 60 of them.  If you play 400 games at your 50% rate, you'll usually win between 180 and 220.

Dan_Deerso #11 Posted 03 August 2018 - 10:02 PM

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You've hit a mental block to your next level of playing. Just keep on going, and sooner or later that grey matter might sort it out for you.

 

I've had various plateaus myself, at 55%, 60%, 63%, 65%, 67%, so on. It flattens out for a while, then you have a "eureka" moment, and it starts climbing again.



Fu_Manchu_ #12 Posted 03 August 2018 - 10:18 PM

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View PostDan_Deerso, on 03 August 2018 - 03:02 PM, said:

You've hit a mental block to your next level of playing. Just keep on going, and sooner or later that grey matter might sort it out for you.

 

I've had various plateaus myself, at 55%, 60%, 63%, 65%, 67%, so on. It flattens out for a while, then you have a "eureka" moment, and it starts climbing again.

 

I've had that too. First at around 59% and now at just below 61%. Mine seem to be closer to each other than yours, which makes me suspect that my overall ceiling will be lower than your is.

AKA HanYolo_.


_Crusader6_ #13 Posted 03 August 2018 - 10:28 PM

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View PostLordManaz, on 03 August 2018 - 04:20 PM, said:

Blitzstars is in drugs, today i win 39% of battles but the wn8 went from 2,590 to 2,630... it mean that web page is inaccurate

 

Wn8 doesn’t correlate linearly to WR 
 

 
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Absolute_Sniper #14 Posted 04 August 2018 - 12:08 AM

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Every stat other than WR has been steadily improving for me for the last year. WR is the one I can’t seem to keep improving on. I just have faith that eventually it will follow the rest of my trends.

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Way_over_my_head #15 Posted 04 August 2018 - 12:29 AM

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View PostHerbie_N124, on 03 August 2018 - 02:09 PM, said:

So ever since I started paying attention to stats I've noticed my periodic WR looks like an EKG printout.    I just started paying attention to whatever tf WN8 is, and have seen mine swing from near 1800 to 1400 on the 30-day, over the course of about the last week. 

I was prepping my acceptance speech to the super secret society of cool kids when my career WR hit 49.2, but as quick as anything it fell to almost 49 even, now back to 49.16.   

Do y'all swing this much or am I committing some type of nub mistakes?  (other than the 27% survival...the paper thin Bromwell is my love and downfall at the same time)

I imagine my recent stupidly painful grind up the Chinese medium line didn't help.   

Is MM rigged specifically to keep ol' Herb down?  :hiding:

please opine . . . 

 

Hey Herbie, I think I know exactly what your talking about. My gameplay is pretty consistent, not that it’s all that or a bag of chips, but it’s pretty consistent. I don’t subscribe to any conspiracy theories against me with MM but it is easy to see the patterns. My winrate has been the same whole number (62) for well over a year, but the tenths and hundredths go slowly up, but in that sawtooth pattern you mention. To me, it’s fairly conclusive that if I get a good run, it will then put me at low tier 75-80% of the games and with teammates with “challenging” win rates. It doesn’t bother me too much, because it’s the same case for everyone else. So I would say: yes, it is rigged, but not to keep you down, it’s rigged for all of us. There are people who have 70%+ winrates out there (and even a few who aren’t rerolls I assume!), but I’m not one of them, and that’s ok! My regression to the mean is about 62-64% and that is working my butt off, and doing the very best that I can, therefore it satisfies me. I’ll keep trying to increase the old WR, but not at the expense of enjoying the game.

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trogvision #16 Posted 04 August 2018 - 12:52 AM

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I don't pay much attention to my stats on blitzstars. I'm pretty sure my swings are no good.

Edited by trogvision, 04 August 2018 - 04:30 AM.

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LordManaz #17 Posted 04 August 2018 - 02:32 AM

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View PostAbsolute_Sniper, on 03 August 2018 - 07:08 PM, said:

Every stat other than WR has been steadily improving for me for the last year. WR is the one I can’t seem to keep improving on. I just have faith that eventually it will follow the rest of my trends.

 

​i have 4 weeks with the same WR

 

Maybe the worst noob in NA

 


Gavidoc01 #18 Posted 04 August 2018 - 11:43 AM

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View PostDan_Deerso, on 03 August 2018 - 05:02 PM, said:

You've hit a mental block to your next level of playing. Just keep on going, and sooner or later that grey matter might sort it out for you.

 

I've had various plateaus myself, at 55%, 60%, 63%, 65%, 67%, so on. It flattens out for a while, then you have a "eureka" moment, and it starts climbing again.

 

Dan brings up a good point. You will hit the glass barrier at certain points and unless you identify ways to improve your play you will eventually hit your ceiling. Like Dan mine were around the following. 55, 59, 63 and my longest was and most recent was 65.8.

 

Took over a year to break that glass wall. 


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Strig_999ms_brain #19 Posted 04 August 2018 - 05:53 PM

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WR always swing back and forth from 65% to 60% and then again to 65% and then yet again back down to 60%.

WN8 stays between 2750-3000 range.


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 "In this game you’re either a predator or you’re prey.

 Prey doesn’t win at the same ratio as the predators because prey doesn’t have the same attitude. Unfortunately their are are not enough predators to keep the prey in check and  the prey is running rampant. Prey doesn’t care about WR, either directly or indirectly. Thats why they do what they want, that’s why the game has been dumbed down and  that’s why MH was brought about. Without a check it will continuously get worse until the predators are extinct" 4sfield


nicog45 #20 Posted 04 August 2018 - 06:01 PM

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View Post__Crusader6__, on 03 August 2018 - 05:28 PM, said:

 

Wn8 doesn’t correlate linearly to WR 

 

Can confirm. Have thirty day WR of 59.81 and thirty day WN8 of 3140.

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